Soldato
Sorry for the long post, but I just HAD to look up my dissertation that I wrote in 2007. Fortunately the submission receipt copies the plain text into an email so I've got the final copy. Some bits make for funny/obvious reading lol. Netflix (as we know it) wasn't even a glimmer in our eyes. Neither was 4K evidently.
The production companies buying a cinema bit hasn't happened though, that I know of (yet).
In this subchapter I will explore how I believe the film industry will have to change once again in order to stay ahead and offer a difference to the material produced by television.
Change in the home and in television
I believe this change, over the next 20 years, will be great. Thanks to the success of networks big-budget series such as 24, Lost and Heroes, the near future will see the continued production of series that match the budgets of that of a Hollywood blockbuster.
Households driven by the advancement in technology and the reducing price of this will also increasingly have the capabilities to watch media in high-definition quality with surround sound. I predict this will be in at least a quarter of households by 2010 - another double in the figure since 2006.
This will be realised to a greater extent than it is now by the television networks, and on-demand services will become commonplace whereby an extensive library of films are accessible instantly at a price cheaper than a single cinema ticket. I can also see films being released simultaneously or within a much smaller time frame to that of their worldwide cinema releases. Where now a film will premier on on-demand television after at least a month, I believe this gap will narrow to within a week in order to encourage their viewing by an audience who are happy with and even prefer staying within the comfort of their own home cinema. The increased content and reduced price of this on-demand service will also see a drop in DVD rentals which will become needless in comparison.
And it's not just on television but also through the internet that will have a huge impact on the way we view media. Networks such as the BBC and their iPlayer will increasingly allow their content to be viewed online, either free, by subscription or pay per view. This will allow content to be streamed directly to a home PC (and of an increased quality with the advancement in ISP cabling and speeds), and with the aid of media centres and home networking this will then also be able to be displayed directly to the living room television.
This impact on film and high-concept
The changes afore mentioned will have a roll on effect onto the film industry. People will be less inclined to go to the cinema for something that they can get at near the same quality and experience as the cinema and at a cheaper cost from their own living room sofa.
The current drive in having to go to the cinema to see a film on its release date will also decline. Television networks will grow larger and will have a greater force in determining how fast new releases reach the home. This will also be used as a strategy by the film distributors and production companies to counteract the loss in profits associated with internet piracy and the downloading of films before they reach television or DVD. This will give the person who downloads the odd film here and there more of a choice, and instead of having to wait weeks to get hold of an official copy, will much sooner have the chance to obtain a higher quality version than that which the pirate copies can offer and at a more reasonable price.
This though will drive down cinema admissions, and although this only acts today as 20% of a films total profit (Sedgwick 2005, p. 9), it is still a huge stake in this, especially when you consider how little of the remaining 80% would be made had the buyers not seen the film at the cinema originally. For example, a cinema ticket may cost just L5 - the consumer of this may then purchase the DVD at L10 and the video game at L30. While the cinema ticket only equates to just 9% of this total revenue, it was this that caused the consumer to buy the remaining 91%.
And it is here that film will see its biggest change - at the cinema. Film and its production methods will have to change in order to give cinema something new to offer over television. This has already begun with the limited introduction of IMAX cinemas and 3D screenings in standard cinemas, but these are nowhere near where they will be in 20 years in terms of widespread accessibility and admissions.
This change also has the ability to see a shift in the balance of power. Where now a cinema is provided numerous films by a distributor, through the importance of in-cinema technology, the power will sway to the cinema companies. It will be up to the cinemas themselves, rather than the film makers, how best to offer a visual and physical experience, and to what extent and quality this is offered. Because of this, I foresee the big production houses either buying out already established cinema chains or founding their own. This will allow them to make films specifically designed for the new cinema, and visa versa, with more power and more control over what kind and quality of experience the audience receives. This style of entertainment could be likened to the way in which theme park rides and experiences operate today.
Summary
The next 20 years will see a huge change in what cinema is and means compared to today. It will become much more of a pure entertainment industry rather than with a portion of classic-cinema.
The shift to home cinema dominance will give more power to the television networks and will see a shorten in the delay between a films cinema and home release, as well as a lapse in DVD sales.
The way in which film and high-concept can counteract this is to push forward technology and offer a simultaneous visual and physical experience from the cinema. This push though will sway the power of the film and its experience to the cinema chains, and this will see the production companies themselves having a large stake and control in this business though buyouts and newly founded chains.
Overall, what we think of as cinema today will very much be an experience that can be obtained at the home, and it's up the cinema to offer something that the home can't yet catch up with because of the power the audience has over the industry.
The production companies buying a cinema bit hasn't happened though, that I know of (yet).