Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Goksly said:
If this goes on into winter does that play into Russia or Ukraine's favour?
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Russia's.

Once winter hits, European politicians are going to feel the pain. If we get a cold winter, we could see unrest and strong pressure on governments to reduce prices, in any way possible.

Industry (and certain manufacturing sectors) will also suffer. They will add their voice.

Holding the existing line on sanctions is likely to be put under pressure.

European countries have supplied a significant chunk of materiel from stocks, and replacing that will cost money and become difficult as it takes time to spin that up. I think weapon and supply flows to Ukraine will necessarily become increasingly dependent on the US over time.

News pages have already relegated coverage of Ukraine to a lower position in their coverage.

I'm not particularly happy to say this, but I think diplomacy will tend to accepting facts on the ground, and hoping for a miracle.

I don't see any good news from Ukraine in the near future.
 
potatolord said:
Russia's.

Once winter hits, European politicians are going to feel the pain. If we get a cold winter, we could see unrest and strong pressure on governments to reduce prices, in any way possible.

Industry (and certain manufacturing sectors) will also suffer. They will add their voice.

Holding the existing line on sanctions is likely to be put under pressure.

European countries have supplied a significant chunk of materiel from stocks, and replacing that will cost money and become difficult as it takes time to spin that up. I think weapon and supply flows to Ukraine will necessarily become increasingly dependent on the US over time.

News pages have already relegated coverage of Ukraine to a lower position in their coverage.

I'm not particularly happy to say this, but I think diplomacy will tend to accepting facts on the ground, and hoping for a miracle.

I don't see any good news from Ukraine in the near future.
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I disagree, Urkaine isn't called the bread basket of europe for no reason. Theres a lot more a stake here than gas, if russia takes Ukraine. You need to look a the bigger picture.
 
mattyfez said:
I disagree, Urkaine isn't called the bread basket of europe for no reason. Theres a lot more a stake here than gas, if russia takes Ukraine. You need to look a the bigger picture.
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It's OK to disagree.

I think I do look at the bigger picture. It's the poor buggers in Egypt, Sudan and Somalia who will starve, not comparatively rich Europeans.

I think that solidarity on oil and gas sanctions will be severely tested as we move into winter.

You only have to look at the page on price rises here to see how people are already being affected, and it isn't even cold yet. That pain is going to be very difficult for some to endure.

I don't expect my view to be popular, but that does not mean it is invalid.
 
It is a possibility. However.. A Russia with its gas and the addition of the Ukrainians agriculture industry would be a very formidable enemy indeed.

Giving into them now would just be setting ourselves up for much much worse problems with Russian expansionism in future.. That's the basis of why I don't think Europe and the US, not to mention countries like Latvia and Lithuania will allow it.. Regardless of the short term pain.
 
I don't think letting Russia win here works for anyone which is why we are where we are. The sanctions are slowly working away and Russia will start having to commit more troops to keep the war machine going.

Even if Russia does win, the gas supply from them is clearly of questionable value. We need alternatives that are more reliable, if we can cut Russia off totally then it's a huge win, but I'm not seeing how that is feasible quickly.
 
mattyfez said:
It is a possibility. However.. A Russia with its gas and the addition of the Ukrainians agriculture industry would be a very formidable enemy indeed.

Giving into them now would just be setting ourselves up for much much worse problems with Russian expansionism in future.. That's the basis of why I don't think Europe and the US, not to mention countries like Latvia and Lithuania will allow it.. Regardless of the short term pain.
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I think the Ukrainians will be suffering far worse than we will be, so maybe it's best to think about them and the lives they've already lost and those they will continue to lose, instead of ourselves this winter as, in the end, it's solely Ukraine's decision as to how far they are willing to go, how much death they're willing to have inflicted on them thats important, rather than what a bunch of countries outside of the fighting think.
 
ianh said:
I think the Ukrainians will be suffering far worse than we will be, so maybe it's best to think about them and the lives they've already lost and those they will continue to lose, instead of ourselves this winter as, in the end, it's solely Ukraine's decision as to how far they are willing to go, how much death they're willing to have inflicted on them thats important, rather than what a bunch of countries outside of the fighting think.
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You take me out of context! When I say pain mean all of us, especially Ukrainians.

Just what exactly do you think the Russians will do to remaining Ukrainian loyalists if they take Ukraine?

I'll give you a hint.. It won't be good.
 
mattyfez said:
Precisely.. Do you think they will stop with conquering Ukraine? Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia will be next on the hit list.
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I don't think Russia will attack a NATO country. The consequences of that are well understood, which is why they went into Ukraine when they did.

Further escalation would gave to come elsewhere, Azerbaijan*, for instance.


*but that's off the table as it's Turkey's best friend
 
mattyfez said:
Just what exactly do you think the Russians will do to remaining Ukrainian loyalists if they take Ukraine?

I'll give you a hint.. It won't be good.
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Not only that.

Decades after the war in Bosnia, next to nobody has ever been able to return.

Russia conquering Ukraine would probably end up the same except on a much larger scale with millions never able to return home.
 
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