Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Joe Jones · 24 Mar 2020 at 15:49

I see some ranging going on so just closed off my S&P ETF shares for a small profit and look to re-enter when we fade back to recent lows. I'm meant to be investing long-term but watching graphs (now that I have more time) has pulled the day trader out of me a tiny bit.

It looks like most indices are net short at the moment which will put pressure on rises.....it likely means that there is a swell of cash around so any meaningful news will spike the prices.

Jono8 · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:09

Lol at the markets today. As if everything is suddenly better.

Minusorange · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:12

Jono8 said:
Lol at the markets today. As if everything is suddenly better.

No matter how fancy it looks, it's still a house of cards

xaldub · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:40

Jono8 said:
Lol at the markets today. As if everything is suddenly better.

I know ... it's crazy. It's almost like "Yay ... lockdown!" Then tomorrow everyone will be thinking "what the heck ... quick sell it ALL !" I'm still expecting a downward trend for a few weeks despite what's happened today.

Jono8 · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:47

xaldub said:
I know ... it's crazy. It's almost like "Yay ... lockdown!" Then tomorrow everyone will be thinking "what the heck ... quick sell it ALL !" I'm still expecting a downward trend for a few weeks despite what's happened today.

Its ridiculous.

Skeptic · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:50

Biggest gain days happen in a bear market. Hope nobody was sitting on the sidelines today - could have had +10% today and sold after that rise...

Maybe the bottom is in? Maybe it isn't? Pretty hefty amount of money made today!

Skillmister · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:51

Skeptic said:
Biggest gain days happen in a bear market. Hope nobody was sitting on the sidelines today - could have had +10% today and sold after that rise...

Maybe the bottom is in? Maybe it isn't? Pretty hefty amount of money made today!

If @Psycho Sonny didn't make at least 10% today then he needs to get a new crystal ball

Skeptic · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:52

xaldub said:
I know ... it's crazy. It's almost like "Yay ... lockdown!" Then tomorrow everyone will be thinking "what the heck ... quick sell it ALL !" I'm still expecting a downward trend for a few weeks despite what's happened today.

Or...might it be that the lockdown signifies that more certainty about our prognosis is now known? I.e. an unknown has been removed from the market and the move reflects that?

Of course, I know nothing - neither does anybody else. Tread carefully.

silversurfer · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:53

Ironic Namesake said:
Bought some puts on SPY on this unusually green day.

See how 2500 goes as a line in the sand. I presume this is in reaction to trillions in bailout, they'll be waves back and forth if its anything like 2008. I thought the bill didnt pass though.

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-dis...rock-consensus-85-class-i-accumulation/charts

Not especially worse then other funds. They seem to be trying to be middle of the road and distributed. Still not sure exactly what it holds as its a fund of funds, all the big stuff apparently.

One of the worlds largest firms moves 20% in one day. Volatility is a bull market so IG might be cheap.

Minusorange · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:55

Skeptic said:
Of course, I know nothing - neither does anybody else. Tread carefully.

The market is up because the Fed is pumping billions into it at the moment with their unlimited QE and on the basis that the US government with be offering up a $2TRILLION stimulus package providing it gets passed (all news seems positive to it getting passed)

Joe Jones · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:57

I'm confused as well. We have Spain reporting that infection rates are now higher than Italy.

Whilst the lock downs may provide certainty of a situation and perhaps some are seeing Trump not locking down as good for the US (on their assumption that locking down will be worse for the economy) I can't help but see that when the US is rampant with COVID and no one is fit to work then the US will drop like a stone and take the markets with it.

The US pumping in money is good for business support, but will massively devalue the currency which has it's own implications throughout the world.

Psycho Sonny · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:59

Skillmister said:
If @Psycho Sonny didn't make at least 10% today then he needs to get a new crystal ball

All my cash is in gold

Quantitive ease incoming.

Also got some bitcoin but had that for years not a new buy unlike gold

Skeptic · 24 Mar 2020 at 16:59

Minusorange said:
The market is up because the Fed is pumping billions into it at the moment with their unlimited QE and on the basis that the US government with be offering up a $2TRILLION stimulus package providing it gets passed (all news seems positive to it getting passed)

Yeah maybe! Tides go in, tides go out - you can't explain that!

Minusorange · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:06

Skeptic said:
Yeah maybe! Tides go in, tides go out - you can't explain that!

There is no maybe, that is literally what is happening

https://www.ft.com/content/2472172a-6d74-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

Skeptic · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:08

Minusorange said:
There is no maybe, that is literally what is happening

https://www.ft.com/content/2472172a-6d74-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

I mean, maybe it describes the move, maybe it doesn't.

wesimmo · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:13

The scary thing is that the US economy is so huge and influential.

Given Trump's unpredictability it's a nightmare trying to guess what might happen.

How will the market price it if he relaxes isolation rules in 2 weeks? For me that would mean record lows at some point because coronavirus will tear through the country like wildfire.

Efour · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:16

I'm too scared to play right now.
But damn what a day

Vanilla · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:45

I've sat on the sidelines with cash waiting for that moment. I look at today and think 'daaaaamn'.

However, like others have said there will be much trouble ahead.

Ironic Namesake · 24 Mar 2020 at 17:48

silversurfer said:
See how 2500 goes as a line in the sand. I presume this is in reaction to trillions in bailout, they'll be waves back and forth if its anything like 2008. I thought the bill didnt pass though.

Not yet ... let's see. May 15 expiry, so have some time. VIX is pushing the price up at the moment - I expect the coming weeks to be very rocky still, until this is resolved.

Also bought some MGM leaps

Fusion · 24 Mar 2020 at 18:37

Didn't expect those rises today. Trying to explain it away using any number of relatively recent announcement doesn't really wash. We're in highly unpredictable times, end of.