Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Eulogy said:
Let's hope so :)

I didn't put anything into RBS because I don't trust them, but maybe I will regret that choice

Oh btw if anyone is interested I trade through Hargreaves Lansdown, can do all trading online etc
Click to expand...

RBS doing well today!

Oil companies are pretty safe - oil price is at a record low and combined with the current economy they are 'low'. However even if they don't change in value the dividend is still very good.
 
Simon said:
RBS doing well today!

Oil companies are pretty safe - oil price is at a record low and combined with the current economy they are 'low'. However even if they don't change in value the dividend is still very good.
Click to expand...

Yeah they are indeed, they are dirt cheap right now but I also see reports of job cuts and huge financial losses and something just makes me wary of putting money into them, I probably will regret it though after they double in value or something.
 
Eulogy said:
Yeah they are indeed, they are dirt cheap right now but I also see reports of job cuts and huge financial losses and something just makes me wary of putting money into them, I probably will regret it though after they double in value or something.
Click to expand...

Losses was last years news, the jobs cuts represent cost cutting which is why they have jumped today.
 
I'm really liking the look of Taylor Wimpy, I might stick 2k on them today, I was looking at them about a week ago and they've already gone up 30% since then but I still think they're worth a punt.
 
daz said:
I think people have decided that the sky isn't necessarily falling anymore, and that the apocalypse isn't happening, contrary to what the media were telling everyone. There is a recession, sure, but things will go back to normal in due course.
Click to expand...

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13382201

"Level 3 means there are no reliable market prices available, leaving the banks free to use models."

CFN215.gif


Doesn't inspire much confidence from me I'm afraid.

Although the economist does suggest banks are being sensible in their models.

"The assumptions in these may not be particularly pessimistic: at the end of 2008, $12 billion of Citigroup’s Level 3 structured-credit exposures were valued according to a fall in house prices of 33% from the peak—a smaller drop than the one in the government’s own “stress test”."

As for so many trying to guess the bottom of shares. We aren't even close to historic lows. Not that I'm saying that they will go any lower. Its just too difficult to tell.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13382175

However, I am surprised the G20 policy wasn't priced in better earlier. Then again maybe I was being too optimistic about anything actually getting done or to something of such a magnitude.

w
w
 
Last edited:
There's some extremely poor risk management in this thread. When someone makes SR gains, they get happy. When they make SR losses, they say they're "in it for the LR". Doesn't seem that many have take profit levels or stop losses in place either. Nor is buying shares to trade (not to invest) a good idea just for the reason you think the market has "bottomed out". This equity rally of the last week or so is false - it's just a bounce. Once people start covering their longs, we're going to see a correction. Given that share prices reflect all public information and more, trading on such indicators is incorrect, and one must consider technicals, liquidity conditions and positioning to be successful.
 
chipperhead said:
And I'm glad I did, up 22% today so far :)
Click to expand...

Well you're lucky the restructuring of their debt went well. The probabilities of it succeeding and failing had already been priced in when the stock rose 30%. Unless you had some insider information, you basically tossed a coin and won.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...pey-jumps-on-bank-debt-agreement-1661125.html

Its so annoying when people do this kind of thing. "Oh look the stock went up 30%, must keep increasing then". If the restructuring collapsed then you'd be looking at some hefty losses.

edit:

In fact the restructuring isnt actually complete.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2009/apr/06/2

Would be funny if the deal collapses (well for your sake better hope not). But the fact the stock rose today means the probability of the deal is more and more likely. I wonder if you're keeping tabs on the talks and whether you should jump or believe that the probablility being priced in is too low?
 
Last edited:
N9ne said:
There's some extremely poor risk management in this thread. When someone makes SR gains, they get happy. When they make SR losses, they say they're "in it for the LR". Doesn't seem that many have take profit levels or stop losses in place either. Nor is buying shares to trade (not to invest) a good idea just for the reason you think the market has "bottomed out". This equity rally of the last week or so is false - it's just a bounce. Once people start covering their longs, we're going to see a correction. Given that share prices reflect all public information and more, trading on such indicators is incorrect, and one must consider technicals, liquidity conditions and positioning to be successful.
Click to expand...

You contradict yourself. Who says people haven't been covering their longs already? They're pretty poor traders if they haven't. They might adjust the exact hedge, but again how can you guess what traders will do? You are assuming some kind of inherent flaw in the movement of shares.
 
ghost101 said:
Well you're lucky the restructuring of their debt went well. The probabilities of it succeeding and failing had already been priced in when the stock rose 30%. Unless you had some insider information, you basically tossed a coin and won.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...pey-jumps-on-bank-debt-agreement-1661125.html

Its so annoying when people do this kind of thing. "Oh look the stock went up 30%, must keep increasing then". If the restructuring collapsed then you'd be looking at some hefty losses.

edit:

In fact the restructuring isnt actually complete.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2009/apr/06/2

Would be funny if the deal collapses (well for your sake better hope not). But the fact the stock rose today means the probability of the deal is more and more likely. I wonder if you're keeping tabs on the talks and whether you should jump or believe that the probablility being priced in is too low?
Click to expand...

Yes it would be really funny if you're the type of person who gets their kicks out of other peoples misfortune :(

I haven't got any insider information, I was sick of getting jack on my savings so decided to try a few grand mid to long term in the stock market. I believe that banking and housing will eventually recover and seen as they've ridden the storm this far, I'm hoping they'll do fine in the end.

Like I said earlier I'd be more annoyed if I didn't invest and the shares rose considerably, than if I do invest and loose a fair chunk of cash. At least I've given it a go.

So thanks for your sentiments, you never know in a years time if it all goes wrong you can resurrect this thread and have a good old chuckle on me.

For your information I've got LLoyds, Taylor Wimpey, RBS and Elementis.
 
chipperhead said:
Yes it would be really funny if you're the type of person who gets their kicks out of other peoples misfortune :(
Click to expand...


I don't find other people's misfortunes funny. What would be funny is what would happen to the share price i.e. the large swing it would happen.

Maybe you are wealthy and can afford to do this, but putting 2k on TW simply because it went up 30% in the past week is a recipe for disaster.
 
ghost101 said:
I don't find other people's misfortunes funny. What would be funny is what would happen to the share price i.e. the large swing it would happen.

Maybe you are wealthy and can afford to do this, but putting 2k on TW simply because it went up 30% in the past week is a recipe for disaster.
Click to expand...

Possibly, but the same argument holds for not investing in Barclays when it was 100% up and now 200% up...
 
NeilFawcett said:
Possibly, but the same argument holds for not investing in Barclays when it was 100% up and now 200% up...
Click to expand...

Theres a problem though. You start entering bubble dynamics if you begin to ignore fundumentals.

A nice example would be to look at the tulip bubble. Specifically the economic explanation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_bubble

edit: Note that I am not saying the rise in the value of Barclays is a bubble.
 
ghost101 said:
I don't find other people's misfortunes funny. What would be funny is what would happen to the share price i.e. the large swing it would happen.

Maybe you are wealthy and can afford to do this, but putting 2k on TW simply because it went up 30% in the past week is a recipe for disaster.
Click to expand...

No you've read what I posted wrong, I didn't buy TW because it had gone up 30%.
I was looking at TW as a good mid to long term buy purely because I was looking to invest in the construction sector, did some research and really fancied them. While I was fannying about for a few days considering whether I should buy or not they rose 30%. I was then concerned that since they'd gone up so much they may stick for a while or come down and that's why I said

"I was looking at them about a week ago and they've already gone up 30% since then but I still think they're worth a punt."

and not "They've just gone up 30%, I'll stick some money on them as they have just gone up loads".

But I'm still struggling to see how a large swing will be funny to you when you're not laughing at peoples misfortunes.
I'm not even that worried if it does go back down, hopefully by Christmas 2010 it'll be just over a quid a share and I'll have quadrupled my money.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom