I err on the side that they are withdrawing rather than trying bait the Ukrainians into some kind of trap on western bank of the river.
Getting units that are withdrawing to stop, turn around and launch a counter attack is incredibility difficult. Withdrawing under fire is one of the most difficult actions a unit can perform, units that not well trained and prepared tend to break apart, lose contact with other parts of their unit, their supplies and command during the withdrawal and become combat ineffective. The Russians might have units that could pull this off successfully, but given what we have seen of the performance of most Russian units I doubt they could pull it off along an entire front.
Having Russian units retreat past fresh units that then bait the Ukrainians into a coordinated counterattack is more plausible, but again unlikely. The Ukrainian have a well developed intelligence system of having people on the ground just watching and the reporting what they see, so these units would have been noticed. Also give Western intelligence agencies seemingly uncanny ability to know Russian orders before they reach the troops on the ground i suspect the Ukrainian would have been tipped off to this and prepared accordingly.
They could be retreating to prepared positions close to the river but again that would be a risky move if they intend to hold those positions in the long term. By getting closer to the river they are letting more Ukrainian artillery in range of the ferry crossings along the river that the Russians depend on for supplies. This makes supplying Russian troops harder and their position even more untenable than it was before.
My 2p on this is that the Russian have been rotating out their more elite units that they sent there in the, summer with the intention that the Ukrainians would launch their main summer offensive towards Kherson. These units have been replaced with lesser quality, almost cannon fodder troops, and have now slipped back across the Dneiper with as many looted washing machines as they can carry. They will take the opportunity to replace their losses in these more elite units over winter (the units still have an experienced core of solider to better the replacement they receive) and be used any potential Russian attacks in the spring, or as a mobile reserve to counter attack further Ukrainian attacks elsewhere. What they are doing now is trying to pull the troops out that they rotated into place the units that have already left. Sadly, given the previous actions of the Russian command and their apparent disregard for the lives of some their troops, I suspect that the loss of a large number of these troop in the retreat would be seen as an acceptable price to pay for getting the better units out of there. Those ferry crossing points / any pontoon bridges the Russians are able to rig up have the potential to become mass killing grounds as they bunch troops up in areas of little cover with artillery raining down around them.
Getting units that are withdrawing to stop, turn around and launch a counter attack is incredibility difficult. Withdrawing under fire is one of the most difficult actions a unit can perform, units that not well trained and prepared tend to break apart, lose contact with other parts of their unit, their supplies and command during the withdrawal and become combat ineffective. The Russians might have units that could pull this off successfully, but given what we have seen of the performance of most Russian units I doubt they could pull it off along an entire front.
Having Russian units retreat past fresh units that then bait the Ukrainians into a coordinated counterattack is more plausible, but again unlikely. The Ukrainian have a well developed intelligence system of having people on the ground just watching and the reporting what they see, so these units would have been noticed. Also give Western intelligence agencies seemingly uncanny ability to know Russian orders before they reach the troops on the ground i suspect the Ukrainian would have been tipped off to this and prepared accordingly.
They could be retreating to prepared positions close to the river but again that would be a risky move if they intend to hold those positions in the long term. By getting closer to the river they are letting more Ukrainian artillery in range of the ferry crossings along the river that the Russians depend on for supplies. This makes supplying Russian troops harder and their position even more untenable than it was before.
My 2p on this is that the Russian have been rotating out their more elite units that they sent there in the, summer with the intention that the Ukrainians would launch their main summer offensive towards Kherson. These units have been replaced with lesser quality, almost cannon fodder troops, and have now slipped back across the Dneiper with as many looted washing machines as they can carry. They will take the opportunity to replace their losses in these more elite units over winter (the units still have an experienced core of solider to better the replacement they receive) and be used any potential Russian attacks in the spring, or as a mobile reserve to counter attack further Ukrainian attacks elsewhere. What they are doing now is trying to pull the troops out that they rotated into place the units that have already left. Sadly, given the previous actions of the Russian command and their apparent disregard for the lives of some their troops, I suspect that the loss of a large number of these troop in the retreat would be seen as an acceptable price to pay for getting the better units out of there. Those ferry crossing points / any pontoon bridges the Russians are able to rig up have the potential to become mass killing grounds as they bunch troops up in areas of little cover with artillery raining down around them.
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