Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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More likely an attempt to make Putin paranoid - if a high level Russian government or military person approached the West in that manner it would be kept tightly under wraps.
 
bingham67 said:
www.dailymail.co.uk

Kremlin official 'secretly approaches West to end war in Ukraine'

The source is said to have claimed that much of Moscow's elite are highly concerned about the trajectory of Russian president Vladimir Putin's invasion into the neighbouring country
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

End of the road for Vlad?
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I don't know but while Vlad is in charge Russia and the standard of living that people have got used to living is fast coming towards the end of the road. Hopefully that will be the driver that motivates Russians to wake up and demand change but if they just sit back passively and allow Putin to appoint his own successor then in all likelihood things are not going to change for the better for Russia.
 
Rroff said:
Still in early days yet for the Kherson front. Still a lot of jostling and tactical manoeuvring.
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Interesting to see if Ukraine has a stab at taking the Kherson Oblast back this year before they receive the first bulk shipment of equipment from Lend/Lease (looks like this is due to start in October) as it would mean concentrating their existing equipment in one area and potentially weakening others.
 
Rroff said:
Appears to be comments (there is a thread of them not just the one) by someone on the front line - doesn't necessarily represent the broader picture:
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Not cheery reading. It's hard to say what is going on overall, but certainly there doesn't seem to be any real evidence of the advances they're talking about in conflict maps, the frontline seems to have been essential stalled since about June with some minor Ukrainian victories in the South the most obvious change. With the fairly crude overview these maps give though it could well be that the ground story is quite different. After all, the position of a theoretical frontline doesn't necessarily say much about what is happening in the territory coloured one colour or another, and a change imperceptible on the scale of these maps could be tactically hugely significant.

Still, I think the view that Ukraine's position gets stronger with time still holds. So long as support in the West holds, Ukraine can eventually drive Russia out of most of Ukraine.
 
Not so sure.

The west`s doesn't really do long drawn out conflicts in the back door. I expect a stalemate then everyone will sit round a table (might be long or huge diameter) and Russia will retain the crimea and gain territory. At some point the west will see the Ukraine as lost and unable to pay the debt for the (not so free) weapon systems they are currently being delivered.

The price of which is Ukraine will join NATO, the wildcard here is Belarus that country is now a melting pot ready for rebellion of bloody hard horrible crackdown.

Just the musing of a armchair general & political expert like we are all (well mostly)
 
I can't see Ukraine accepting a peace deal which gives up a chonk of land at the moment, even for agreement to NATO membership (which let's face it, Russia won't want or agree to).

Russia is bleeding troops maintaining a static front-line, without supplies/reinforcements they can't really make any progress.

Can see this going for at least the coming winter, so 6 months or or more of this to come I reckon.

If Russia annex land then the sanctions won't go away either.
 
Goksly said:
If this goes on into winter does that play into Russia or Ukraine's favour?
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I'd argue Ukraine.

Home territory, more supplies trickling in, most of the unoccupied territory is still functioning largely as normal.

Russia will have a lot of fun on the offensive in the middle of what is likely to be a cold winter in Ukraine.

It's not going to be a lot of fun for troops on either side though, fighting in the winter is going to be brutal.
 
Goksly said:
If this goes on into winter does that play into Russia or Ukraine's favour?
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Hard to say, I think. I refer you to @HungryHippos's good post on the advantages for Ukraine, but another thing to consider is that frozen ground would allow Russia to bring tracked vehicles to bare much more effectively. Going back to February, there was a lot of discussion that Russia wasn't going to attack because they'd missed that window of frozen ground, and the role that trying to attack with fields of mud blocking their way had on the early stages of the new invasion. Presumably though, the combination of dug-in defences, and extensive minefields will reduce any benefit that would bring.

A lot depends on how Russia chooses to continue the fight. This "Special Military Operation" thing is limiting their ability to deploy but Russia still has a lot of tanks in reserve it could, theoretically, throw into Ukraine. If it chose to do that while the ground is frozen then that could be a big problem for Ukraine.
 
I was wondering about the frozen ground aspect of winter too... Potential to see the full massed-armour style battles we haven't seen so far if the Russians decide that they have an advantage?... Or just a more concerted push if frozen ground helps logistics after a stagnant autumn muddy season but they're more cautious.

With the quality of tanks Russia has left and lack of air superiority they would still be very vulnerable to drones, missiles, etc...
 
I'd agree potentially, a rush of tanks with the quality they have fielded so far would likely be shredded by AT weapons.

Not sure the war will fundamentally change with frozen ground alone, hasn't it been fairly dry/stable lately?

Sure when they kicked off it was wet and boggy, but don't believe that is necessarily the case at the moment.
 
HungryHippos said:
I'd agree potentially, a rush of tanks with the quality they have fielded so far would likely be shredded by AT weapons.

Not sure the war will fundamentally change with frozen ground alone, hasn't it been fairly dry/stable lately?

Sure when they kicked off it was wet and boggy, but don't believe that is necessarily the case at the moment.
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Yeah I think the conditions have been decent recently at least from what I see casually following things....

I guess what's on mind is the potential for Russia to raise more volunteer fighters or even start drafting people, as there have been stories about adverts being put out, and also people being asked to confirm their details at the conscription office etc... If things stop moving for a muddy autumn could that be a chance for them to consolidate behind the scenes, mobilise more troops, gather more equipment out of storage etc, then when frozen ground comes into play chuck it all at the front and see if they can overwhelm the defenders if Ukraine isn't able to match them.
 
alchal said:
I see they are deepening ties with North Korea, first Iran and now this.


Shows how desperate they are becoming!
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Wouldnt really call it desperate, more like they just realise their reality now. Bridges have been burnt with the West. China are wary of getting too comfortable with Russia, and although willing to do business when it benefits them, they have their own agenda. At the moment they benefit greatly from open trade with the West, and I would think they would very much like it to carry on. Although this is very much teetering in the balance with Taiwan situation getting dicey.
So as far a Russia is concerned, it makes sense to team up with other Pariah states, enemy of my enemy is my friend. Any nation willing to support them legitimizes their current course of action in their eyes I would assume.

As much as I completely detest the thought of appeasing aggressive nations, I think the West seriously need to keep China onside, if things go the same way in Taiwan as they have done in Ukraine, things will get very very uncomfortable throughout the world. Globalisation whilst a great project in an ideal world only works when everyone is on the same page or at least willing to work together. We have left ourselves vulnerable by lulling ourselves into a false sense of security over the past 30+ years.
 
China are also reliant on global trade so it's a crap situation for all involved if that goes south.

It doesn't seem like they are prepared to fully rock the boat at the moment, though this is kind of off-topic/tangential to the war here.
 
steve45 said:
Wouldnt really call it desperate, more like they just realise their reality now. Bridges have been burnt with the West. China are wary of getting too comfortable with Russia, and although willing to do business when it benefits them, they have their own agenda. At the moment they benefit greatly from open trade with the West, and I would think they would very much like it to carry on. Although this is very much teetering in the balance with Taiwan situation getting dicey.
So as far a Russia is concerned, it makes sense to team up with other Pariah states, enemy of my enemy is my friend. Any nation willing to support them legitimizes their current course of action in their eyes I would assume.

As much as I completely detest the thought of appeasing aggressive nations, I think the West seriously need to keep China onside, if things go the same way in Taiwan as they have done in Ukraine, things will get very very uncomfortable throughout the world. Globalisation whilst a great project in an ideal world only works when everyone is on the same page or at least willing to work together. We have left ourselves vulnerable by lulling ourselves into a false sense of security over the past 30+ years.
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I'm sure this is why the US doesn't officially acknowledge the USA.
 
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