Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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SkyTerran said:
They will use Kinzhals or Iskanders if they get a fix on a HIMARS launcher position and have a missile ready to go. Probably Russia's best shot to get the location are their Tu-214R signal intelligence air planes.
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I think that their kill chain is still far too long from sensor to shooter to get a Missile hit on a HIMARS, unless something mechanical happened to the HIMARS to immobilise it for a 1/2 a day.

I think that the Russians best chance to do damage to a serviceable HIMARS, if possible, would either be counter-battery artillery (very unlikely due to range), an armed drone (unlikely due to ADS/manpads) or a dedicated SF team attempting an ambush (also very unlikely) so as long as the HIMARS keep moving and keep an adequate amount of air cover (inc ADS, Manpads, SPAAG etc) around them I'd say they were pretty safe right now. The M270's are more of a risk due to its more "delicate/maintenance heavy" tracked vehicle setup, which is prone to failures far more often than the Truck based HIMARS and so that poses a bigger risk of immobilisation.
 
Devilman said:
At that point I honestly think it would be seen by the rest of the world as a nuclear attack against multiple nations considering the intentional nature of the act, due to the fallout etc.. and would probably result in a MAD retaliation. Pretty sure the Russian Leadership recognize this also.
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To be fair, given the Russians are inside the plant, control it and it has high value to them as a defensive strong point, it's not going to be them shelling it.

Ukraine are in a very delicate position there.

I'm not sure whether the plant is still supplying electricity to Ukraine, or connected to their grid. Anyone here know?
 
potatogate said:
To be fair, given the Russians are inside the plant, control it and it has high value to them as a defensive strong point, it's not going to be them shelling it.

Ukraine are in a very delicate position there.

I'm not sure whether the plant is still supplying electricity to Ukraine, or connected to their grid. Anyone here know?
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I feel you may be making two mistakes in your reasoning there.

The first is that you're expecting the Russians (especially those in command) to care about the troops on the ground and in the plant.
The second is that you're expecting the Russians to be accurate with their shelling and fire. The same Russians that have so far seemingly shot down multiple of their own aircraft and have demonstrated a complete lack of communications abilities, and major issues with targeting (well issues if you expect them to not shell things that under international law and the "laws of war" they shouldn't).

I don't think the Ukrainians will be shelling the plant, I don't think the Russians are quite stupid enough to shell it (but they did manage to hit it initially when they took it because the troops didn't understand what it was), what I do suspect is that some conscript on the ground is probably not doing well with reading his mapping and targetting information - I've heard of Russian soldiers being assigned to various specialist units (inc artillery) without any training for it either because they were "liked" by a commanding officer who was moving them away from an officer they didn't get on with, or more commonly because the unit was short on men and any one is better than no one (except when you're say aiming a howitzer), and that's before the general apparently terrible level of training even their "elite" units seem to have.

IIRC it's still connected to the grid but the Russians have been threatening to shut that off, which would be an "interesting" choice, as in "we live in interesting times" (which depending on how it's said can be a curse), given that most nuclear facilities rely on their multiple grid connections for at least some part of their own power needs (the idea being that if the reactor output drops things like cooling can pull from the grid*). It wouldn't be a meltdown or anything that bad, but it would remove a very important part of the safety system for it say the reactor had to be shut down.


*This is what caused so many of the issues at fukushima, when the reactors shut down as intended, they swapped to battery power as intended but because the grid was destroyed (and the generators flooded) they couldn't pull from that for cooling etc. If either the grid had remained working or the generators had been able to run the cooling systems would have been pretty much ok (IIRC most of the serious/leaks were due to the cooling failing when the backup power ran out).
 
bingham67 said:
Surprised there not flying in the Bayraktars if air defence is crap in Crimea.
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If I were to guess both sides are now playing cat and mouse. Ukraine may be trying to goad the Russians to turn on more air defence with probing attacks so they can target them with anti-radar missiles. Russia need to walk the line of protecting assets or seeing their defences get taken apart bit by bit.

kitch9 said:
You mean the ones that have actually witnessed how things were better and were never actually allowed to vote on how things have become?

Those ones?
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lol, if you think we had it better back then... the 70's say hi! Unless you think the current gradual erosion of things like the nhs, police numbers etc are somehow the fault of the EU and not incumbent governments?! :rolleyes:
 
potatogate said:
To be fair, given the Russians are inside the plant, control it and it has high value to them as a defensive strong point, it's not going to be them shelling it.

Ukraine are in a very delicate position there.

I'm not sure whether the plant is still supplying electricity to Ukraine, or connected to their grid. Anyone here know?
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Seeing the 'accuracy' of Russian weaponry I wouldn't be so sure. We've already had the telephone calls from soldiers home to their mother's telling them they're being shelled by their own side.

That and Russian equipment hasn't got the best reliability or safety record.
 
potatogate said:
To be fair, given the Russians are inside the plant, control it and it has high value to them as a defensive strong point, it's not going to be them shelling it.
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These are Russians you are talking about, it definitely can be them shelling it. Either part of a false flag operation (they like to do these a lot) or just simply from having terrible artillery accuracy, take your pick.

I wouldn't rule them out though, they don't think like we do at all.
 
Werewolf said:
I feel you may be making two mistakes in your reasoning there.

The first is that you're expecting the Russians (especially those in command) to care about the troops on the ground and in the plant.
The second is that you're expecting the Russians to be accurate with their shelling and fire. The same Russians that have so far seemingly shot down multiple of their own aircraft and have demonstrated a complete lack of communications abilities, and major issues with targeting (well issues if you expect them to not shell things that under international law and the "laws of war" they shouldn't).

I don't think the Ukrainians will be shelling the plant, I don't think the Russians are quite stupid enough to shell it (but they did manage to hit it initially when they took it because the troops didn't understand what it was), what I do suspect is that some conscript on the ground is probably not doing well with reading his mapping and targetting information - I've heard of Russian soldiers being assigned to various specialist units (inc artillery) without any training for it either because they were "liked" by a commanding officer who was moving them away from an officer they didn't get on with, or more commonly because the unit was short on men and any one is better than no one (except when you're say aiming a howitzer), and that's before the general apparently terrible level of training even their "elite" units seem to have.

IIRC it's still connected to the grid but the Russians have been threatening to shut that off, which would be an "interesting" choice, as in "we live in interesting times" (which depending on how it's said can be a curse), given that most nuclear facilities rely on their multiple grid connections for at least some part of their own power needs (the idea being that if the reactor output drops things like cooling can pull from the grid*). It wouldn't be a meltdown or anything that bad, but it would remove a very important part of the safety system for it say the reactor had to be shut down.


*This is what caused so many of the issues at fukushima, when the reactors shut down as intended, they swapped to battery power as intended but because the grid was destroyed (and the generators flooded) they couldn't pull from that for cooling etc. If either the grid had remained working or the generators had been able to run the cooling systems would have been pretty much ok (IIRC most of the serious/leaks were due to the cooling failing when the backup power ran out).
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My pont is that, as things stand, this a highly strategic fortress for Russia, and they will exploit that ruthlessly.

i see the Russians as treating their soldiers as expendable and that's always been the Russian way of war. I don't think I've ever said anything to the contrary.

Regardless of accuracy issues, the russians would have to literally be facing their artillery the wrong way to have even a chance of hitting the plant.

Ukraine, on the other hand can only shell into the plant. The Russians would sacrifice troops to demonstrate Ukraine has deliberately shelled the largest nuclear facility in Europe.

Ukraine face a very difficult choice. They can't allow the Russians to continue holding it, but shelling it will look very bad internationally.

Ta for the information on the grid etc. I was wondering whether the Russians would play games with the electricity supply, but I guess that might not be possible
 
potatogate said:
Regardless of accuracy issues, the russians would have to literally be facing their artillery the wrong way to have even a chance of hitting the plant.
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You not seen the Russian missile targeting its own launch platform then? :D

The Russians seem up for doing anything to either prove a point on the world stage or push the "special military operation" narrative back home, I would not put it past them to shell the plant.
 
potatogate said:
My pont is that, as things stand, this a highly strategic fortress for Russia, and they will exploit that ruthlessly.

i see the Russians as treating their soldiers as expendable and that's always been the Russian way of war. I don't think I've ever said anything to the contrary.

Regardless of accuracy issues, the russians would have to literally be facing their artillery the wrong way to have even a chance of hitting the plant.

Ukraine, on the other hand can only shell into the plant. The Russians would sacrifice troops to demonstrate Ukraine has deliberately shelled the largest nuclear facility in Europe.

Ukraine face a very difficult choice. They can't allow the Russians to continue holding it, but shelling it will look very bad internationally.

Ta for the information on the grid etc. I was wondering whether the Russians would play games with the electricity supply, but I guess that might not be possible
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It's also a stick to beat Ukraine and the West with by pretending we're the aggressors who want to destroy the world.

Putin got elected partly due to a bombing campaign the FSB undertook against it's own people, so their definition of what is rational and ours are just not the same.
 
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