Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

silversurfer said:
That is it, they cant pay the interest on those rates. Recognise this and there is only one direction then. This shouldnt be on a trading thread but its relevant to DXY and every price. USA financed themselves short term where as UK having in effect gone broke in the 1970's has a long term average to our debt near 13 years if Im remembering right. I dont know the exact facts & now my reference data is outdated but these things cant be changed easily, USA doesnt even want to be sensible in any way.
Volcker was the peak of that kind of thinking, was it over 15% he set rates to. I've saved cash savings at 10% and they offered 5 year fixes too so this is very recent historically and it can happen I wont disagree with you. Maybe it must happen, but higher rates means default because the interest will become 100% of government fiscal budget, no military nothing else can be paid. Thats not feasible, very likely is increasingly easy money look at Japan for the longest QE history.

The sum total is this downturn is turbulence, its volatility, scary but it shakes us down and it rises back up. Nasty because some are going to sell at the bottom.
I shouldnt compare it to crypto with zero physical product but anyone who traded that, lost or sold only for it to rise or was surprised at the volatility and impossible moves, thats relevant experience to main markets imo.
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Yea, there is a couple of factors at play here that make it a different situation i think. First is the long term debt cycle, that's clearly near the top and become untenable, repo markets are going insane due to lack of liquidity, its also the end of a business cycle, that convergence does sort of give off the impression that America will have to perform a "beautiful deleveraging"

Second, there is the invention of these cryptocurrencies, CB's are talking very seriously about creating CBDC's.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/coin...resigns-to-oversee-us-national-banking-system

And Mark Carney at Jackson Hole last year said that the US dollar will have to make way as the worlds reserve currency, the US dollar drags too much on the wider world, if we want true level playing field economics, where emerging markets are not controlled by US policy, then a neutral digital world reserve currency could take up that role. This process could serve as a perfect platform for America to repatriate US dollars from the wider system, whilst increasing interest rates.
https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/mark-carney--is-usd-dominance-drawing-to-a-close--190826

I'm not completely sure of it all obviously, i'm still reading and trying to figure out the angle, but i certainly believe there is a monumental shift coming in the next few years.
 
Nothing to do with how the index looks. Infections are still on a rapidly accelerating curve, lockdowns are becoming ever more stringent. Financial measures look more desperate than reassuring.

Plenty more falls to come until we're out of the woods, and it's got naff all to do with studying charts and tea leaves.

We'll see a turnaround in the markets as soon as infection rates start to flatten, but as the UK and US have so utterly ballsed up their response, that won't be for a couple of weeks.
 
grumpybeard said:
Apologies if this been asked recently, it’s a large thread!

Looking for recommendations on reputable online sites to buy shares for newbie, with low commission/fees. Possibly with API, as developer and interested in messing about with own software to monitor.

would also appreciate if those sites have alerting features on stock price, or software that does.

thanks very much, most appreciate any guidance here.
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Any recommendations on online platform for first timer wanting to purchase few k of stocks highly appreciated, thanks
 
mid_gen said:
Nothing to do with how the index looks. Infections are still on a rapidly accelerating curve, lockdowns are becoming ever more stringent. Financial measures look more desperate than reassuring.

Plenty more falls to come until we're out of the woods, and it's got naff all to do with studying charts and tea leaves.

We'll see a turnaround in the markets as soon as infection rates start to flatten, but as the UK and US have so utterly ballsed up their response, that won't be for a couple of weeks.
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Agreed. Until there is some positive news eg. Italy improving, falling mortality rates, reduction in new cases or a vaccine announced things will continue to be volatile. This isn't going to bottom out for a while yet.
 
xaldub said:
Agreed. Until there is some positive news eg. Italy improving, falling mortality rates, reduction in new cases or a vaccine announced things will continue to be volatile. This isn't going to bottom out for a while yet.
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Yeah. I am considering selling my NVDA stocks for they cost and then waiting and rebuying other stocks. Tesla is now sub-400 and is looking like a win as I think it will be back up at 1000+ after this is all over and normal life resumes.
 
mid_gen said:
Nothing to do with how the index looks. Infections are still on a rapidly accelerating curve, lockdowns are becoming ever more stringent. Financial measures look more desperate than reassuring.

Plenty more falls to come until we're out of the woods, and it's got naff all to do with studying charts and tea leaves.

We'll see a turnaround in the markets as soon as infection rates start to flatten, but as the UK and US have so utterly ballsed up their response, that won't be for a couple of weeks.
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TA
FA

theres a diiference
 
Skeptic said:
Beginning to feel a little bullish. Remember the markets are forward looking...
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Same. I'm waiting for the right entry point.

Even as all of this financial easing they still went down. As more countries close, as more people are isolated and as earnings are seen to plummet I think there will be more
 
Richdog said:
Yeah. I am considering selling my NVDA stocks for they cost and then waiting and rebuying other stocks. Tesla is now sub-400 and is looking like a win as I think it will be back up at 1000+ after this is all over and normal life resumes.
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I bought at 300 ish sold at 850 ish and said I wouldn't touch it again but if it does get back down to 300 ish again I probably will.

Interesting read

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/..._too/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
 
Tesla looks like a share with good upside but anything that swings that much is a bit hot. Also cars are another thing that may have a bit of a slump coming out of this virus.

Saying that if you hold for a very long time it could be a good move
 
Perro said:
I wonder if we are even near the bottom of the market drop yet; I've been looking to open a S&S ISA and invest in something that's taken a bit of a tumble but likely to recover such as Ryanair/EasyJet, what do the experts in here say?
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Not an expert, or a professional. Population of the planet 7.7 billion, 200,000 infected only so far... do the maths :)
 
Perro said:
I wonder if we are even near the bottom of the market drop yet
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The lock downs haven't even begun for US & UK so I think we still have a ways to go, also we have no idea how long this is all going to last and if we will have to do recurring lock downs because we didn't get enough infected in the first round
 
Perro said:
I wonder if we are even near the bottom of the market drop yet; I've been looking to open a S&S ISA and invest in something that's taken a bit of a tumble but likely to recover such as Ryanair/EasyJet, what do the experts in here say?
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Other people may have a better view but i'd avoid those two. Go for something safer. My opinion:

Low risk, lower reward

Unilever
Vodafone
MSFT/AAPL/AMZN

Medium Risk, medium reward

BARC
Royal Dutch Shell (linked to oil)
BP (linked to oil)
PFC (linked to oil)

Higher risk - take your pick of annihilated stocks!
 
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