Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Twinz]

I am former military. We tried to train in conditions and with equipment as close to the real scenario as possible, but I never saw blood supplies / entire medical units in the course of the exercises I participated in.


The thing about amassing troops on a border is that it puts a country on the other side of the buildup in a terrible position if they don't prepare.

 

[Rroff]

Some strange goings on tonight - lot of Russia government/presidential linked aircraft active (may be Olympics related) and a few US Intel assets in the area - not on the regular schedule (though probably a good idea to vary things a bit if you want to do intelligence gathering and not be too predictable).

EDIT: Well one is directly out of Beijing so...

On the other hand type of troops and infrastructure on the border matters. Are the troops/infrastructure present there now common for military exercise or not, if it is not then it may indicate intent to invade. I recall hearing that apparently blood transfusion infrastructure was set up thereabouts near Ukraine. I do not know if this is normal for military drills, if it's not then it surely provides a strong indicator that invasion is being planned.

Unlike a lot of intel on Russia movements I've not seen anything supporting the ramping up of medical facilities and blood, etc. even remotely close to an invasion, not to say it isn't happening but it isn't supported as well with evidence as other aspects.

Russian military movements equipment wise has been way outside of normal exercises or defensive posturing - lots of mothballed hardware showing up such as heavy artillery more suited to offensive use than defence, significant amounts of strategic (i.e. command) level assets, bridging equipment, etc. which normally at most only small amounts would be utilised for exercises.

 

[Enkore]

When will the white house finally come out and say that we're pre-empteviely invading Russia to stop PutoHitler invading Ukraine and the world.

I mean how much longer can they edge us like this. Lets get the show started.

Well looks like Russia and China signed lots of paperwork basically touching each others genitals. We basically pushed Russia into absorbency by China. We should have and could have wedged between the two and never allowed this to happen - like we did during cold war.

Big mistake here that will hurt us dearly in future.

Before the moral police rolls in. Please remember that we have no problem with Saudi's dictatorship regime that has awful human rights and bombs Yemen Children daily with our weapons. Because they are on our side and useful ally.

 

[bobuk]

Be careful what you wish for, once it starts it could be impossible to contain to one region.

I mean how much longer can they edge us like this. Lets get the show started.

 

[RoboCod]

When will the white house finally come out and say that we're pre-empteviely invading Russia to stop PutoHitler invading Ukraine and the world.

 

[Rroff]

Saw an interesting observation just now - ISR flights, etc. over Ukraine and the region looking into Belarus and Russian territory are intermittent and mostly to a fixed schedule give or take, the odd one like last night outside of the normal window. If things were imminent the US/UK would probably have 24x7 eyes in the sky in the build up until things kicked off and they had to vacate the airspace.

 

[Enkore]

Be careful what you wish for, once it starts it could be impossible to contain to one region.

Because we're obviously working over-time to escalate the situation. Once again, we're working so hard that even Ukranian president said to chill out - its too much. Sooner or later this over hyping will yield desired result, all I'm saying lets get it over with.

The way we've been acting is not how you avoid a war, its how you make sure it starts. You may ask why? Because all this posturing is radicalizing your average Ivan to hate the west at home. We're doing what they used to do in middle ages on battleground, showing our rear end to our enemy on battlefield - its not to avoid war for sure.

If we were actually smart, we'd be working over-time right now to wedge a divide between Russia and China and then proceed to finish each off on their own. Instead of that, we are daily trying our hardest to make sure the both integrate in their hatred for the West and begin challenging us on world arena.

I dont know if its our arrogance that we can take all of them on regardless or the politicians have grown extremely dumb.

 

[Rroff]

Because we're obviously working over-time to escalate the situation. Once again, we're working so hard that even Ukranian president said to chill out - its too much. Sooner or later this over hyping will yield desired result, all I'm saying lets get it over with.

Ukrainian president is trying to balance domestic/economic issues with the threat. It makes would be investors and loaners leery if there is the spectre of invasion hanging over the country real or unlikely.

There is also the complication that Russia has moved a lot of hardware into a position where it can be used on relatively short notice if they do invade - trying to react at that point will just not leave enough time to do something effective.

I also find with the US they tend to have significant intelligence gathering capacity but not the same level of ability to interpret it and often seem to shun those with specialist local knowledge for some reason who might be able to read things.

 

[Enkore]

Ukrainian president is trying to balance domestic/economic issues with the threat. It makes would be investors and loaners leery if there is the spectre of invasion hanging over the country real or unlikely.

There is also the complication that Russia has moved a lot of hardware into a position where it can be used on relatively short notice if they do invade - trying to react at that point will just not leave enough time to do something effective.

I also find with the US they tend to have significant intelligence gathering capacity but not the same level of ability to interpret it and often seem to shun those with specialist local knowledge for some reason who might be able to read things.

Have you ever thought of possibility that all this charade is exactly what Putin wants? Why bother invading a country when you can park 100K troops outside and cause everyone to lose their damn minds. Putin has scored so many political points at home with this whole situation - about west constantly screaming how Russia is worlds devil its not even funny anymore. Imagine if we had brain capacity just to announce our intelligence as facts without screaming daily about axis of evil invading freedom. Just daily/weekly briefings of satelite photos with no further insinuations or arguments.

We have Putin over there playing chess, meanwhile we are playing match 4 or something.

This is how our intelligence briefings look like. Now bear in mind, this is from a country that literally fabricated evidence to invade Iraq. Perhaps we really need to make sure to go above and beyond with our allegations and proof.

 

[Rroff]

Have you ever thought of possibility that all this charade is exactly what Putin wants? Why bother invading a country when you can park 100K troops outside and cause everyone to lose their damn minds.

Same difference though. And if he does use that stuff there would be minimal time to react so you can't just ignore it.

Personally not so sure on the chess thing - in the longer run it makes Putin look weak if he ups the ante but then backs down too many times and domestic audiences largely aren't buying into it - more have access to broader information than don't these days and most Russians are concerned more about domestic issues and not so easily distracted from them compared to before.

 

[Enkore]

Personally not so sure on the chess thing - in the longer run it makes Putin look weak if he ups the ante but then backs down too many times and domestic audiences largely aren't buying into it - more have access to broader information than don't these days and most Russians are concerned more about domestic issues and not so easily distracted from them compared to before.

You should look into Russian discussions, they do not see this as Putin upping the ante. They see this as doing whatever they want within their own borders, as NATO does within theirs. They see that this is a double standard that NATO things it has a right to dictate where Russian troops are deployed in Russia. Why do you think Putin asked for NATO forces to be moved away from their borders and we laughed at them? Then proceeded to do this.

All they see is utter arrogance of the West and utter fear mongering and hatred. Look at BBC articles which asks Moscow residents about war with Ukraine, literally almost all are saying its just the west trying to paint Russia in bad light. They literally see almost 0 possibility of invasion of Ukraine. I remember sending this specific report to a friend of mine, his response was that Russians are so scared to speaking to media they will just parrot party's line like North Koreans. When you bring up evidence that if Russians seriously thought they'd invade Ukraine, they would be taking deposits out of banks and converting their rubles to dollars and euro to avoid losing money due to sanctions. Nope, apparently they were just banned from doing it - according to my friend.

Your thought as many of our western annalists seems to be extremely linear, when it is not at all in case of Putin. Do you know what Putin probably wishes right now? That we impose sanctions on Russia just for having military's build up around border. Thankfully we're not that dumb yet.

 

[Rroff]

You should look into Russian discussions, they do not see this as Putin upping the ante. They see this as doing whatever they want within their own borders, as NATO does within theirs. They see that this is a double standard that NATO things it has a right to dictate where Russian troops are deployed in Russia. Why do you think Putin asked for NATO forces to be moved away from their borders and we laughed at them? Then proceeded to do this.

All they see is utter arrogance of the West and utter fear mongering and hatred. Look at BBC articles which asks Moscow residents about war with Ukraine, literally almost all are saying its just the west trying to paint Russia in bad light. They literally see almost 0 possibility of invasion of Ukraine.

I was talking to an external perspective with it making Putin seem weak.

I wouldn't take too much stock in what Russians say when talking to the media - their opinions tend to be somewhat different in a private or more casual setting.

 

[Enkore]

I was talking to an external perspective with it making Putin seem weak.

I wouldn't take too much stock in what Russians say when talking to the media - their opinions tend to be somewhat different in a private or more casual setting.

What do you think is more important to Putin, external perspective or domestic? I don't recall Hitler caring too much what people thought of him externally, if anything he was ultra weak on world arena - even Mussolini though he was a clown.

There you go, you literally responded just as my friend did. Basically ignore that piece of information because Russians are like North Koreans basically. To a regular Russian seeing this is another point for Putins Propaganda. Have you seen russian 'Dozhd' network??? They literally talk trash about Russia and Putin 24/7 while working out of Moscow.

To which I reply, it is very clear to Russians that if they invade Ukraine they will be put in same ranks as Iran and North Korea. Do you see any evidence of people cashing their rubles and converting them into other currency? Do you see people rushing to buy toilet paper or food? They did this for Covid and yet Russia is about to invade a country and become a world pariah in about a week - crickets. Well actually they've been about to invade Ukraine and be sanctioned to the point ruble is toilet paper for past 2 months yet no one cares. What does that tell you about regular Russians opinion whether the whole invade Ukraine is actually legitimate or just a western narrative to paint Russia as agressor?

Like I said, even comments as yours and ideology when regular Russian sees it on reddit etc. They become radicalized because all of sudden they realize the things Putins propaganda has been parroting is actually true.

Did you even notice the latest development with RT and DW?? Russia literally decided not to give documents to accreditate RT in Germany. Just to make it seem like big bad west was going after Russia and took out DW while at it. Russians are not moving in linear movements, everything is two steps sideways. Yet we keep countering it with linear movements.

 

[Rroff]

What do you think is more important to Putin, external perspective or domestic? I don't recall Hitler caring too much what people thought of him externally, if anything he was ultra weak on world arena - even Mussolini though he was a clown.

There you go, you literally responded just as my friend did. Basically ignore that piece of information because Russians are like North Koreans basically. To a regular Russian seeing this is another point for Putins Propaganda. Have you seen russian 'Dozhd' network??? They literally talk trash about Russia and Putin 24/7 while working out of Moscow.

To which I reply, it is very clear to Russians that if they invade Ukraine they will be put in same ranks as Iran and North Korea. Do you see any evidence of people cashing their rubles and converting them into other currency? Do you see people rushing to buy toilet paper or food? They did this for Covid and yet Russia is about to invade a country and become a world pariah in about a week - crickets.

Like I said, even comments as yours and ideology when regular Russian sees it on reddit etc. They become radicalized because all of sudden they realize the things Putins propaganda has been parroting is actually true.

Did you even notice the latest development with RT and DW?? Russia literally decided not to give documents to accreditate RT in Germany. Just to make it seem like big bad west was going after Russia and took out DW while at it. Russians are not moving in linear movements, everything is two steps sideways. Yet we keep countering it with linear movements.

I'm tempted to reply with just a sarcastic smiley TBH - I spend a lot of time taking in perspectives and/or talking to people from a broad range of sources and your average Russian these days is pretty bored with it all, not swayed by whatever Putin is doing and much more concerned by domestic issues like job security, etc. those that talk to the BBC, etc. are more often than not a curated viewpoint and not representative.

 

[Enkore]

I'm tempted to reply with just a sarcastic smiley TBH - I spend a lot of time taking in perspectives and/or talking to people from a broad range of sources and your average Russian these days is pretty bored with it all, not swayed by whatever Putin is doing and much more concerned by domestic issues like job security, etc. those that talk to the BBC, etc. are more often than not a curated viewpoint and not representative.

Ask your broad range of sources from Russia if they think Russia will invade Ukraine very soon like the west has been parroting and what they think about this rhetoric. I'm just curious.

I hope your 'broad range of sources' does not speak English because if they do - they most likely do not represent majority at all.

Even your sources which I believe most likely are not representative at all - just bored with it all?

Imagine knowing your country is about to become North Korea in about a week and just not be bothered at all.

 

[Simon]

Ask your broad range of sources from Russia if they think Russia will invade Ukraine very soon like the west has been parroting and what they think about this rhetoric. I'm just curious.

I hope your 'broad range of sources' does not speak English because if they do - they most likely do not represent majority at all.

Even your sources which I believe most likely are not representative at all - just bored with it all?

Imagine knowing your country is about to become North Korea in about a week and just not be bothered at all.

No they think they won’t

 

[Nerusy]

Did you even notice the latest development with RT and DW?? Russia literally decided not to give documents to accreditate RT in Germany. Just to make it seem like big bad west was going after Russia and took out DW while at it. Russians are not moving in linear movements, everything is two steps sideways. Yet we keep countering it with linear movements.

Did not hear of that little detail, very useful to know.

As a side note, I've been following this thread since pretty much 2014 conflict and Rroff is not really biased or dismissive of various points of view and provides very useful military related information, so as a third party I would say it is unfair of you to paint him as such.

Also regarding media ramping up haltered from both sides was interesting to see. Seemingly normal people are quite enraged right now, calling for invasion/bombings. It is quite fascinating to see how media can create this bloodthirsty furore in such a short amount of time (I was not politically interested during Iraq thing so did not get to see publics reaction back then, hence this is all new to me)

 

[RoboCod]

This is how our intelligence briefings look like.

It's a media briefing.

 

[Enkore]

No they think they won’t

The evidence points that this is specifically the case. Again, no one seems to be panicking or taking measures like dumping Ruble and buying canned food. So I'm inclined to believe BBC article that we dismissed since Russians are too afraid to speak to media.

So lets get this straight. We're parroting daily Russia is about to invade and we'll be turning them into North Korea in about a week and regular Russians are just like whatever. And you tell me that Putin's propaganda is not working on your average Russian?

 

[RoboCod]

Ask your broad range of sources from Russia if they think Russia will invade Ukraine very soon like the west has been parroting and what they think about this rhetoric. I'm just curious.

I hope your 'broad range of sources' does not speak English because if they do - they most likely do not represent majority at all.

Even your sources which I believe most likely are not representative at all - just bored with it all?

Imagine knowing your country is about to become North Korea in about a week and just not be bothered at all.

The fact is, no one knows what is going to happen, nobody has a crystal ball. This means all sides posture and react to each others activities accordingly.