Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[The Running Man]

I wish the commentary in the main stream media had a bit more analysis, all very superficial... Anyone got any good blogs or podcasts to recommend?

Seems to me like a full scale invasion of the whole of Ukraine would overextend Russia a bit, and generate a lot more international pushback than merely nibbling off Crimea and some bits in the East of the country. Makes me lean towards the ideas that the real plan is to generate disharmony among Western allies and make them look weak, or as a distraction for something else (eg consolidating control in Belarus).

I like the idea of some kind of a tie-in to Chinese activity too - they have been doing more and more business together, despite perhaps being rivals in some ways, they can both gain from the decline of the West...

Then again maybe Putin has just got bored of all the 'maskirova' stuff and wants a proper war regardless of the consequences.

Have we? Hadn't heard of that before...

They only need to push from the east and then down from Belarus into Kiev and the whole country would effectively fall.

Sure there would be localised resistance but once you take the east and kiev the small part to the west is nothing to worry about.

 

[Roar87]

If Russia invades Ukraine properly, we're going to war. We have made an agreement with Ukraine like we did with Poland before ww2.

Weird that our entire military isn't mobilised then, America deploying a token 8,500 troops to Estonia, no heavy lift platforms moving hundreds of tanks, you'd think that would be happening if we're going to defend Ukraine

 

[gazref]

For some time I've been of the opinion that a lot of the push for low carbon emissions has more to do with reducing dependency on oil and gas from questionable states, than it has on actually reducing carbon emissions.

Hmmmmmm

 

[AORUS]

America paid a cost in riches and blood. If the aim of Iraq had been to remove Saddam and hand the country back to its people then I think that could have been a worthy cause. Saddam was an evil **** who used WMDs on his own people and started 2 wars, admittedly one with US and UK help. Sadly that wasn't the idea or if it was it got corrupted. While you have people like Putin in power you aren't going to find peaceful solution that doesn't involve throwing a countries population under the bus. If Putin really wants Ukraine no amount of talking to him nicely is going to stop him and I don't think we should just throw the Ukrainian people under the bus.

Everyone is Evil in the East. Except the US, UK, and EU governments I see now! But didn't the threats start from the US and EU to sanction Russia and now UK join in on the merry ground! President Biden has said that an invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II." They forgot Iraq that was most consequential thing that's happened in the world we will never forget. Blood for oil, imo I just hope Putin withdraws but pulls the plug/ rise the prices on the gas on EU & UK for been US puppets again.

 

[alchal]

Everyone is Evil in the East. Except the US, UK, and EU governments I see now! But didn't the threats start from the US and EU to sanction Russia and now UK join in on the merry ground! President Biden has said that an invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II." They forgot Iraq that was most consequential thing that's happened in the world we will never forget. Blood for oil, imo I just hope Putin withdraws but pulls the plug/ rise the prices on the gas on EU & UK for been US puppets again.

It started when Russia invaded the Ukraine, try to keep up old fruit.

 

[ubersonic]

Regarding Russia, why don't we just declare war on them? I mean most stuff I read especially in Ukranian media says they alone kept whole russian army at bay for last 8 years. Surely we can just steam roll them in about a week and a half.

A superlative suggestion, sir. With just two minor flaws. One, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). And two, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). Now I realise that technically speaking that's only one flaw but I thought that it was such a big one that it was worth mentioning twice.

On a serious note, no the Ukrainian military have not been holding off a Russian advance for years, they have been fighting a stalemated civil war against Ukrainian rebels armed and supplied by Russia plus some Russian mercenaries and clandestine troops. If Russia had properly invaded Ukraine already then Ukraine would already be part of Russia (military estimates post Crimea were it would take Russia less than two weeks to take the Ukrainian capitol).

As for us declaring war on them, we would be completely outmatched in almost every regard*. On paper they are a match for the entire EU member states combined militaries (and we're not in the EU anymore so don't have the guarantee of their support) we would be stomped into oblivion and what's worse if we started a conflict we couldn't even rely on NATO support as NATO has a defence pact not an offense pact (NB: the NATO pact doesn't actually require countries to aid a member militarily anyway).

Bad ideas all round.


*The only real paper "advantage" we have over the Russia military is an extra aircraft carrier, not that they are any use in a land war, and the Russians have the means to sink both with relative ease anyway.

 

[Dem2k]

He was taking crap, Putin will get respect when he can face a political opponent without killing or sticking them in prison.

He's a coward

Yeah he's such a coward he should be more like Major Kong for sure.

Germany obviously agrees so they discharged him and sending 5000 helmets over to Ukraine aww such a nice gesture.

 

[BUDFORCE]

A superlative suggestion, sir. With just two minor flaws. One, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). And two, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). Now I realise that technically speaking that's only one flaw but I thought that it was such a big one that it was worth mentioning twice.

On a serious note, no the Ukrainian military have not been holding off a Russian advance for years, they have been fighting a stalemated civil war against Ukrainian rebels armed and supplied by Russia plus some Russian mercenaries and clandestine troops. If Russia had properly invaded Ukraine already then Ukraine would already be part of Russia (military estimates post Crimea were it would take Russia less than two weeks to take the Ukrainian capitol).

As for us declaring war on them, we would be completely outmatched in almost every regard*. On paper they are a match for the entire EU member states combined militaries (and we're not in the EU anymore so don't have the guarantee of their support) we would be stomped into oblivion and what's worse if we started a conflict we couldn't even rely on NATO support as NATO has a defence pact not an offense pact (NB: the NATO pact doesn't actually require countries to aid a member militarily anyway).

Bad ideas all round.


*The only real paper "advantage" we have over the Russia military is an extra aircraft carrier, not that they are any use in a land war, and the Russians have the means to sink both with relative ease anyway.

Yea we'd be totally ******.

But if it got to that I think the whole world goes to ****, and no one wants assured mutual annihilation.....right?

 

[jpaul]

channel4 news at least implied the media/internet streams folks can receive in russia must be significantly censored , so they are not seeing any arms build-up - is that right ?
I hadn't heard that the likes of Apple and Google, as for China, had to cut specific software/search software.

Apparently (Italian) Pirelli was on Putins, I'm not bothered, conference call today - trade must go on.

 

[RoboCod]

Everyone is Evil in the East. Except the US, UK, and EU governments I see now! But didn't the threats start from the US and EU to sanction Russia and now UK join in on the merry ground! President Biden has said that an invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II." They forgot Iraq that was most consequential thing that's happened in the world we will never forget. Blood for oil, imo I just hope Putin withdraws but pulls the plug/ rise the prices on the gas on EU & UK for been US puppets again.

You wish worse upon yourself? How odd.

 

[RoboCod]

A superlative suggestion, sir. With just two minor flaws. One, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). And two, what you read in the Ukrainian media is a complete fabrication (and a comically untrue one at that). Now I realise that technically speaking that's only one flaw but I thought that it was such a big one that it was worth mentioning twice.

On a serious note, no the Ukrainian military have not been holding off a Russian advance for years, they have been fighting a stalemated civil war against Ukrainian rebels armed and supplied by Russia plus some Russian mercenaries and clandestine troops. If Russia had properly invaded Ukraine already then Ukraine would already be part of Russia (military estimates post Crimea were it would take Russia less than two weeks to take the Ukrainian capitol).

As for us declaring war on them, we would be completely outmatched in almost every regard*. On paper they are a match for the entire EU member states combined militaries (and we're not in the EU anymore so don't have the guarantee of their support) we would be stomped into oblivion and what's worse if we started a conflict we couldn't even rely on NATO support as NATO has a defence pact not an offense pact (NB: the NATO pact doesn't actually require countries to aid a member militarily anyway).

Bad ideas all round.


*The only real paper "advantage" we have over the Russia military is an extra aircraft carrier, not that they are any use in a land war, and the Russians have the means to sink both with relative ease anyway.

Yea we'd be totally ******.

But if it got to that I think the whole world goes to ****, and no one wants assured mutual annihilation.....right?

What are you both even talking about?

In your fantastical scenario of outright war it would be NATO vs Russia. The latter wouldn't stand much chance, MAD or not.

@ubersonic you also overlook the fact that despite Russia having weaponry, none of it is much use if they can't find their target in the first place. Russia's ability to conduct ISR and determine targets is notably lacking as compared to NATO.

 

[ubersonic]

What are you both even talking about?

In your fantastical scenario of outright war it would be NATO vs Russia. The latter wouldn't stand much chance, MAD or not.

If you actually read the quote I was replying too it's quite clear

I was responding to a guy who thought it would be a great idea for the UK to preemptively attack Russia. Because he believes the Ukrainian media hype about how their army has been holding off a Russian advance all by themselves since 2014

 

[NickK]

Everyone is Evil in the East. Except the US, UK, and EU governments I see now! But didn't the threats start from the US and EU to sanction Russia and now UK join in on the merry ground! President Biden has said that an invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II." They forgot Iraq that was most consequential thing that's happened in the world we will never forget. Blood for oil, imo I just hope Putin withdraws but pulls the plug/ rise the prices on the gas on EU & UK for been US puppets again.

unfortunely you’ve also missed the Russian attempt with the Iran/Iraq war, the Chinese also selling Iran weapons to maintain a flow of oil to China.

There are more than western oily fingers bloodied with the corpses of native men, women and children.

 

[Dem2k]

What are you both even talking about?

In your fantastical scenario of outright war it would be NATO vs Russia. The latter wouldn't stand much chance, MAD or not.

@ubersonic you also overlook the fact that despite Russia having weaponry, none of it is much use if they can't find their target in the first place. Russia's ability to conduct ISR and determine targets is notably lacking as compared to NATO.

I don't really understand what ISR is so won't comment and if it's something we have over the Russians then great. But I tend to draw a hint of concern when reading tween the lines from this article dated back in April of 2016 and considering the world was hit with a global pandemic 4 years later and was also the year Trump was elected into office I can't see how such a period for NATO would have been such a dramatic shift in its strengthening to counter the concerns stated in the article. They even had a General tell the Senate that they were technically outranged, and outgunned on the ground in Europe. That was four years ago so my question is what's changed and does ISR counter that?

https://warontherocks.com/2016/04/outnumbered-outranged-and-outgunned-how-russia-defeats-nato/

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

Everyone is Evil in the East. Except the US, UK, and EU governments I see now! But didn't the threats start from the US and EU to sanction Russia and now UK join in on the merry ground! President Biden has said that an invasion would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace since World War II." They forgot Iraq that was most consequential thing that's happened in the world we will never forget. Blood for oil, imo I just hope Putin withdraws but pulls the plug/ rise the prices on the gas on EU & UK for been US puppets again.

Russia annexed Crimea, sovereign Ukrainian territory. You don't just slice off parts of another counties territory.

You want Putin to pull the plug on gas to Europe? How is that going to help? Also its a vital revenue for Russia so he isn't shutting it off.

 

[Trusty]

Also its a vital revenue for Russia so he isn't shutting it off.

It's not. It's a legitimate tool for Russia to use and not really feel the effect

 

[arknor]

channel4 news at least implied the media/internet streams folks can receive in russia must be significantly censored , so they are not seeing any arms build-up - is that right ?

yea the great wall of russia, you know russians don't have the normal internet.

that's why you never see them in MMOs or online games.

oh wait.

maybe russian state media isn't showing them but then our media seemed to not show much of the protests in london or EU countries during lockdown so.......

you know there's literally been tons of protests in london in the last 2 years right that didn't really make the news?

our media is just as state controlled if not more so... the media can't even report on a lot of things....

 

[dowie]

Russia have moved over half of their BTGs in total to the Ukraine border. That is a crazy amount for them to just decide to do nothing, turn around and go home

Yeah, the intent to do something is/was there, the potential cost of various options has perhaps changed a bit. I'm not sure they've got the logistical capabilities in place to really go for a big occupation and potential ongoing conflict/insurgency... especially costly with the new weapons delivered too.

Lots of Russians might be suspicious of NATO/the west but they're not all that enthusiastic about invading Ukraine either and Russian troops suffering casualties in large numbers and/or Russia getting hit severely economically can go rather badly for Putin.

Actions that he might well have been planning previously might have a lower chance of occurring as a result, the risk is still there though and he could well decide to still go for some overt military action in the East of the country and/or try to expand the rebel held areas there.

our media is just as state controlled if not more so...

Eh??? No.

 

[Enkore]

All Russian natural oil/gas exports make up for 15% of their GDP. Now they sell it to countries outside of EU like China as well. Imagine thinking that if we stop buying Russian gas that their whole country would collapse over less than 15% of GDP loss.

Considering that they took almost 50% GDP loss in 2014 due to sanctions.

 

[Trusty]

All Russian natural oil/gas exports make up for 15% of their GDP. Now they sell it to countries outside of EU like China as well. Imagine thinking that if we stop buying Russian gas that their whole country would collapse over less than 150% of GDP loss.

Considering that they took almost 50% GDP loss in 2014 due to sanctions.

Gas exports to Europe make up around 5% of exports. Plus Russia has one of the lowest debts to GDP in the world. Laughable to think Russia wouldn't use that tool to annex part of Ukraine