very true assessment but a cheap deal of gas could see it replace coal stations in some areas. Less smog and cheaper than nuclear.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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very true assessment but a cheap deal of gas could see it replace coal stations in some areas. Less smog and cheaper than nuclear.
For some time I've been of the opinion that a lot of the push for low carbon emissions has more to do with reducing dependency on oil and gas from questionable states, than it has on actually reducing carbon emissions.
Theromobaric non-nukes would be their choice. Both shock and awe with massive damage but without the fall out. Russia has had it's own share of nuclear accidents. Also the fall out over Ukraine will do nothing but turn ex-USSR countries against them and a backlash. It would also send a message that may shorten any attempt to take further countries. It would also end up with russia being completely isolated on the international stage.
Russia has had ships off the Irish coast, performing 'exercises' in international waters. Most probably searching for communications cables to be targeted given the "odd" destruction of a Norwegian submarine cable to the arctic. I suspect the tactic is to force broadcast/satellite comms that can both give the base locations away and provide an easy tappable communications channel. With advances in decryption there's a strong chance that encrypted data can be recorded and decrypted now or at a later date whilst the information is still relevant. Russian-Chinese probably have joined in sharing intelligence and decryption.
The second point on this is to appear as a hostile threat to interfere with UK/EU shipping. I pity the sailors on those war ships. Interfering with UK/EU shipping in international waters is akin to piracy and another example of war/not-war line that Russia is treading.
I suspect the 2022 is the year we see Russia isolated through their own actions - even if that means a deliberate move to non-russian gas/energy. I think the days of throwing up a wall of iron are long gone, instead a war will simply result in an immediate destruction of assets at sea using missiles, then a progressive reduction of ground assets. A nuclear launch would simply end the Russian capability as the gas fields would immediately be destroyed. Even with hypersonic nuclear missiles (technology developed with India) - the response would be catastrophic. It would be a zero win result.
Now if only russia hackers had easy access to the internet and reduced the number of channels they needed to attack (reducing bandwidth needed for DOS attacks).. kind of like destroyed submarine cables.. I would suspect that Russia may end up being cut off from the internet as one of the toughest sanctions. Forcing connections through low bandwidth satellites. Destroying submarine cables is essentially part of a cyber-war activity so Russia is no stranger to operating in a war/not-war footing already.
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I think for some it's a nice bonus of going green. I'm sure for others who are on the end of 'lobbying' money (the folks in power) it was the opposite for many, many years. It seems we might, very slowly, be turning the screw back removing those dependencies. Every country should be aiming to be energy self-sufficient as best they can.
Soldato
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The EU on its own without the UK and US would be enough to prevent Russia occupying Poland. This has been gamed out.
It also has to be careful. How many of it's largely conscripted personnel and weapons can it move before other states and organisations decide to make their moves. Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia etc.. With Japan likely to then build up more forces on its disputed islands too.
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Hey, hasn't Ireland gone through enough without the Japanese invading!
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Oops haha. Will correct that spelling.
Caporegime
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US Secretary of state is doing a press conference now.
Nothing too worrying at the moment
Nothing too worrying at the moment
Get involved, probably not likely, use the opportunity to annex Taiwan when there's nothing the west can do about it as their resources and focus are tied up in Eastern Europe, quite possibly.
To give a historical analogy, if you look up the Napoleonic wars on Wikipedia you won't see the USA listed on Napoleons side because they weren't officially, however that doesn't mean they didn't take the opportunity to attack Britain in north America and attempt to conquer Canada, because they totally did as they assumed it would be an ideal time (for reference their invasion went so badly that the Canadian counter offensive saw the white house on fire, lol).
they can just print that no problem.
Regarding Russia, why don't we just declare war on them? I mean most stuff I read especially in Ukranian media says they alone kept whole russian army at bay for last 8 years. Surely we can just steam roll them in about a week and a half.
NATO isn't fighting Russia unless Russia invades a NATO country, which Ukraine isn't. This isn't even worth discussing.
I honestly don't think anything is going to come of this. I was fairly convinced that an invasion was likely but now I'm not so sure.
With the west - very publicly - sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, it makes it clear that an invasion will be bloody. I think Putin was doing the build up to see what the west does as a potential counter. We did nothing of any substance over Crimea so maybe he is just testing the waters to see whether there was any desire to counter.
I just don't think Putin is stupid enough to actually invade.
With the west - very publicly - sending weapons and equipment to Ukraine, it makes it clear that an invasion will be bloody. I think Putin was doing the build up to see what the west does as a potential counter. We did nothing of any substance over Crimea so maybe he is just testing the waters to see whether there was any desire to counter.
I just don't think Putin is stupid enough to actually invade.
It is a difficult one to read - not helped by limited public information. I'm not sure Russia would have mobilised as large a fleet of amphibious assault ships if they weren't seriously considering it but details about them are a bit murky and destination not confirmed though the Black Sea is likely.
It is. I'm pretty sure I've come across this in a long term defence strategy a while ago. Relying on others for energy is a big defence vulnerability.
If Russia invades Ukraine properly, we're going to war. We have made an agreement with Ukraine like we did with Poland before ww2.
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He was taking crap, Putin will get respect when he can face a political opponent without killing or sticking them in prison.
He's a coward
Russia have moved over half of their BTGs in total to the Ukraine border. That is a crazy amount for them to just decide to do nothing, turn around and go home
I wish the commentary in the main stream media had a bit more analysis, all very superficial... Anyone got any good blogs or podcasts to recommend?
Seems to me like a full scale invasion of the whole of Ukraine would overextend Russia a bit, and generate a lot more international pushback than merely nibbling off Crimea and some bits in the East of the country. Makes me lean towards the ideas that the real plan is to generate disharmony among Western allies and make them look weak, or as a distraction for something else (eg consolidating control in Belarus).
I like the idea of some kind of a tie-in to Chinese activity too - they have been doing more and more business together, despite perhaps being rivals in some ways, they can both gain from the decline of the West...
Then again maybe Putin has just got bored of all the 'maskirova' stuff and wants a proper war regardless of the consequences.
Seems to me like a full scale invasion of the whole of Ukraine would overextend Russia a bit, and generate a lot more international pushback than merely nibbling off Crimea and some bits in the East of the country. Makes me lean towards the ideas that the real plan is to generate disharmony among Western allies and make them look weak, or as a distraction for something else (eg consolidating control in Belarus).
I like the idea of some kind of a tie-in to Chinese activity too - they have been doing more and more business together, despite perhaps being rivals in some ways, they can both gain from the decline of the West...
Then again maybe Putin has just got bored of all the 'maskirova' stuff and wants a proper war regardless of the consequences.
Have we? Hadn't heard of that before...
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical is a good site for military goings on operation wise etc
He's getting old, thinking of his statues...
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