Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

In 2003 and 2009 the FTSE100 fell to as low as ~3,800.

It took five years after 2003 to hit a peak before the fall of 2007 and nine years after 2009 to hit the recent peak we saw in Feb 2018.

Assuming it does continue to drop, there's another 1,100 points before we test the floor of 2003/2009 and then potentially a five–10 year window before we get back to a peak.

In terms of my investment horizons, that's absolutely fine. I will continue to add to my pension (not like I have much of a choice) and I'll continue the regular saving into my S&S ISA.
 
Minusorange said:
Unlimited QE from the Federal reserve announced, surely last gasp attempt ?
Click to expand...
Rolex would be a bad analogy as it is excess value over utility, the 2 quid casio watch does 95% of the job. Any asset that has utility will hold value better, the higher priced stuff will tend to lose some.

0erbDF0.jpg

I'll post this up but theres a long story behind this I wont attempt, I first read this in the Economist March 2008 and they described the rest of the year and deleveraging. Sadly I read and forgot it mostly.
Its relevant to pricing expansion and contraction I think
Click to expand...
 
Fusion said:
Generally people seem better at pointing out negative actions rather than positive actions. I.e- they'll say to sell when things start dropping, but not to sell when things are at a peak and we're in still waters.

Likewise, very few people seem to advise buying when things are at historic lows, yet positive sentiment is all over when prices are high and rising fast. It's as though they're following herd mentality and siding with whatever is the prevailing sentiment at that time. It wasn't that long ago that "analysts" were tipping the FTSE to break 8,000.
Click to expand...

There are plenty of people pointing out negatives when the markets are on a bull run, it's just that no-one wants to hear about it :P
 
FTSE looks like it wants to break higher at the moment. Plenty of short term support right now.

I thought about buying Shell yesterday at £10 but didn't move quick enough...now it's just over £12...bummer! Oil has had a nice recovery...haven't read the news to see why though.
 
If you look at the five-day overview and average out the big swings, the FTSE100 has been pretty flat really.

I wouldn't like to bet that this is the bottom but it is mildly reassuring — at least until the next drop happens…
 
Unlimited money seems to be working, it's all just a facade though isn't it if we all know it's only rising because the fed are throwing everything at it ? Surely it just makes a fragile market more fragile if the foundations it is built on are fake ?
 
Day trader's wet dream. But it all looks a bit Chinese lantern to me... looks pretty when it does up, less pretty when it comes down and sets fire to your neighbours.

Disclaimer: like most DIY investors, I lost a lot more than I gained after I misjudged what would happen after the last crash. Some people should not be trusted with their own money. This is why tracker funds exist... boring, but sensible in the long term. I only have a cash ISA, which has been tracking the toilet index for a decade. I am, however, considering turning it into a share ISA... in about another decade, probably. I just need time to think, ok? :-)
 
I see some ranging going on so just closed off my S&P ETF shares for a small profit and look to re-enter when we fade back to recent lows. I'm meant to be investing long-term but watching graphs (now that I have more time) has pulled the day trader out of me a tiny bit.

It looks like most indices are net short at the moment which will put pressure on rises.....it likely means that there is a swell of cash around so any meaningful news will spike the prices.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom