Turkey can mobilise a large armed forces, is ramping up its domestic arms development and manufacturing and investing heavily into stuff like drones/UAVs and modern battle tanks, etc. I wouldn't say they were a peer foe but they are starting to catch up.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Turkey can mobilise a large armed forces, is ramping up its domestic arms development and manufacturing and investing heavily into stuff like drones/UAVs and modern battle tanks, etc. I wouldn't say they were a peer foe but they are starting to catch up.
Putin lately has been far more terse than in the past but seems to be meeting a lot of Western diplomats with a kind of sardonic indulgence - I don't think anything talk wise is really making much difference as to what the outcome may or may not be as far as the Russia leadership is concerned.
Well we're talking about today. It does not matter how much you can mobilize if you have bombs rain on you as your foe achieved air superiority. Turkey does not even have seriously capable SAM system, it would just rain bombs on them 24/7. Battle tanks etc, its all great, when you have air superiority behind you. Without it, it's just cardboard boxes waiting to be wrecked.
To put things into perspective. Su-35S would give our Eurofighter a run for its money in the sky. Russians have more Su-35S than we do Eurofighters.
That's before they can spam their still extremely capable Su-27's with ratio 1 to 2 to our Eurofighters. To put it simply, if we isolate Russian Air-force vs UK Air-force, they will wreck us no doubt and achieve air superiority very quickly.
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Soldato
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Its a moot point, Turkey is another NATO member, a very very unlikely target for Russia.
Didn't Russia and Turkey almost go to war because Turkey shot down Russian plane in Syria? As I recall, NATO said - oh no jose, if this takes off - we aint gna commit to Article 5 in this case.
We can create same situation Comrade, wink wink
Turkey has a reasonable spread of point defence anti-air capabilities. Russia isn't going to be engaging Turkey today anyhow.
Despite public appearances there isn't a lot of love lost between them - a murdered diplomat here, shot down aircraft there, etc. I doubt those things have been forgiven despite appearances.
I think we both understand out of those spot defenses the only one capable of anything decent is the Russian S-400. Which I'm sure will magically turn off by itself somehow. S-125's and Rapiers are not going to do much at all. Stingers are only going to be somewhat effective against helicopters and very low flying SU-25's. They also have some HAWKS but I mean come on this is ancient SAM technologies we're talking about here.
Quite frankly the point that is being made here is that Russians will stomp Ukraine if they go all out. It's not even debatable. Key regular Ukrainian army barracks and depots will be wiped out in first 15 minutes without any chance to mobilize. Russian Kilbr, Tochkaa and Iskander will take all of them out.
Then you're going to have merciless and completely un-challenged air superiority from minute Russians enter airspace of Ukraine.
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Yes I saw that, doesn't mean they would actually do it
That isn't what my comment was about.
Your point was that Turkey is almost a foe match for Russia where I explained to you that not even close of a match.
If they do create another situation where Nato jose's out like last time - if Russia decides to go for it, Turkey will be wrecked pretty fast if left alone with Russians.
Near peer is quite a range - conventionally they wouldn't be a trivial foe for Russia. That is the long and short of my comment nothing more or less. I wasn't saying whether Russia would or wouldn't stomp them or Ukraine.
If I'm being totally honest. I hope that Ukranians do understand that if Russians do invade fully - they have no chance at all. All this saber rattling with our weapon supplies, I'm pretty sure we're just offloading old tech to them, pretty sure they are paying for all we send. And well, it makes us look good.
I mean its all great that we gave them Javelins but like anything these days, when even capable weapon system is isolated and not layered its hopeless. Russians have capability to rain fire with their missiles from distance and from both air and water 24/7 with no challenge in Ukraine. By the time they unload their strike, there wont be that many people able to carry that Javelin to the battlefield let alone fire it.
If I was Ukranian gov or people, I'd be pushing for Minsk agreements but it seems there is no apetite for it - again because people think Javelins will hold putin back. After reading some Ukranian websites, it seems quite a few of their members have this idea that Ukraine has been actively fighting Russian invasion for 8 years and managed to do great - so why worry now. Which is obviously absolutely delusional thought process.
Again considering that we believe US state dept and Biden, now or never is time to start implementing Minsk agreements before whole of Ukraine is lost.
I mean its all great that we gave them Javelins but like anything these days, when even capable weapon system is isolated and not layered its hopeless. Russians have capability to rain fire with their missiles from distance and from both air and water 24/7 with no challenge in Ukraine. By the time they unload their strike, there wont be that many people able to carry that Javelin to the battlefield let alone fire it.
If I was Ukranian gov or people, I'd be pushing for Minsk agreements but it seems there is no apetite for it - again because people think Javelins will hold putin back. After reading some Ukranian websites, it seems quite a few of their members have this idea that Ukraine has been actively fighting Russian invasion for 8 years and managed to do great - so why worry now. Which is obviously absolutely delusional thought process.
Again considering that we believe US state dept and Biden, now or never is time to start implementing Minsk agreements before whole of Ukraine is lost.
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We gave them NLAWs - the thinking being they would have limited engagement possibilities so better to have something which can pop up and shoot rather than stuff like Javelins and Milans, etc. I believe the US shipped them some Javelins and a couple of other anti-tank platforms.
Though we (UK) only shipped them enough to blunt any initial onslaught and would quickly be used up.
EDIT: They aren't a bad option really, assuming they have the ability to use them, Russian light armour and even the T-72 and 80s are relatively more vulnerable to their attack profile than some of the other options which would have to contend with ERA or have top protection systems optimised against them.
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I think we did it to make it look good for ourselves and in turn will cause more bloodshed if/when things kick off. Ukranians have no chance and they should have followed Minsk agreements instead of spitting at them. Our weapon supplies and this propaganda that they have been actively fighting Russian full scale invasion for 8 years is causing them into blind slaughter. Evidence of this is how easily Ukranian gov seems to brush off western alerts for war, they are full of themselves. That is if we do believe Biden and state dept about imminent invasion.
We shipped them plenty of anti-tank platforms, knowing this, do you think Russians are going to roll in their tanks or spend couple days scorching earth from above with anything and everything? By the time they'll be done up above and tanks roll, once again, there wont be anyone to hold those javelins let alone fire one.
I think our shipments ruled out any 'minimal' invasion with plausible deniability without airs upport etc. If anything, we just upped the game to all or nothing with our actions.
The thing with the NLAWs is that they're useful in an insurgency, simple to operate and devastatingly effective as far as pretty much any tank or armoured vehicle Russia has... They're not going to stop an invasion, they can certainly inflict damage in any urban areas or be useful in a resulting insurgency/Russian occupation.
Ukraine is not Vietnam. That insurgency is going to be extremely limited. Its a flat land and their cities are not that huge either.
That insurgency is probably will only be limited to Lvov and its surrounding area. The locals elsewhere will most likely ousts any anti-Russians. I'm pretty sure that pro-russian party is literally 2nd most popular party in country. The Azov's etc, will be cut out mercilessly and fast once there is total control.
Azov and other private battalions are not stupid. Its one thing to fight rebels/Russians on basically equal terms. Its a whole another story when they can rain fire at any point in country with pin-point accuracy on your head and they can physically get to you anywhere.
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