Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[The Running Man]

The problem with Putin is that he has support of the army and the rich.

That is enough to solidify him as the de factor leader without question.

He uses the defend the motherland and that Russia is constantly under attack from the west rhetoric to cattle the people.

The old people want the ussr back and are conditioned to believe it was better and now have decent pensions.

The middle to lower class are the ones being squeezed hard but with the strength of the army and the police they cannot organise any tangible resistance and if they did the leader would get deposed anyway.

 

[Hagar]

I think also a lot of people are missing that this is not Putin, this is Russian foreign policy, point being that if Putin is replaced eventually it will not change legitimate national security concerns of Russia. It is not that Putin wants Ukraine, it is that Russia as a state has fundamental interest in Ukraine not being under external influence, whether this is achieved through soft power diplomatically or militarily. Putin as a "silovik" (as well as his associates) have a more crude way of dealing with things as opposed to more diplomatic approach people as say Medvedev and perhaps if a diplomat will take over the mantle when Putin leaves we will see better relations but fundamentally if the west will want to incorporate Ukraine in its sphere of influence then Russia will become a permanent adversary as opposed to a partner, which is not good for Europe as it will continue to see it's territory militarised.

On the other hand I see this is Europe's issue and not UK's. Following Brexit, the UK did a full on pivot on the US and as such I believe the UK has no drawback from pushing Russia away from Europe. It is only Europe that will be affected.

Of course the UK has an interest in supporting and defending Europe. We are European. The UK is also the second largest contributor to NATO. Without the UK and France there is little other competent European force to resist an attack. I think you are confusing the EU with Europe.
It looks like a cold war is starting again and any benefits that could have accrued from 1989 and the fall of the Soviet Union are about to be lost. New accords between the fascists of China and those of Russia may make things worse for global stability than the 45 years after world war two did.

 

[Rroff]

One of the replies says it's the delegation returning from the olympics

Possible though most of the Olympics traffic went to Sochi, some of the rest is still in China. Looking at the flight history in detail might give some clues.

 

[Enkore]

One other thing that we do not consider is that true relations can be very different in public versus behind scenes. US and Russia could have already made a pact to gang up on China or at least take neutral stance. We could already be in process of de-escalating to Russian demands for such, in least damaging way.

Have you noticed that it seems Biden and Zelenskiy had a problem? Some are saying that Zelenskiy is refusing to execute Minsk agreements. There is a chance that this whole hype about Russian invasion is to force Ukraine into executing these agreements. Have you noticed that a lot of capital has already left Ukraine? Yet none is leaving Russia. We're supplying weapons to make it look better.

Minks agreements would allow to basically federalize Ukraine and forget any chance of NATO membership. As those agreements are executed, the Russian sanctions (a lot of them) will be disbanded.

We really don't know exactly what is going on. There are a lot of angles that we can look at this from.

The reason why I bring this theory up is because we swallowed literally Russian intervention into Kazakhstan with no issue. We pretended it did not happen. Its pretty clear to everyone that if Putin did not fly his troops in - Kazakh leadership would have fell. Perhaps behind closed doors we are going to be submitting to Russian demands in return for them refusing to take part in China's shenanigans. We're just going to make it look like we did not. Remember Cuban missile crisis in which we gloriously won?

I'm sure our politicians in the west are not that idiotic that they do not see nor understand that we simply can not afford to have China-Russian alliance, it could really be the end of us. Imagine Chinese countless troops moving through Russia to European borders?

 

[RoboCod]

Of course the UK has an interest in supporting and defending Europe. We are European. The UK is also the second largest contributor to NATO. Without the UK and France there is little other competent European force to resist an attack. I think you are confusing the EU with Europe.
It looks like a cold war is starting again and any benefits that could have accrued from 1989 and the fall of the Soviet Union are about to be lost. New accords between the fascists of China and those of Russia may make things worse for global stability than the 45 years after world war two did.

The cold War never really ended though, it was just subdued.

 

[Rroff]

I'm sure our politicians in the west are not that idiotic that they do not see nor understand that we simply can not afford to have China-Russian alliance, it could really be the end of us. Imagine Chinese countless troops moving through Russia to European borders?

A Chinese build up on Europe's borders would take a huge undertaking in moving men and equipment - and that only ends one way really - once there is the threat to the existence of nuclear armed nations.

Despite the outward appearance and having a common opposition in the West there is little love between Russia and China - they might lend some support but in a conflict between China and the West it suits Russia's interests more to sit back and let the other powers duke it out weakening each other.

 

[The Running Man]

A Chinese build up on Europe's borders would take a huge undertaking in moving men and equipment - and that only ends one way really - once there is the threat to the existence of nuclear armed nations.

Despite the outward appearance and having a common opposition in the West there is little love between Russia and China - they might lend some support but in a conflict between China and the West it suits Russia's interests more to sit back and let the other powers duke it out weakening each other.

It is a partnership of convenience, where it suits both to poke and prod the Western allies.

The goal for China is freedom from the US in the east and for Russia freedom from Nato in the west.

Of course in 20 or 30 years they may have their own conflict but for now they have a bigger, combined foe that they can work together to oppose.

 

[Stumble Bum]

Russia invading Ukraine

 

[RoboCod]

Russia invading Ukraine

I've watched this for far too long waiting for it to actually hit the post.

 

[Minusorange]

I've watched this for far too long waiting for it to actually hit the post.

It's an accurate depiction of the current status though

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60276342

Russia has assembled about 70% of the military capability needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks, US officials say.

The ground is expected to freeze and harden from mid-February, enabling Moscow to bring in more heavy equipment, the unnamed officials said.

Russia is said to have more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders but denies planning to attack.

The US officials did not provide evidence for their assessment.

They said the information was based on intelligence but that they were unable to give details due to its sensitivity, US media report.

The officials also said they did not know if Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to take such a step, adding that a diplomatic solution was still possible.

Even the media is getting a little bored of the rhetoric of Russia is definitely going to invade and has now backed to them not even being ready yet

Speaking on condition of anonymity, two US officials told Reuters news agency that weather conditions would provide a peak window for Russia to move equipment forward between about 15 February and the end of March.

Is that just moving stuff to the front or into Ukraine proper ? At least we have a date now when it may happen I suppose as I doubt they'll want to risk invasion in spring

 

[Rroff]

Is that just moving stuff to the front or into Ukraine proper ? At least we have a date now when it may happen I suppose as I doubt they'll want to risk invasion in spring

Both really - though Russia tends to use rail (and road) a lot to move heavy stuff forward to staging areas so less required for that - though you don't want the field depots, etc. turning into a bog of mud.

Even if only half of this is non-regular military movements it is hugely costly - I can't imagine they will keep it up very long before either winding stuff down or something kicking off.

Got FORTE12 out again today (drone) doing intel gathering but US/UK ISR, etc. isn't running 24x7 coverage at the moment - a fairly reliable indicator an invasion might be imminent would be multiple missions along the borders with overlapping cover 24x7 rather than just periodic checks seeing what has changed.

It is definitely something we need to keep an eye on for the longer run though - they are iteratively moving more and more equipment to the border regions which isn't going back, another couple of iterations and it would beg the question of what the long term goal was.

EDIT: Another factor - according to reports some of the more experienced mercenary/militia type groups and other units of that nature have been moved into the region - they won't stay there very long one way or another either used or re-tasked within a few short weeks at most.

 

[dowie]

I think also a lot of people are missing that this is not Putin, this is Russian foreign policy, point being that if Putin is replaced eventually it will not change legitimate national security concerns of Russia. It is not that Putin wants Ukraine, it is that Russia as a state has fundamental interest in Ukraine not being under external influence, whether this is achieved through soft power diplomatically or militarily.

These aren't legitimate national security concerns though, what the Ukrainian people choose to decide re: their future has nothing to do with Russia, that people in power there might regret the downfall of the USSR or want to treat Ukraine as some vassal state doesn't make any of this legitimate. If anything it's just highlighting why plenty of Ukrainians want to move away from Russian influence and towards the west, as is their right to do so as an independent country.

 

[bingham67]

Macron said a deal looks very close to stop a war

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60281863

 

[Nerusy]

These aren't legitimate national security concerns though, what the Ukrainian people choose to decide re: their future has nothing to do with Russia, that people in power there might regret the downfall of the USSR or want to treat Ukraine as some vassal state doesn't make any of this legitimate. If anything it's just highlighting why plenty of Ukrainians want to move away from Russian influence and towards the west, as is their right to do so as an independent country.

Of course it is a legitimate national security concern what are you talking about. If Ireland were to join a defensive pact with China and then China's millitary would deply anti ballistic missiles over in Ireland do you not that this would create a major security concern for the UK? Ireland would have every right to deploy Chinese ABM if they want to but it does not change the fact that this hypothetical scenario would create legitimate concern from UK's national security.

Ukrainian right to sovereignty and self determination is not being questioned here. Ukraine can do whatever it wants and choose whichever alliances it pleases and deploy whatever foreign military infrastructure it wants. It does not change the fact that this infrastructure affects Russia's national security.

 

[Rroff]

Macron said a deal looks very close to stop a war

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60281863

Feels very pre-WW2 appeasement.

 

[Enkore]

Feels very pre-WW2 appeasement.

Now read my post above when I said we could be submitting to Russian demands behind scenes. My post was before Macron comments.

 

[Rroff]

Now read my post above when I said we could be submitting to Russian demands behind scenes. My post was before Macron comments.

Not sure what your point is.

 

[dowie]

Of course it is a legitimate national security concern what are you talking about. If Ireland were to join a defensive pact with China and then China's millitary would deply anti ballistic missiles over in Ireland do you not that this would create a major security concern for the UK? Ireland would have every right to deploy Chinese ABM if they want to but it does not change the fact that this hypothetical scenario would create legitimate concern from UK's national security.

Ukrainian right to sovereignty and self determination is not being questioned here. Ukraine can do whatever it wants and choose whichever alliances it pleases and deploy whatever foreign military infrastructure it wants. It does not change the fact that this infrastructure affects Russia's national security.

Not an excuse to invade... Ukraine's right to sovereignty is what is important here, Russia might not like that Ukraine is getting close to the west but that is up to them! you say "Russia as a state has fundamental interest in Ukraine not being under external influence" in reality though Russia has invaded part of Ukraine and is trying to exert plenty of external influence on it.

Yes, Russia can indulge in paranoia about NATO if they like, in reality, they know full well NATO or the EU isn't planning to invade Russia FFS, that's just insane. The only threat here is from Russia to Ukraine, this whole situation is completely down to Russian aggression.

 

[Nerusy]

Not an excuse to invade... Ukraine's right to sovereignty is what is important here, Russia might not like that Ukraine is getting close to the west but that is up to them! you say "Russia as a state has fundamental interest in Ukraine not being under external influence" in reality though Russia has invaded part of Ukraine and is trying to exert plenty of external influence on it.

Yes, Russia can indulge in paranoia about NATO if they like, in reality, they know full well NATO or the EU isn't planning to invade Russia FFS, that's just insane. The only threat here is from Russia to Ukraine, this whole situation is completely down to Russian aggression.

Is this your first venture into international politics, because you are approaching this topic from a strange angle. Yes Russia is exerting its influence on Ukraine, through military invasion and consequent occupation.

Security concern is not an excuse, it is an explanation for the reaction.

We are not debating whether Russia has legal or moral right to invade Ukraine, we are discussing reasons why this might happen. This is geopolitics, there is no magical solution where everybody is treated fairly and everything is fine and according to the mystical unicorn that is international law.

Rights of small/weak states end when it impedes interest of larger nations. It is morally, ethically wrong but this is the way our world works. If you want to say that this is awful well then welcome to the club, geopolitics is an awful thing that leads to countless number of innocent people to suffer.

 

[GGizmo]

I've only been off and on watching this situation. But from what I can tell Putin is wary of the amount of NATO activity near the Russian border. So he's moved his army and military fire power to his side of the border.

I think he has a point if that is what NATO is doing. It's not helped that every time a US spokes person speaks they keep mentioning NATO, as though Ukraine is part of NATO.

I don't see much appetite for a war with Russia from the European (EU) nations. There was no EU country involved in the Budapest deal. If they are ok if Russia invades why are we more concerned than they are?

Unless there are some minerals or natural resources in the Ukraine that's not being mentioned on the regular news?