Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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This is given that both USA and Russia have substantially more time to react for an incoming attack than UK. Since we can actually have TU-160 flying 50 miles off London right now loaded with a nuke therefore dooming all those Vanguards that are in docks and throwing communications and whole command and control into havoc since the whole island will be obliterated within seconds.

Well not really, it's been demonstrated many times that RAF typoons end up alongside them before they enter UK airspace, also - UK trident subs are in Faslane in Scotland - not anywhere near London

I dont know about you, but without USA I dont think EU has reasonable MAD principle against Russia...

Nato is a bit of a problem for Russia...

One sub, 16 missiles, 1 crew, 1 captain... You do realize how high the chance of everything going to poo there is? They can simply lose communications, captain could`ve lost the nuke key while taking a dump in the toilet, maybe the ICBM will get stuck in launch pad... possibilities are endless, you are putting all your faith of MAD into 1 vessel and into an idea that its somehow has a god mode on it.

Faith in MAD isn't necessarily in the form of having an equal force pointed back the other way, it's in the knowledge that the aggressor knows the costs - as I've already said, if Russia were to perform a pre-emptive strike against the EU and UK - it would kill itself in the after-effects.

Not to mention that an attack on the NATO member states would bring America in (NATO guarantee), but it wouldn't make any difference - at this point pretty much the whole world would be finished.
 
Well not really, it's been demonstrated many times that RAF typoons end up alongside them before they enter UK airspace, also - UK trident subs are in Faslane in Scotland - not anywhere near London

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ar-bomber-flies-undetected-20-miles-Hull.html




Not to mention that an attack on the NATO member states would bring America in (NATO guarantee)

As I mentioned above, if Russians succeed pre-emptive strike on EU... Do you think Americans will pull the trigger and sign complete death warrant to the world just to prove the point of their "Nato gurantee" or let it slide which would leave USA relatively un-harmed.

Having lived here for some time... I am rather certain on the answer.

I personally would rather prefer to live rather than prove "Nato Gurantee" to already non existant EU.

Just imagine yourself in White House, being told that EU is no more and a red phone from Moscow ringing. With Vlad on other end, telling you either to suck it up or exchange few thousands warheads. What are you going to do?
 
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Not worth it, unless your ready to be utterly utterly brutal to the national populace there will always be a pocket of resistance being a right royal pain in the arse.
 
If 2 nuclear subs at sea is fool-proof method of assuring MAD with Russia, then why do Americans and Russians have so many ICBMS split across silos/subs/bombers.
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In part it's because Russia and the U.S. are much bigger targets for each other and they sort of got into a silly competition over who could have the most missiles, back when they were one missile, one warhead.
They've massively reduced their nuclear missile numbers since the end of the cold war, but if they try to reduce them too much they get into problems with their more nutso types who see any unilateral reduction in numbers as being "weak".

IIRC both Russia and the U.S. had enough nukes at one point to pretty much wipe out all civilisation across the world several time over, and that was with single warhead types (modern nuclear missiles tend to carry anything up to a dozen + warheads that can be independently targeted).

One of the reasons they still maintain a lot of "nuclear capable" subs and aircraft is that the same platforms can also be used for conventional weapons, and it reduces the number of populated land based targets that are likely to be targeted in a first strike (by moving the launch platforms to sea you reduce the number of such targets on land).

From memory for example some of the Ohio class subs* were converted from carrying 24 Trident missiles to carry 100+ cruise missiles (with conventional warheads, but iirc the warheads can be swapped out for nukes which are normally kept in storage).
So they swapped the ability to carry up to 240 nuclear warheads in a low number of long range missiles for 100+ nuclear or conventional warheads in shorter ranged missiles.

So yes one or two active missile subs won't do the same damage as a dozen and an entire fleet of of bombers armed with nukes, but they'll still pretty much lay waste to a large part of even a country like Russia's military/political system, and as both France and the UK are also part of NATO we also get a good deal of protection in theory from the American missiles.


*Our Vanguard carry 16 missiles with I think 3 out of a possible 12 of the warheads on each carrying a missile, that is still potentially 48 cities or military installations they can hit on their own with the warheads from one sub (and that goes up to over 100+ targets if the MIRV's were fitted with their full load out of nuclear warheads).
 
All I am saying is that EU has to get their poo together and build a modern military with Nuclear capabilities on par of that of Russia and USA.

We should not rely on NATO (USA) for protection, Americans will NOT risk or give up their well-being in order to honor their promises. There is no way USA will stick up for Europe if it will result in their mainland being hit, if there will be a choice between ditching EU and being safe, or sticking up for EU and having nukes thrown at them. I am sure you`d guess which one they`d pick.

EU economy is larger than of US and a lot larger than of Russia. We need to arm up to preserve peace in the world, otherwise, we are leaving an opening for some nut-job to exploit.
 
Sorry I am still struggling to understand that concept... Especially even if no one retaliates?

yeah, you ain't alone there, what a crazy sentence! Lol

A pre-emptive nuclear strike on the EU and UK, in order to be successful would need to destroy all enemy military targets, including nuclear capability, communications, airfields, bases - everything.

Many of these things are in cities, or nearby cities - which means that in the exchange these cities would be targeted and destroyed.

In a nuclear explosion, most of the energy of the bomb is released as pure heat, the nuclear tests of the 1950s and beyond were all carried out in deserts and in the atmosphere where nothing flammable really exists. If you "nuke" a large city with a modern nuclear weapon, a city full of materials, chemicals, plastics, woods, factories, etc - it releases so much debris into the atmosphere. If you do this to many cities at once (for example all the EU and the UK, a lot of cities) the result is that so much stuff ends up in the atmosphere, the temperature of the planet - the whole northern hemisphere drops so much, that;

The temperature in the northern hemisphere drops 10-20 degrees in the first 6-12 months, due to the smoke in the atmosphere.
All crops fail and can't be re-grown, no food. (this is happening to most of the planet)
The atmosphere is full of radioactive dust, water is poisoned and remains poisoned for a long time.
Due to reliance on food-aid, nearly all 3rd world countries perish, due to America having no crops to provide aid.

Basically the effect on the climate, of unleashing that many nuclear weapons upon that many cities in one go - wouldn't be that far off an extinction level event, nobody needs to retaliate - and this is why in the 1980s, the scientific community including Russian and American scientists all agreed, that a pre-emptive strike is suicide, even if the other side doesn't get a single warhead away.
 
*Our Vanguard carry 16 missiles with I think 3 out of a possible 12 of the warheads on each carrying a missile, that is still potentially 48 cities or military installations they can hit on their own with the warheads from one sub (and that goes up to over 100+ targets if the MIRV's were fitted with their full load out of nuclear warheads).

I just spent good half hour trying to explain that there is no way in hell we will be able to launch 16 missiles in event of Russian pre emptive strike.

3 minutes between launches approx... thats 48 minutes... by that time in full blown nuclear war the world would cease exist....

Thats minus the fact that if I remember correctly, never has western country managed to launch full armament of nukes from their subs.

As I keep pointing and pointing, there is a reason Russians and Americans keep their arsenal diversified. People fail, Technology fails, everything fails. You can not simply put all faith into 1 submarine, it is idiotic beyond belief.

I also explained that in the event Russians succeed in wiping out EU, Americans WILL NOT stick their neck in order to prove their NATO point to Europe that does not exist.
 
I understand what you mean, yeah, but you said no retaliatory attacks would come so you don't need to destroy all targets. Basically it was just badly written!
 
And people are questioning our need for a replacement for Trident! How the world can change in 6 months.

We need to have at least 10 subs in the water, submerged, all over the world at one given time, constantly, 24/7 not in damn Scotland...

Moreover, we need to either have our nuclear capable bombers (which we dont have) flying along baltics (near St.Petersburg) or stick nukes in the Baltics or Poland, so Moscow would get hit pretty fast if its needed.

Russians can fly their TU-95 nuke tipped along the channel, its a proportional response.

I dont want a WW3 so we need to get serious, otherwise maybe Vlad or other nut-job might see an opening and go for it.
 
We need to have at least 10 subs in the water, submerged, all over the world at one given time, constantly, 24/7 not in damn Scotland...

Moreover, we need to either have our nuclear capable bombers (which we dont have) flying along baltics (near St.Petersburg) or stick nukes in the Baltics or Poland, so Moscow would get hit pretty fast if its needed.

Russians can fly their TU-95 nuke tipped along the channel, its a proportional response.

I dont want a WW3 so we need to get serious, otherwise maybe Vlad or other nut-job might see an opening and go for it.
No we don't, the whole point of MAD is you don't use it. But you need to have the nukes in the first place...
 
We need to have at least 10 subs in the water, submerged, all over the world at one given time, constantly, 24/7 not in damn Scotland...

Moreover, we need to either have our nuclear capable bombers (which we dont have) flying along baltics (near St.Petersburg) or stick nukes in the Baltics or Poland, so Moscow would get hit pretty fast if its needed.

Russians can fly their TU-95 nuke tipped along the channel, its a proportional response.

I dont want a WW3 so we need to get serious, otherwise maybe Vlad or other nut-job might see an opening and go for it.

You understand where this leads?

It goes back to the 60s and 70s, where you had so much weaponry piled up on either side, that the risk wasn't in the fact that somebody may actually start a war - but that a malfunction in the technology, or chain of command somewhere, behind this enormous pile of weaponry, could look like an attempt to start a war, and do just that.
 
A pre-emptive nuclear strike on the EU and UK, in order to be successful would need to destroy all enemy military targets, including nuclear capability, communications, airfields, bases - everything.

Many of these things are in cities, or nearby cities - which means that in the exchange these cities would be targeted and destroyed.

In a nuclear explosion, most of the energy of the bomb is released as pure heat, the nuclear tests of the 1950s and beyond were all carried out in deserts and in the atmosphere where nothing flammable really exists. If you "nuke" a large city with a modern nuclear weapon, a city full of materials, chemicals, plastics, woods, factories, etc - it releases so much debris into the atmosphere. If you do this to many cities at once (for example all the EU and the UK, a lot of cities) the result is that so much stuff ends up in the atmosphere, the temperature of the planet - the whole northern hemisphere drops so much, that;

The temperature in the northern hemisphere drops 10-20 degrees in the first 6-12 months, due to the smoke in the atmosphere.
All crops fail and can't be re-grown, no food. (this is happening to most of the planet)
The atmosphere is full of radioactive dust, water is poisoned and remains poisoned for a long time.
Due to reliance on food-aid, nearly all 3rd world countries perish, due to America having no crops to provide aid.

Basically the effect on the climate, of unleashing that many nuclear weapons upon that many cities in one go - wouldn't be that far off an extinction level event, nobody needs to retaliate - and this is why in the 1980s, the scientific community including Russian and American scientists all agreed, that a pre-emptive strike is suicide, even if the other side doesn't get a single warhead away.

That all seems heavily theoretical and not at all known to be true.
 
That all seems heavily theoretical and not at all known to be true.

It is theoretical, but it's the result of a lot of scientific study that was done in the 1980s between the US and Russia, mostly due to the insane amount of fire-power that had been built, but a lack of knowledge as to what the effects of using any of it might be.

It's also worth point out, that since the 1980s, a lot of the work has been re-done and many now think that the work done in the 1980s actually underestimated the effects.
 
No we don't, the whole point of MAD is you don't use it. But you need to have the nukes in the first place...

I am not saying we should use it :confused:

As I said before, in my personal humble opinion, UK and EU lacks MAD against Russia.

My main issue is that people are self-centered, if you push person enough and make it so that they have got nothing to lose, you have a massive issue.

What are we doing right now? Pushing Putin into a corner, Vlad isnt like your normal western president. This guy has been in power for 15 years and he is essentially a dictator, he has no real opposition and all of the "creme" of authority is under him.

If the guy loses it, chances are, no one will stop reaching him for the suitcase.

I personally see that EU has a massive opening for Russia to exploit military wise. I do not believe that 2 nuke subs (which are only thing that`d survive pre-emptive strike) are enough to keep Vlad cool in his head.

I already explained the USA issue and I am sure he knows full well that if he manages to pull off EU obliteration there is no way USA will stick their neck to prove a point.

Again, people are self-centered... Theres no way I`d agree to have nukes dropped on my head to prove a point that USA is truthful to its NATO ideology when there is a clear choice not to do so.

You`d have to be childishly naive to believe USA would stick its neck for EU if it all goes to hell and risk getting bombed.

Hell I am not sure if we`d go to war with Russia if they invaded Baltics and Poland.... Let alone expect Americans to take few thousands warheads for us.

NATO seems great on paper, in reality, I dont feel like getting bombed over Poland.....
 
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the nuclear chain of command has a system in place in the event of a surprise attack which destroys the UK - each sub at sea is sent a pre coded message a specific times

failure to receive that message and the `uk is destroyed system starts - the end result is launching of the weapons.
 
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