Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Minusorange · 29 Jan 2022 at 23:10

Uther said:
UK deploying troops into europe...
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-u...-and-destruction-by-invading-ukraine-12528439

I saw the BBC saying the same

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60185733

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the possible deployment would send a "clear message to the Kremlin".

Not sure what message it's supposed to send apart from telling Vlad they can move troops within allies lands, which should be pretty obvious anyway without having to actually prove it

Rroff · 30 Jan 2022 at 04:24

Not sure I agree with the commentators saying this is a stealth take over of Belarus without a shot fired using Ukraine as a pretext - there is a lot of footage of stuff like bridging equipment, mine clearing, large amounts of anti-air, other heavy assault equipment, etc. moving into Belarus - not stuff you'd really need to move into Belarus in advance in large numbers.

Participant · 30 Jan 2022 at 05:54

If we stand back and let Russia absorb continental countries at will then we really haven't learnt lessons from our recent history.

Custor · 30 Jan 2022 at 07:49

Participant said:
If we stand back and let Russia absorb continental countries at will then we really haven't learnt lessons from our recent history.

Which bit?
Iraq, Panama, Afganistan, Libya, Somalia, Yugoslavia...you can fill the others in. Or Hitler again?

Russian just needs to come up with some crap name for the invasion...that'll be the delay. Something with 'Freedom' in it?

Rroff · 30 Jan 2022 at 10:38

I see the Americans are making sure to get their money's worth out of FORTE12.

alchal · 30 Jan 2022 at 12:42

Custor said:
Which bit?
Iraq, Panama, Afganistan, Libya, Somalia, Yugoslavia...you can fill the others in. Or Hitler again?

Russian just needs to come up with some crap name for the invasion...that'll be the delay. Something with 'Freedom' in it?

Oh lolz
Remind us which of those are now part of the UK or the US?

Rroff · 30 Jan 2022 at 14:37

Had to have a chuckle at this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487711808484003843

Custor · 30 Jan 2022 at 14:48

alchal said:
Oh lolz
Remind us which of those are now part of the UK or the US?

Er none. Which still have the 'wrong' type of government?
Russia re-learnt that 'the law' is to be ignored if you have enough guns.

Its fine to invade people if you don't annex them? Was that the recent history?

Malevolence · 30 Jan 2022 at 14:49

Rroff said:
Had to have a chuckle at this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487711808484003843

Almost as funny as - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident

when the Baltic Fleet of the Imperial Russian Navy mistook a British trawler fleet from Kingston upon Hull in the Dogger Bank area of the North Sea for Imperial Japanese Navy torpedo boats and fired on them. Russian warships also fired on each other in the chaos of the melée.

alchal · 30 Jan 2022 at 15:28

Custor said:
Er none. Which still have the 'wrong' type of government?
Russia re-learnt that 'the law' is to be ignored if you have enough guns.

Its fine to invade people if you don't annex them? Was that the recent history?

Oh you mean like Russia has also being doing all along, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Syria, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, but obviously they learnt it from the west right...

Still not sure what your point was or how it relates to absorbing a country you have invaded.

NickK · 31 Jan 2022 at 18:00

The Running Man said:
Thing is, ukraine isn't a nato country so doing that is pointless.

Unless NATO put troops/peace keepers inside ukraine and say that if they are attacked it is war on Nato then...

The UK has a legal duty to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity.

In 1994, the UK - along with the US - signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest promising "to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine". They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression".

This was in return for Ukraine giving up its massive arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership of the Soviet Union.

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60159622

Enkore · 1 Feb 2022 at 02:09

Minusorange said:
I saw the BBC saying the same

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60185733

Not sure what message it's supposed to send apart from telling Vlad they can move troops within allies lands, which should be pretty obvious anyway without having to actually prove it

Its sending a message that UK can move troops close to Russian border and its great. Meanwhile, Russia is not even allowed to move troops within its own borders. We are clearly superior.

Regarding Russian oligarchs etc, I think its a fine idea actually. Maybe London will become affordable somewhat. I am sure the Russians will reciprocate and kick out companies like BP, which is also great.

The Running Man · 1 Feb 2022 at 05:42

Enkore said:
Its sending a message that UK can move troops close to Russian border and its great. Meanwhile, Russia is not even allowed to move troops within its own borders. We are clearly superior.

Regarding Russian oligarchs etc, I think its a fine idea actually. Maybe London will become affordable somewhat. I am sure the Russians will reciprocate and kick out companies like BP, which is also great.

But surely you understand that Russia moved 100,000 troops first to the border with Ukraine and are threatening to invade.

The uk moved about 1000 troops to a country near Ukraine and they are not sat on the Russian border preparing to invade russian soil.

This is obvious.

Rroff · 1 Feb 2022 at 05:51

In sort of related news finally we have a modern era air defence platform coming online which doesn't depend on the Type 45s :s albeit probably low numbers and bare minimum range for what is needed in the modern era.

Still not seeing the man power build up to support an invasion though according to comments from the US the for instance they expect another 30K Russia troops to be mobilised to Belarus in the next couple of weeks.

arknor · 1 Feb 2022 at 06:11

Enkore said:
Its sending a message that UK can move troops close to Russian border and its great. Meanwhile, Russia is not even allowed to move troops within its own borders. We are clearly superior.

I think there is a difference between aggressive posturing and defensive posturing but maybe that's just me..

if you have a habit of invading people... maybe you shouldn't put troops on a border and then cry that your a sheep not a wolf

NickK · 1 Feb 2022 at 06:32

Rroff said:
In sort of related news finally we have a modern era air defence platform coming online which doesn't depend on the Type 45s :s albeit probably low numbers and bare minimum range for what is needed in the modern era.

Still not seeing the man power build up to support an invasion though according to comments from the US the for instance they expect another 30K Russia troops to be mobilised to Belarus in the next couple of weeks.

Or the US is simply dragging it's heals to reduce risk/cost. It has a legal obligation after urging Ukraine to give ex-soviet nuclear weapons back to russia. If it's not seen to honour that then the US is going to loose credibility - not just here but also in Taiwan and NATO.

alchal · 1 Feb 2022 at 07:10

arknor said:
I think there is a difference between aggressive posturing and defensive posturing but maybe that's just me..

if you have a habit of invading people... maybe you shouldn't put troops on a border and then cry that your a sheep not a wolf

Like Russia did? Or were the eastern countries just liberated and looked after post war as I seem to recall they were all part of mother Russia for some bizzare reason, very wolf in sheep's clothing as you describe it.

Or Poland at the outset of ww2?

But yeah, poor Russia eh.

LOL

Rroff · 1 Feb 2022 at 07:27

NickK said:
Or the US is simply dragging it's heals to reduce risk/cost. It has a legal obligation after urging Ukraine to give ex-soviet nuclear weapons back to russia. If it's not seen to honour that then the US is going to loose credibility - not just here but also in Taiwan and NATO.

Some of the recent videos on social media show newly built Russian bases and/or staging areas with facilities for 1000s but only evidence of 100-200 personnel on site.

I've been doing a bit of digging on some of the videos showing up - many of them on https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin - noticed an interesting pattern though have no idea what it means.

With many of these convoys though heading towards Ukraine a similar composition of vehicles can be found parked up in slightly older satellite or Google maps images at bases in the vicinity of the video/picture forward of their direction of travel. Around a year ago most of these bases appear to have been running on skeleton crews but within the last few months have undergone significant changes - whole buildings demolished (often to park up vehicles), whole new complexes built, lots of new what appear to be temporary facilities erected and a build up of equipment/vehicles which doesn't appear to be situated in a permanent manner i.e. parked up haphazardly along airfield aprons, etc. within the last few weeks many of these bases seem to have gone through what I can only guess at was some kind of snap readiness drill moving ~100 miles in the direction away from Ukraine, sometimes meeting up with other units, then returning back to their base - the photos or videos only ever seem to get leaked/uploaded of the movement back to their base, travelling in the direction of Ukraine or Belarus (most of these convoys appear to be movements of vehicles/equipment which was already moved to the area within the last few weeks and months despite purporting to show newly being moved there).

In the most recent satellite images there is a lot of equipment parked up on these bases but the evidence of personnel (made easier by the snowy weather) is only at 1/10th to 1/3rd capacity.

Much of the heavier equipment which would take longer to make ready for an invasion is in place but while man power is something which can be quickly put into place it still takes time to mobilise at the kind of levels an invasion of this scale would require and so far the evidence just isn't there - even the social media accounts of people being called up only indicate low levels so far.

arknor · 1 Feb 2022 at 08:43

alchal said:
Like Russia did? Or were the eastern countries just liberated and looked after post war as I seem to recall they were all part of mother Russia for some bizzare reason, very wolf in sheep's clothing as you describe it.

Or Poland at the outset of ww2?

But yeah, poor Russia eh.

LOL

I meant Russia is the aggressor.
maybe should have explained better.

Mr Jack · 1 Feb 2022 at 12:19

NickK said:
Or the US is simply dragging it's heals to reduce risk/cost. It has a legal obligation after urging Ukraine to give ex-soviet nuclear weapons back to russia. If it's not seen to honour that then the US is going to loose credibility - not just here but also in Taiwan and NATO.

The Budapest Memorandum commits the UK, the US and Russia to respecting Ukraine's borders and not interfering with its politics through economic pressure (both of which Russia has obviously broken) but it only commits the states to:

Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".

Which is not a legal obligation to defend Ukraine unless Russia brings nukes to the party. Which it won't.