Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Lord-Jaffa]

How would you threaten a country that has thousands of nukes and has just used them? I can only see economic sanctiosn personally, the risk of threatening a nuclear power just isn't worth it. Better to build a massive coalition to deny them every possible resource.

Have you seen the size of Russia? What resource could be denied them that they dont already have an abundance of, all they need to do is turn the gas pipes off and all the elderly of Europe would be dead over winter.

With the meat puppet in the White House walking around on auto pilot, China and Russia are free to do what they want, who could possibly stop them, who even has the will to try. The UK doesnt even have the logistical capacity to force project anymore, it's the US which ends up assisting us there.

 

[The Running Man]

Have you seen the size of Russia? What resource could be denied them that they dont already have an abundance of, all they need to do is turn the gas pipes off and all the elderly of Europe would be dead over winter.

With the meat puppet in the White House walking around on auto pilot, China and Russia are free to do what they want, who could possibly stop them, who even has the will to try. The UK doesnt even have the logistical capacity to force project anymore, it's the US which ends up assisting us there.

Money

 

[PlacidCasual]

Have you seen the size of Russia? What resource could be denied them that they dont already have an abundance of, all they need to do is turn the gas pipes off and all the elderly of Europe would be dead over winter.

Fair challenge. I was thinking, steel, process chemicals, fertilisers, food, electronics and computer chips. Lots of things Russia for instance isn't self sufficient in. Autarky is an option for them but not an ideal one.

 

[VincentHanna]

With the meat puppet in the White House walking around on auto pilot, China and Russia are free to do what they want, who could possibly stop them, who even has the will to try. The UK doesnt even have the logistical capacity to force project anymore, it's the US which ends up assisting us there.

Trump was much stronger on Russia, right?

Chortle.

 

[Lord-Jaffa]

Trump was much stronger on Russia, right?

Chortle.

He was unpredictable and willing to act, remind me again who was in office when Russia last annexed part of Ukraine?

 

[Rroff]

Hard to make out fact from propaganda, etc. but growing signs things are getting more serious - more military vehicles seen marked up in a manner more usually used for invasion purposes (ident reasons), redeployment of officials and/or converting where they are into hardened positions, warnings against what are purely defensive actions on the part of Ukraine, etc. as if they were aggressive (not to imply whether Ukraine is involved in aggressive actions or not) - which is usually a bad sign.

At the same time even assuming Russia has moved some capabilities forward using subterfuge to disguise numbers and hardware as some are claiming which I have no idea if they are correct or not the numbers talked about are only 1/10th what would be required for a serious incursion into Ukraine.

EDIT: Assuming the information is real - the sightings of large amounts of Tyulpans being shipped in and heavy weight units pulled from South Eastern military districts into Crimea tends to go against the narrative that this more for political ends and increasingly towards military ones.

 

[Enkore]

Its been what over 6 years, if you read OP - he was right. Ukraines economy is destroyed and chances of EU membership are slim to none.

My opinion is that Russia wont make a move unless they really have to. They have all to lose and nothing to win by another war, including sanctions and nord stream 2.

If you actually take a moment and look into chronology of 2014 revolution you will see that invasion of Crimea was knee jerk forced reaction that putin did to save himself in eyes of electorate. Many people do not know that in 2014 EU, US, Russia, opposition and UA gov agreed that Yanukovych would step down for elections in 6 months. Election where poroshenko was supposed to win by a landslide anyhow. The idea behind this was that putin while defeated was able to save face. He lost Ukraine but it was ‘peoples will’.

Instead, the far right have stormed the government and installed their own leadership which tried banning russian language immediatly. This caused huge unrest in east and Crimea. Putin was forced into action to save face in russia. After all the propaganda machine in russia was spewing for months that the euromaidan was coming for russians in Ukraine. Banning communist party and trying to ban russian language immediatly after they stormed parliament did not help. Without putins action, hed be removed from office very qiickly as russian public oppinion demanded for intervention.

You need to look beyond whats out there and look into chronology of events in Ukraine. You also need to look deeper into the events, its not as simple as black and white.

 

[Rroff]

My opinion is that Russia wont make a move unless they really have to. They have all to lose and nothing to win by another war, including sanctions and nord stream 2.

I'm not sure what the play is here - but the numbers don't tend to support an offensive - it is difficult to get real figures but looks like they've moved/mobilised maybe 1000 irregulars (if this was a real invasion they'd probably mobilise/conscript 10s of thousands to use as meat grinders), ~25K frontline forces staged (including units brought in from other districts) and 100K or so regular/support forces and other manpower including officers, etc. generally in the vicinity - that is about 1/10th what they'd need to commit for a serious incursion into Ukraine. Likewise while they seem to have built a few new camps with medical facilities, etc. as if to be ready to receive casualties they are more of the level of dealing with a few 100s.

On the other hand some of the stuff going on doesn't make much sense from the perspective of exercises or normal troop rotation, etc. some of the hardware and numbers that seem to be on the move you wouldn't bother with at that level even for a bit of sabre rattling, likewise some of the readiness preparations like hardening infrastructure though on the other hand I've not seen any talk of activity going on to prepare logistic routes, etc. which would be needed to keep things moving forward.

 

[Enkore]

I'm not sure what the play is here - but the numbers don't tend to support an offensive - it is difficult to get real figures but looks like they've moved/mobilised maybe 1000 irregulars (if this was a real invasion they'd probably mobilise/conscript 10s of thousands to use as meat grinders), ~25K frontline forces staged (including units brought in from other districts) and 100K or so regular/support forces and other manpower including officers, etc. generally in the vicinity - that is about 1/10th what they'd need to commit for a serious incursion into Ukraine. Likewise while they seem to have built a few new camps with medical facilities, etc. as if to be ready to receive casualties they are more of the level of dealing with a few 100s.

On the other hand some of the stuff going on doesn't make much sense from the perspective of exercises or normal troop rotation, etc. some of the hardware and numbers that seem to be on the move you wouldn't bother with at that level even for a bit of sabre rattling, likewise some of the readiness preparations like hardening infrastructure though on the other hand I've not seen any talk of activity going on to prepare logistic routes, etc. which would be needed to keep things moving forward.

My personal opinion is that they mobilized equipment and force that would be able to react immediately and halt any Ukrainian advances along frontline if it comes to it. Ukranian army has improved a lot since 2014, I think even Russians said that if Ukraine does attack - the rebels have no chance and will be wiped out without russian direct intervention.

You have to realize that Ukraine has enough manpower to rip through the rebel regions and get to russian border within a day or so.

If that happens, either putin will have to declare direct war on Ukraine or take it on the chin and resign (wont happen) because he's only supported by war-mongering population that his propaganda machine created. He's hostage to his own situation.

The danger here is that things get out of hand and there is a serious escalation. I believe thats what happened in 2014 as well. I believe the West and Putin basically agreed on terms that Putin thought would save his face and to live to battle over Ukraine in future. Its not like this was a first pro west revolution in country. Instead, the government was stormed over by right-wing nationalists, EU and US backed them - ripped up the agreement they made with russia.

Putin was left with a choice either to essentially resign due to hummiliating defeat and in-ability to follow through or attack, so he did. Putin is not some mystical god, he's hostage to his electors. I don't think the Crimea and Donbass was planned at all, if anything it looked like last minute gamble to salvage the situation. Same thing can happen now as well.

 

[Rroff]

My personal opinion is that they mobilized equipment and force that would be able to react immediately and halt any Ukrainian advances along frontline if it comes to it. Ukranian army has improved a lot since 2014, I think even Russians said that if Ukraine does attack - the rebels have no chance and will be wiped out without russian direct intervention.

You have to realize that Ukraine has enough manpower to rip through the rebel regions and get to russian border within a day or so.

If that happens, either putin will have to declare direct war on Ukraine or take it on the chin and resign (wont happen) because he's only supported by war-mongering population that his propaganda machine created. He's hostage to his own situation.

The new stuff they appear to be moving that direction doesn't seem like the right composition for that - a lot of hardware designed to support softening up opposing front lines and/or insertion behind hostile front lines before an attack, etc. not so much for smashing an advancing army.

 

[Enkore]

The new stuff they appear to be moving that direction doesn't seem like the right composition for that - a lot of hardware designed to support softening up opposing front lines and/or insertion behind hostile front lines before an attack, etc. not so much for smashing an advancing army.

As I've seen, majority of their pulled equipment is mobile artillery is it not? Grads, Uragans, Tulpans and Mstas.

In Russian war doctrine they use all that on incoming infantry and equipment, well on the offensive too. Its versatile. I believe the idea is that if there is confrontation is to support from distance with massive shelling of Ukranian forces while the rebels hold the line. If situation escalates, they all rush for russian border if need be - its mobile artillery for a reason.

You have to also realize that Grad, Uragans and Mstas shelling still offer some of deniability as rebels have similar equipment. Russians cant exactly send in their air-force to raid Ukranian positions without all out war.

I think the idea is that if Ukranian army does advance, the rebels would hold the line on ground while russians offer overwhelming fire assistance behind the lines on ukranian positions. All while saying Mstas and Uragans are operated by farmers from donbass. All that russian artilery equipment packs a rather huge punch, it would kick any wind out of any advancing forces.

If you look at all that equipment they're sending, its essentially a fire support that's designed to replace ability of air support.

 

[Rroff]

As I've seen, majority of their pulled equipment is mobile artillery is it not? Grads, Uragans, Tulpans and Mstas.

In Russian war doctrine they use all that on incoming infantry and equipment, well on the offensive too. Its versatile. I believe the idea is that if there is confrontation is to support from distance with massive shelling of Ukranian forces while the rebels hold the line. If situation escalates, they all rush for russian border if need be - its mobile artillery for a reason.

You have to also realize that Grad, Uragans and Mstas shelling still offer some of deniability as rebels have similar equipment. Russians cant exactly send in their air-force to raid Ukranian positions without all out war.

I think the idea is that if Ukranian army does advance, the rebels would hold the line on ground while russians offer overwhelming fire assistance behind the lines on ukranian positions. All while saying Mstas and Uragans are operated by farmers from donbass. All that russian artilery equipment packs a rather huge punch, it would kick any wind out of any advancing forces.

If you look at all that equipment they're sending, its essentially a fire support that's designed to replace ability of air support.

Stuff like Grads sure but a lot of the rest it would be a convoluted way to go about it and/or a poor operational choice.

For instance the rebels don't really have Tyulpans let alone the upgraded variant and they are much more suited to softening up static positions before an advance than against an advancing force due to factors like rate of fire - while they might have potential application for counter-battery use against supporting artillery for an attacking force it would be a poor choice here as they would be out-ranged by Ukrainian heavier artillery and ineffective against the more mobile shorter range stuff.

Same with many of the units being moved up such as paratroop, recon and naval attached forces - while by their nature they might have some use for rapid, non-committal hit and run type action which might be used to harass or discourage an advancing force without getting bogged down in costly fighting their roles are much more usually connected with spearheading an assault - the kind of units used to secure Crimea in the first place and not the first or even really second choice for dealing with an advance - although as before they lack the numbers to compliment them in terms of meat grinder and heavy armour, etc. you'd normally associate with an invasion or major incursion.

 

[Enkore]

Stuff like Grads sure but a lot of the rest it would be a convoluted way to go about it and/or a poor operational choice.

For instance the rebels don't really have Tyulpans let alone the upgraded variant and they are much more suited to softening up static positions before an advance than against an advancing force due to factors like rate of fire - while they might have potential application for counter-battery use against supporting artillery for an attacking force it would be a poor choice here as they would be out-ranged by Ukrainian heavier artillery and ineffective against the more mobile shorter range stuff.
.

Tyulpans are part of a layered artillery support system though. There is a reason why there are Grads, Uraganas, Mstas. Tyulpans. Its a layered artillery support system designed to address each issue, including disabling Ukranian heavy artillery systems. Meanwhile Grads and Uraganas are mostly against live forces. Mstas have range up to 80km but they are slow firing, I'd assume they'd use that to target Ukranian heavy artillery meanwhile other smaller caliber - rapid fire systems would plummet infantry positions closer.

Like I said, I believe they are layering artillery system in order to make up for in-ability to use air support. This is all to still have deniability that russia is not directly involved in conflict.

If anything, I think this is a sign that russia does not expect to enter large scale offensive. The roles of these artillery systems would be carried out by close ground support vehicles including su-25's and gunships like ka-52's and Mi's if this was an all out war. Meanwhile Kalibr's and Tochkas would be used to surpress all enemy artillery and command centers from way out of range.

As far as I'm aware, russia does not have extensive attack drone capability, therefore in this specific case - layered altillery is all they have.

 

[Rroff]

Tyulpans are part of a layered artillery support system though. There is a reason why there are Grads, Uraganas, Mstas. Tyulpans. Its a layered artillery support system designed to address each issue, including disabling Ukranian heavy artillery systems. Meanwhile Grads and Uraganas are mostly against live forces. Mstas have range up to 80km but they are slow firing, I'd assume they'd use that to target Ukranian heavy artillery meanwhile other smaller caliber - rapid fire systems would plummet infantry positions closer.

Stuff like the Tyulpans is still an odd choice in this case though - Ukraine doesn't really use much which it would be suited for use against in the face of an advance - the smaller more mobile stuff at close range there are better options like the more rapid fire stuff you mention and the heavier artillery can sit back at like 10x its range.

It is much more applicable to softening up static hardened points before an advance.

The whole setup is a bit odd TBH - initially it had value politically - but the form it is taking, lot of light assault forces, etc. is the kind best suited to capturing somewhere like Crimea in the face of probable light to medium resistance where the enemy can't rapidly reinforce the defences with heavier stuff - and no target like that really presents itself as they already have Crimea.

 

[alchal]

I imagine the little green men will be operating the armour/arty in support for deniability with the rebels doing the main fighting, can't see any Russian aircraft in support as that's a hard one to deny other than maybe some helicopter airlift support possibly.

 

[Enkore]

I imagine the little green men will be operating the armour/arty in support for deniability with the rebels doing the main fighting, can't see any Russian aircraft in support as that's a hard one to deny other than maybe some helicopter airlift support possibly.

Exactly this. I think its stupid to deny that russian army is operating a lot of the equipment in donbass. However, after reading some Ukranian news they seem to have an oppinion that they have been at direct war with russia for past 7 years? Which gets me very confused, if thats the case then why are you worried about buildup of russian troops near border - you've been at war with them for 7 years according to yourselves. Truth is always somewhere in middle of propagandas on both sides.

 

[RoboCod]

And the fact of the matter is that Russia cannot really afford a huge all out offensive.

 

[Rroff]

And the fact of the matter is that Russia cannot really afford a huge all out offensive.

Just mobilising and supporting their standing armed forces in a major incursion into Ukraine would be scraping the barrel in terms of numbers needed - while leaving the whole rest of the country undefended. They can't really afford it in a [mostly] peace time economy - but it is odd with some of the equipment pulled into readiness - I certainly wouldn't sit back and say it will never happen and/or this is purely in case Ukraine does something crazy.

 

[RoboCod]

Just mobilising and supporting their standing armed forces in a major incursion into Ukraine would be scraping the barrel in terms of numbers needed - while leaving the whole rest of the country undefended. They can't really afford it in a [mostly] peace time economy - but it is odd with some of the equipment pulled into readiness - I certainly wouldn't sit back and say it will never happen and/or this is purely in case Ukraine does something crazy.

Agreed, who knows what Ruskie has in mind, it's often borderline lunacy I do think people believe Russia is this mighty force though and don't realise that in fact their threat really only comes in nuclear form and even they understand that means game over for everyone.

The Russians just don't have the weapons. Sure, some of the platforms are OK. Take the SU-35, it's capable sure but the SU-57, isn't a 5th gen to write home about and they still haven't sold enough to give themselves enough (yet) but even then, the weapons available to them are just really quite poor. FIND, FIX but not much FINISH. Then, if they do deploy forward in a contested operation, they'll be stretching their homeland defence.

They have barely the capable land forces to project with a doctrine based mainly around homeland layered defence.

If they continue build up in Ukraine, the west ought to get them dragged into a few more proxy wars and really stretch them out then.

 

[alchal]

Either way Ukraine has had time to prepare to train and arm up, it's going to cost Russia a lot more this time around, one wonders how he could silence the parents of the dead conscripts this time around or spin a tale of accidents.

Let's hope airlines will avoid the entire region this time around as well if it does kick off!