Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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I think the view in the Kremlin is that the West's support will dwindle and buckle over time. That Western Europe, in particular, doesn't have the stomach for high energy prices over winter and the war's impact on inflation. That warm words will give way to "pragmatism" and countries that back Ukraine now will start pressuring it to accept a deal that surrenders large amounts of territory to Russia.


I think the view in the Kremlin is very true, Europe are already buckling, and here in the UK councils are trembling behind closed door meetings about how to accommodate all the Ukrainian refugees people no longer want to house, not to mention all time record numbers of illegals being brought safely ashore in Dover.

Wait until the heating isn't working and the bailiffs are at people's doors and see how governments emptying their coffers into and for Ukraine and the rubber boat people goes down.

I said months ago the Ukrainian refugee cash for a room situation would flounder, many here were appalled or laughed. Come winter European support for ploughing more and more money and resources into Ukraine will too, leaving massive debts never to be repaid and our housing situations far worse. Anyway, wasn't Mr Putin dying? The war all but over and the Russians a laughing stock? We'll see whose laughing in Germany in a few months. Things are bad there now and rapidly going down hill. Time to see what 2 million mainly undocumented refugees can do to help their hosts out...
 
I think the view in the Kremlin is very true, Europe are already buckling, and here in the UK councils are trembling behind closed door meetings about how to accommodate all the Ukrainian refugees people no longer want to house, not to mention all time record numbers of illegals being brought safely ashore in Dover.

Wait until the heating isn't working and the bailiffs are at people's doors and see how governments emptying their coffers into and for Ukraine and the rubber boat people goes down.

I said months ago the Ukrainian refugee cash for a room situation would flounder, many here were appalled or laughed. Come winter European support for ploughing more and more money and resources into Ukraine will too, leaving massive debts never to be repaid and our housing situations far worse. Anyway, wasn't Mr Putin dying? The war all but over and the Russians a laughing stock? We'll see whose laughing in Germany in a few months. Things are bad there now and rapidly going down hill. Time to see what 2 million mainly undocumented refugees can do to help their hosts out...

Delusional.
 
Delusional.
Delusional ehh ;)

From the Financial Times:


UK welcome for Ukrainian refugees turns sour as hosts start to run out of patience​


For a group of 250 Ukrainians marooned at a motorway hotel in Wales, life under the Homes for Ukraine scheme — so welcoming at first — has been turning sour. The Welsh government had originally promised the families they would be rehoused within weeks. Instead, they have been stranded, in some cases, for more than four months. Eating the same sandwich suppers, anxious about how their children will be schooled and with no near-term prospect of moving on, their hopes are fading. “It’s like we have been thrown away in the wilderness,” said Ibrahim Dally, a 25-year-old dentist originally from Lebanon, but who studied, married and settled in Ukraine before fleeing the Russian invasion. Five months after the government in Westminster devised the Homes for Ukraine scheme as a response to the gravest refugee crisis in Europe since the second world war, trouble is looming for many who have arrived in Britain via this route. A crisis is also in the making for cash-strapped councils responsible for their welfare. The scheme, which was beset by bureaucratic snags at the outset but has proved a success in many instances, allows sanctuary to Ukrainian refugees provided they have a sponsor willing to host them for at least six months. As of this week, 127,300 visas have been issued this way, with a further 49,700 granted under a different route for those with UK resident family members.


Ursula von der Leyen faces winter recession crisis as energy prices smash Europe​

ENERGY prices continue to soar across Europe, as the summer heat sends demand up and production capacity down as Russia continues to restrict gas supplies - many now fear there is no end in sight other than recession.​



The European Union and NATO are afraid of the collapse of agreements on the support of Ukraine due to the energy crisis, the increase in food prices and the prospects for the economic recession. It is reported by CNN.

“In the European Union, everything will be very difficult, and at the same time we will have to adhere to our promise to cut Russia from any income from gas and other sources,” one of the European diplomats on the terms of anonymity told reporters.

Ukraine is increasingly difficult to draw attention to war, since European states are increasingly focusing on their problems.

“Perhaps that is why Zelensky said that he wanted the war to end before Christmas, because the real problems will be to force the West to fulfils its promises in the long run,” said Chatham House.
 
You know one thing which would absolutely not reduce the number of Ukrainian refugees? Stopping aid to Ukraine. Russian troops advancing will just create more refugees.

Stopping aid or trying to strongarm Ukraine into surrender at this point for short term gain would be a disaster for Europe. Would destroy international credibility, give Putin a big win and encourage Russia and other bad actors to throw their weight around in future, massively harm relations between Eastern and Western Europe, and create the conditions for future instability and tensions.

Standing united behind Ukraine for as long as it wants to keep fighting is the only option that makes sense, and it's the right thing to do too.

We managed to keep up a war in Afghanistan for decades, it would be perverse to give up on Ukraine so quickly when there is such a clear long term goal for the country (return to independence for the whole country) and it's such a clear case of aggression by a bad actor.

Ukraine needs more military aid not less. Even acknowledging that eventually there will be a dimplomatic resolution to the war, it needs to be from a position of strength.
 
Err, what tangible good for us has come from keeping a war in Afghanistan going for so long with no decisive result?

And as for one thing that would reduce the number of refugees in general coming here is saying no to them and backing it up.
 
Err, what tangible good for us has come from keeping a war in Afghanistan going for so long with no decisive result?
Weird response.
1. There was a pretty decisive result. The US & allies failed to create a durable state, ran out of patience, and the Taliban won.
2. There were some benefits to some Afghans over the period of intervention. Overall there were massively more costs and downsides than benefits though, I'd argue.
3. In Afghanistan we actually had to send soldiers as well as well as money and materiel.

And yet, we kept it up for decades. Shows that the West can have endurance.

Unlike Afghanistan, there is a clear benefit and relatively good long term plan for Ukraine.
 
Weird response.
1. There was a pretty decisive result. The US & allies failed to create a durable state, ran out of patience, and the Taliban won.
2. There were some benefits to some Afghans over the period of intervention. Overall there were massively more costs and downsides than benefits though, I'd argue.
3. In Afghanistan we actually had to send soldiers as well as well as money and materiel.

And yet, we kept it up for decades. Shows that the West can have endurance.

Unlike Afghanistan, there is a clear benefit and relatively good long term plan for Ukraine.

What's the long term plan, are those economies helping them out going to claim a stake in their GDP for a good many years?

When I said "no decisive result" I meant for us, not Afghanistan :) How much did that little skirmish cost the west?
 
What's the long term plan, are those economies helping them out going to claim a stake in their GDP for a good many years?

When I said "no decisive result" I meant for us, not Afghanistan :) How much did that little skirmish cost the west?
The long term plan is that Ukraine kicks the Russians out, and goes back to governing itself. They can decide what that means, but it seems almost certain that it will involve continuing to grow closer to the rest of Europe.

Almost irrelevant if/how/when countries supplying aid get their money back from Ukraine or not. The international politics are much more important. It's completely secondary to the Russians being pushed back.
 
We managed to keep up a war in Afghanistan for decades, it would be perverse to give up on Ukraine so quickly when there is such a clear long term goal for the country (return to independence for the whole country) and it's such a clear case of aggression by a bad actor.

Which took a considerable proportion of the USA and U.K. military to control the cities and the major towns. ISAF controlled nothing beyond the range of their binoculars from each fire base.

And that was two of the best equipped and trained military forces on the planet against a bunch of uneducated peasants with next to zero training equipped with ageing Soviet era infantry weapons and comms supplied by Radio Shack.

Supporting Ukraine against Russia will require NATO to train replacement Ukrainian troops at WW2 rates because the one thing Russia has plenty of is manpower.
 
Which took a considerable proportion of the USA and U.K. military to control the cities and the major towns. ISAF controlled nothing beyond the range of their binoculars from each fire base.

And that was two of the best equipped and trained military forces on the planet against a bunch of uneducated peasants with next to zero training equipped with ageing Soviet era infantry weapons and comms supplied by Radio Shack.

Supporting Ukraine against Russia will require NATO to train replacement Ukrainian troops at WW2 rates because the one thing Russia has plenty of is manpower.
We should indeed be training massive numbers of Ukrainian troops, but the scenarios are completely different. The Russians are not going to be the motivated fighters with local support that the Taliban were. The Ukrainian rural population aren't just going to all become Russian sympathisers, and Russian troops won't be able to infiltrate areas like the Taliban did.

I regret bringing up Afghanistan now!
 
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