Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[silversurfer]

On ENRC debacle
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...uy-into-ENRC-ahead-of-potential-takeover.html

there is unlikely to be any other bidder as the parties in the consortium already own 55pc of group equity. This means there is unlikely to be a significant premium offered. Indeed, it is entirely possible that any initial offer is below the current share price.

Miners are out of favour among investors as they are suffering a margin squeeze prompted by rising costs and falling commodity prices.



Perhaps the bigger winners from a takeover are likely to be investors in copper group Kazakhmys, which owns 26pc of ENRC.

City analysts reckon it is likely that this holding will also be part of the offer


this would give Kazakhmys’s balance sheet a nice $1.5bn boost.

^^ I will take some KAZ as it does fit the 61% fib retracement bullish scenario if taking thurs low to fri high. Just some TA mumbo jumbo, strength in a weak stock can be profitable (like the 50p double bottom on BARC) but I think they are ok fundamentally in any case

Alternative ideas would be DGO CEY AAZ RRL at 3p and Apple

 

[mayweather12]

Out of interest, I've been recently been looking at both RBS and Lloyds for the very long term 5 - 10 year+, what are your opinions, seem cheap in the grand scheme of things and there has been talks of the gov aiming for a 60p sell price?

 

[isonomicjedi]

Got out of British Land this morning 2500 @ 588p having bought them at 532p

I know it is risky but bought another 3500 of Kaz @ 357.2

set a sell order at 386p for these which I reckon it should hit by Monday/Tuesday as I might be away from screen at medical appointments Mon & Tues

 

[silversurfer]

A quick look at KAZ chart/volume suggests the blip down to 300 was false, more fear then substance. Good upside volume so far
Still its all very uncertain, will they gain from any deal is largely down to an autonomous type government and its various oligarchs. Price once again dribbles sideways
Pie in the sky target for levelling off after the dive (OBV) I think at least 510 to 540, you meant 486 I guess

RBS and Lloyds for the very long term 5 - 10 year+, what are your opinions, seem cheap in the grand scheme of things and there has been talks of the gov aiming for a 60p sell price?

By proxy we all own a bit of both. If they failed, your tax would be a few percent higher maybe. Nothing outright is that likely so range bound, but which range
Gov bought at certain prices, so to break even thats the price you heard about.
Very long term I agree they'll survive - however they are hardly the type to buy and forget about. I think they are wild swings to both still.

Lloyds is a mortgage play and UK has population growth, etc
RBS is more global so harder to judge but they own DLG still. Large part of both share values is about debt cost liquidity, funding - politics.

In 2008 HBOS had to find 200bn in 1 year and we know how that went. BB didnt go broke, they were insolvent but for a bank thats close enough. So its complicated, both are potentially not well funded afaik but with gov support np Gov itself is not that well funded

Seems cheap but its complicated so thats why. Lloyds has a great CEO I reckon, character of leadership is one way to judge any firm If he wasnt just the icing I would be very bullish
Santander and Stanard Chartered are what I own in the main, both pay well in theory foreign banking is higher risk but in this context I reckon its far easier to call cheap
another 12 months to get CNR to 'bankable' feasibility study mining is so slow

Is the Range 'merger' a good deal or are they selling out ?

TW. Have had a great 3 months, 50p back then

I remember them at 6p a few years ago. 94p today

 

[mayweather12]

Lloyds is a mortgage play and UK has population growth, etc
RBS is more global so harder to judge but they own DLG still. Large part of both share values is about debt cost liquidity, funding - politics.

Thanks, would you say Lloyds are on an upwards cycle right now, i.e. expensive to buy at 53p, today, or wait for a dip?...Looks relatively positive with CEO mentioning div's returning in 2014 possibly, and he is acting rather positive in terms of speaking of large profits coming back now.

 

[silversurfer]

If it wasnt for PFI they'd have made a profit. To me I think they just need people to pay their mortgages, if they get too many defaults they could really sink as the original problem remains: short term debt long term asset worth - housing, etc

If they can juggle it, they'll profit. Its pretty certain, housing has a gigantic subsidy on it. Margins are great for them, Buffet talked about this in 2008 after Lehmans. Big problems but the actual business is throwing off cash better then ever, in many types of banking and then they have a cellar of rotten stock also

Lloyds 60p is the pivot, cheap under that and over that is an optimistic market. They went to 20p, you are a bit late in theory.
The div is just a flag, they can pay it today if they want but laws had directly stopped them in the past.
So paying a div is raising a flag of good health, etc A div gives no gain in of itself. Some income funds may pick up the shares that cannot now

List of divs and how much that negates the share price - http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/dividends.php

Lloyds used to pay 35p dividend, they can do that again some day imo. UK does need more housing, USA or Ireland really can go without it and they have so much spare land but I think as a product its a UK growth sector still long term

Nice dividends recently were FRES and SL. If you want income seriously look at them, SL was sub 240p for a long time and its near 400 now but might even be ok value buying a bit every month ? Avoid tunnel vision I think is my advice, a lot of stocks are cheap, the Lloyds CEO is steering an iceberg with an outboard motor
Apple is a good dividend, no real debt. Its a lot simpler to consider its prospects.
All the banks hold government debt as security, this is a real time bomb in theory as these bonds have risen exponentially.
So thats the biggest reason not to buy or to expect 20p again. I sold RBS recently and it rose Barc topped 330, above 260 thats positive

Lloyds are on an upwards cycle right now

Yes and I want to buy 45p but the market in general is toppy and I got people saying crash ahead (stall) which I guess at least means 40p possible

Spoiler

2013:

 

[mayweather12]

If it wasnt for PFI they'd have made a profit. To me I think they just need people to pay their mortgages, if they get too many defaults they could really sink as the original problem remains: short term debt long term asset worth - housing, etc

If they can juggle it, they'll profit. Its pretty certain, housing has a gigantic subsidy on it. Margins are great for them, Buffet talked about this in 2008 after Lehmans. Big problems but the actual business is throwing off cash better then ever, in many types of banking and then they have a cellar of rotten stock also

Lloyds 60p is the pivot, cheap under that and over that is an optimistic market. They went to 20p, you are a bit late in theory.
The div is just a flag, they can pay it today if they want but laws had directly stopped them in the past.
So paying a div is raising a flag of good health, etc A div gives no gain in of itself. Some income funds may pick up the shares that cannot now

List of divs and how much that negates the share price - http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/dividends.php

Lloyds used to pay 35p dividend, they can do that again some day imo. UK does need more housing, USA or Ireland really can go without it and they have so much spare land but I think as a product its a UK growth sector still long term

Nice dividends recently were FRES and SL. If you want income seriously look at them, SL was sub 240p for a long time and its near 400 now but might even be ok value buying a bit every month ? Avoid tunnel vision I think is my advice, a lot of stocks are cheap, the Lloyds CEO is steering an iceberg with an outboard motor
Apple is a good dividend, no real debt. Its a lot simpler to consider its prospects.
All the banks hold government debt as security, this is a real time bomb in theory as these bonds have risen exponentially.
So thats the biggest reason not to buy or to expect 20p again. I sold RBS recently and it rose Barc topped 330, above 260 thats positive


Yes and I want to buy 45p but the market in general is toppy and I got people saying crash ahead (stall) which I guess at least means 40p possible

Do appreciate your knowledge, how long have you been interested in the markets? I'm a relative newbie, studying Economics at a decent university, but not experiencing any 'real life' knowledge throughout uni yet. Yes, like I said, I was saying 54p seems expensive, but at 40p it seems fair again, possible drop tomorrow on earnings, I am hoping, they may have something 'poor' to report even if it isn't to do with earnings, which are expected to be high.

 

[isonomicjedi]

Looks like I got out of British Land (BLND) a day or two early @ 588p as they hit 603p today but I'm happy with profit.

Definitely looks very near the top though.

Having trouble working out how to use Excel in Office 2010 so starting from scrath with my charting.

 

[Cavallino]

May I ask why are you using Excel? Don't you have any access to charting features with your trading platform?

 

[AndrewNR]

ADVFN and iii etc have lots of free tools rather than importing and manipulating data on Excel.

 

[isonomicjedi]

May I ask why are you using Excel? Don't you have any access to charting features with your trading platform?

ADVFN and iii etc have lots of free tools rather than importing and manipulating data on Excel

Its just the way I've always done it and as I have plenty of time on my hands I find it fun.

Also keeps my hand in at excel as I'm now having to learn how to use Office 2010

 

[Cavallino]

Fair comment. Is it easy to create EMAs using data? Where do you get your raw data from?

 

[isonomicjedi]

Fair comment. Is it easy to create EMAs using data? Where do you get your raw data from?

Used to be a site (forgot name but it shut down) I could auto-scrape the prices from into my worksheet but until I find a new one I'm doing it manually from my portfolio.


I find it far easier to make my own charts and have them exactly as I want. Once they are up and running they take care of themselves using dynamic ranges.

I usually have 20 charts for each product I am looking at. Used to take an hour or so for each now its a bit longer til I get used to Office 2010

 

[isonomicjedi]

Hers a little better look at the resistance of British Land using the MACD & Signal line of 12 + 50 Day exponential moving average with price.

I probably sold 2 or 3 days early but never mind I made near 10% profit on £14700

 

[Cavallino]

Thanks.

Wow an hour? Takes like what... five seconds with the charting interface on IG Index (of course that's a spread bet platform).
Of course if you are happy to do it and improve your excel skills then that's a bonus of course (but for me half of my daily work is using excel!)

 

[isonomicjedi]

I meant an hour to set up each product initially then it takes care of itself.

 

[Cavallino]

Ah gotcha.
If you wouldn't mind sending me an example of said sheet/charts? Would very much like to see how you set them up.

 

[silversurfer]

I could use that on Condor. Nobody really lists that share or the proper data, not exactly sure why

I'll tell you a good one to work out is VWAP. Which really requires paid info, I have done it buts its hassle.
The reason why you want it is companies themselves use it to trade, AGM agenda often mentions buying or issuing shares but not above 5 day price or whatever, they track averages and so do others but it dont show up on free sites.

Doves set to maul bears

Spoiler

Doves set to maul bears

European equity markets are set to open higher as expectations that words from this weeks central banks will be littered with dovish comments.

Optimism in the equity markets yesterday was fuelled by expectations that central banks around the world would come to the rescue stuttering economies with yet more monetary stimulus. Some pundits are putting the prospect of the ECB rate cut on Thursday as a reason for the European ramp moves higher but this has been on the cards for a long while and priced in for some time. The real issue is if they can do anything else to promote growth in the region. Mario Draghi has stated that he is looking at “various tools” to bolster the euro zone but he has also stated the ECB is reaching its operational limits and considering the ideological clash amongst its members that curtails his options; it doesn’t look like there is much more to follow.

The real hope this week is the Fed, and looking at the broad weakness in the dollar yesterday, it looks as though markets believe it is they who will provide the stimulus to keep the bulls going. Expectations were that they would start scaling back on quantitative easing some time this year but following the run of weak economic data and low inflation; the Fed now has the justification and leeway to keep the presses running.

Signs of a stuttering US economic growth seen last week fuelled renewed speculation the Federal Reserve will at least maintain its commitment to bond buying at its meeting on Wednesday. On the other hand the housing sector is on the mend with the pending home sales figures rising 1.5% versus estimates of 1.1% increase. That pushed the Dow Jones 106 points higher to 14,813.

Amid widespread expectations the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to a record 0.5% from 0.75%, the euro surged 47 pips against the greenback yesterday to $1.3098. The rally was supported by news that Italy which finally saw the forming of a government was able to sell five and ten year bonds at the lowest yield since 2010

Growth seems to be the name of the game in the eyes of officials on both sides of the Atlantic. The ECB is predicted to cut while the Fed is seen reiterating its easing stance. The result was heightened optimism in the energy sector with investors pushing the WTI crude prices $1.69 to $94.38. A weaker US dollar was also a bullish feature.

With fear of inflation nowhere in sight it was left to the monetary stimulus back in focus to reignite demand for gold as an alternative asset class. In addition, the climb of $10.2 to $1476.4 for the precious metal was also supported by ongoing news of a pickup in jewellery demand especially from Asia.

I'm a relative newbie, studying Economics at a decent university

Since the eighties, I did Biz studies in high school also stats. Street smarts work best.
The Lehmans CDO guys had PHd in maths, but they stepped on the basics. LTCM etc

Peter Lynch says go draw with crayons, if it still makes sense invest


GOld filled the gap, the idea being nothing falls in a straight line. So every price is lit now it can reach new ones for the year many presume down. All I know is gold moves like a juggernaut, it needs to back up some first and then gain speed to break, up or down

BP up 4% on results, just like that. Now Im appearing real stupid not taking the low. appears strong/justified
I'll take some ABG, its ex wed and I think acting ok especially if gold stayed up more then down

Spoiler

BLND good trend, Macd lower and resistance. yep probably a decent sell in general especially if news matched. Buy at 200dma ?

 

[isonomicjedi]

Ah gotcha.
If you wouldn't mind sending me an example of said sheet/charts? Would very much like to see how you set them up.

You need to trust me so I can email your workbook

 

[mayweather12]

Yes and I want to buy 45p but the market in general is toppy and I got people saying crash ahead (stall) which I guess at least means 40p possible

Out of interest, is my understanding correct, if LLOY was to buy back their stake from the government, would the shares get even greater diluted hence sending the price to fall like a stone? - Obviously in the long term it is in the best interest for LLOY to become privatised again. Just a query. - By the way, you think that everything seems to be rather swimming at the moment, that something may come and eat away at these rather high gains we've seen lately?