Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Colonel_Klinck]

Well ****......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521187952461762566

This is Putin's main rival, the guy who almost beat Yeltsin, the leader of the party who have been #2 in the polls since the Russian Federation was founded, Putin's main opposition, looks like he plans on going after Putin for being too soft on Ukraine

Its like the USSR never went away in Russia. The levels of self delusion, the ridiculous propaganda and clamp down on any internal criticism or dissent.

 

[Turn]

Spoiler: *Russia Reroutes Internet Traffic in Occupied Ukraine to Its Infrastructure — RTRS

Spoiler: *Britain Promises Further $375 mln in Military Aid for Ukraine — RTRS

Spoiler: *One Teenager Dead, One Wounded As Missile Hits Ukraine’s Odesa -Zelenskiy — RTRS

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

Nice new video on nuclear weapons, covers just about everything.

 

[ianh]

Its like the USSR never went away in Russia. The levels of self delusion, the ridiculous propaganda and clamp down on any internal criticism or dissent.

I watched a "Coffee or Die" podcast with some of their journalists who'd just got back from Ukraine and one was reminiscing about a trip to Russia he did in 2012 and he said that exact same thing, the Russians didn't seem to realise they'd "lost" the Cold War 20+ years ago and instead the attitude towards the break-up of the USSR/Warsaw Pact seemed to be "we decided to get rid of the leeches and streamlined ourselves for the betterment of Russia", so they'd effectively spent those 20+ years re-inventing their History into a Win and since then they've had another 10 years so you're now into at least 2-3 generations with the same mindset.

 

[Rroff]

I watched a "Coffee or Die" podcast with some of their journalists who'd just got back from Ukraine and one was reminiscing about a trip to Russia he did in 2012 and he said that exact same thing, the Russians didn't seem to realise they'd "lost" the Cold War 20+ years ago and instead the attitude towards the break-up of the USSR/Warsaw Pact seemed to be "we decided to get rid of the leeches and streamlined ourselves for the betterment of Russia", so they'd effectively spent those 20+ years re-inventing their History into a Win and since then they've had another 10 years so you're now into at least 2-3 generations with the same mindset.

I think this is part of the danger with this situation - people try to superimpose Western mindsets on how Russians will act, when as a generalisation the perception in Russia can be very different and they may go a long way down a path we don't expect them to before they might understand things the way we do, etc. (if that even stops them).

Over the years I've played games with persistent online presences (for instance Eve Online) where you tend to get groups of essentially NATO/West and Russians in opposition and the thinking can be very different and anticipating how they might act can be very counter to what people expect. (EDIT: PS if this was Eve Online the Russians would be batphoning China about now :s ).

 

[Rroff]

I'm crying after seeing the animation shown on Russian TV of the tsunami - ignoring the realities of the actual energy needed to produce something like that in effect on the whole UK - they got the first bit right in terms of how it would have to be done, but don't seem to have modelled what happens when it actually moves towards and hits the shore and land of the UK... a lot of the energy would be expended into the Atlantic while you could say goodbye to places like Murmansk....... while much of the South East of the UK, as in the bits they'd want to affect the most, would be largely untouched.

 

[Grim5]

I'm crying after seeing the animation shown on Russian TV of the tsunami - ignoring the realities of the actual energy needed to produce something like that in effect on the whole UK - they got the first bit right in terms of how it would have to be done, but don't seem to have modelled what happens when it actually moves towards and hits the shore and land of the UK... a lot of the energy would be expended into the Atlantic while you could say goodbye to places like Murmansk....... while much of the South East of the UK, as in the bits they'd want to affect the most, would be largely untouched.

the Russian animation shows them exploding a 100MT warhead, bad luck for them because that would only be enough to cause the same Tsunami as Japan https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-doomsday-weapon-submarine-nuke-2018-4?amp

 

[Rroff]

the Russian animation shows them exploding a 100MT warhead, bad luck for them because that would only be enough to cause the same Tsunami as Japan https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-doomsday-weapon-submarine-nuke-2018-4?amp

Slightly different take there by the experts compared to some of the other articles but producing something like the 2011 tsunami from a point with an explosion is very different to when a whole volume is perturbed by a vast amount of energy. You'd get something more akin to regular waves on a larger scale, potentially higher peaks than something like the 2011 tsunami but won't get the water piling up on water effect on the scale like the 2011 tsunami which drives it so far inland. In relative terms it would be closer to the 2011 tsunami than the notion of putting the whole country under the ocean though.

EDIT: Not sure what would happen though if the energy did set off landslides, etc. some of which would be in the region - it would be extremely chaotic if such did happen.

 

[Turn]

Spoiler: *Moscow Says 1,847 Children Among Thousands Transported From Ukraine to Russia — RTRS

 

[ubersonic]

Honestly the threats of Russia nuking anyone at this point as so comical part of me wants them to try just to see the potential failure xD

All they had to do to stop their $1,000,000 Pantsir trucks from losing their tyres as soon as they went offroad was just move them a few meters each week/fortnight to exercise the tyres, but they couldn't be bothered so as soon as the system deflated the tyres for mud use the sidewalls failed. And while very expensive that's still just a truck, god knows what kind of maintenance shape their intercontinental missiles are in lol.

 

[Rroff]

god knows what kind of maintenance shape their intercontinental missiles are in lol.

Though their navy generally tends to be a bit lacking for maintenance/funding the improved Kilos seem to be popping off cruise missiles, and hitting their targets when not intercepted, from the Black Sea without too much drama so their strategic submarine forces are probably at least in similar shape.

The mobile Topol based systems are relatively high profile and get a fair bit of money/maintenance chucked at them, but the static installations apparently are pretty much rusting away.

 

[Rroff]

Absolutely agree with this and the posts it is in reaction to:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521190207336468480

 

[Blackjack Davy]

I'm crying after seeing the animation shown on Russian TV of the tsunami - ignoring the realities of the actual energy needed to produce something like that in effect on the whole UK - they got the first bit right in terms of how it would have to be done, but don't seem to have modelled what happens when it actually moves towards and hits the shore and land of the UK... a lot of the energy would be expended into the Atlantic while you could say goodbye to places like Murmansk....... while much of the South East of the UK, as in the bits they'd want to affect the most, would be largely untouched.

Engulfing britain in a giant radioactive tsunami... its beyond a joke they store radioactive material from previous nuclear facilities at Sellafied under water for a reason, its a very good absorber of radiation. The russian troops who occupied Chernobyl had no idea of what the site was or its history you have to wonder exactly what they teach them over there.

The whole piece is a tsunami of impotent fury.

 

[Rroff]

Engulfing britain in a giant radioactive tsunami... its beyond a joke they store radioactive material from previous nuclear facilities at Sellafied under water for a reason, its a very good absorber of radiation. The russian troops who occupied Chernobyl had no idea of what the site was or its history you have to wonder exactly what they teach them over there.

The whole piece is a tsunami of impotent fury.

If water absorbs the radiation then is spread thinly over a larger area it is another situation though. (When they did the Umbrella test, etc. they were surprised at the findings in that respect).

 

[The Funktopus]

The russian troops who occupied Chernobyl had no idea of what the site was or its history you have to wonder exactly what they teach them over there.

Apparently when the Russians occupied the red forest around Chernobyl, they had maps dated from 1985, so would have had no idea they were digging trenches, fox holes and bunkers in perhaps the most radioactive site outside of the sarcophagus itself in the exclusion zone. Plus their vehicles were churning up soil and throwing up clouds of irradiated dust as they blundered about. I saw OSINT accounts on Twitter reporting that before Russia pulled back from their advance on Kiev, that they were evacuating bus loads of soldiers from the Chernobyl site with acute radiation poisoning to field hospitals in Belarus, and that there had been deaths.

The question really is whether they had any clue whatsoever as to where they were and what they were dealing with, or if they’re really stupid enough not to see a problem with going digging about in the fallout from the world’s worst nuclear disaster. Give the Russian army’s shambolic performance thus far, it’s a coin toss as to which one describes this situation.

 

[Grim5]

Absolutely agree with this and the posts it is in reaction to:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521190207336468480

Which is why it's important for the west to stress its longg term strategy, which is the USA has already done - Biden has made it clear he will not get bored and stop helping Ukraine, but of course Putin will know that things can change and maybe the next President has a different idea, maybe Trumpnis back and he tells Ukraine to F off

 

[Hagar]

Its like the USSR never went away in Russia. The levels of self delusion, the ridiculous propaganda and clamp down on any internal criticism or dissent.

I was posting earlier in this thread that I hoped the Russia desk at six had been restored to its preeminent position. I further hope that all the old soviet analysis has not been shredded but archived. The characters have changed but the actions and intent are still the same. I think reds under the bed is back and a few citizens will be acquiring a new or updated dossier.
As an older contributor it is all quite predictable without a deal of hindsight. The peace dividend is ended.

 

[Hook]

Apparently when the Russians occupied the red forest around Chernobyl, they had maps dated from 1985, so would have had no idea they were digging trenches, fox holes and bunkers in perhaps the most radioactive site outside of the sarcophagus itself in the exclusion zone. Plus their vehicles were churning up soil and throwing up clouds of irradiated dust as they blundered about. I saw OSINT accounts on Twitter reporting that before Russia pulled back from their advance on Kiev, that they were evacuating bus loads of soldiers from the Chernobyl site with acute radiation poisoning to field hospitals in Belarus, and that there had been deaths.

The question really is whether they had any clue whatsoever as to where they were and what they were dealing with, or if they’re really stupid enough not to see a problem with going digging about in the fallout from the world’s worst nuclear disaster. Give the Russian army’s shambolic performance thus far, it’s a coin toss as to which one describes this situation.

The troops didn't know, and Russia wants it's ethnic minorities problem killed anyway.

Spoiler: Who is fighting for Russia?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1521147862507155457

 

[Mr Jack]

Paradoxically the more Germany spends on re-armament the less it has to use for alternatives to gas. Germany has benefitted a lot since WW2 by not spending money on the latest big bang generals want.

The initial re-arming and the cost of rapidly refitting away from Russian gas is being funded from borrowing rather than taxation, and Germany could borrow the money need for this many times over, so I don't think it's a real concern. The FDP's goal for fiscal neutrality has been abandoned.

I saw OSINT accounts on Twitter reporting that before Russia pulled back from their advance on Kiev, that they were evacuating bus loads of soldiers from the Chernobyl site with acute radiation poisoning to field hospitals in Belarus, and that there had been deaths.

This isn't true. The radioactive material around Chernobyl isn't that dangerous anymore. The most radioactive (and thus most dangerous) material is also the fastest decaying and thus already gone. Long term issues may well occur but acute deaths won't.

 

[Rroff]

This isn't true. The radioactive material around Chernobyl isn't that dangerous anymore. The most radioactive (and thus most dangerous) material is also the fastest decaying and thus already gone. Long term issues may well occur but acute deaths won't.

Not something I've looked into but I remember from videos of people who've visited Chernobyl in a less than authorised manner i.e. Shiey - it is OK until you start digging and then it can still be highly radioactive enough to be acute - supposedly - but that might be a misunderstanding (and/or them being dramatic).