Dowie has a point there - which is also what I'm trying to make - Ukraine is unlikely to meet a Russian advance head on, but they can hunker down to avoid the initial artillery and air strikes, etc. then re-emerge to engage advancing armour, pop, shoot and scoot. Which the NLAW does very well, some of the other platforms like Javelins less so. Put enough hurt on their initial advance and you can seriously demoralise the advancing forces.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Dowie has a point there - which is also what I'm trying to make - Ukraine is unlikely to meet a Russian advance head on, but they can hunker down to avoid the initial artillery and air strikes, etc. then re-emerge to engage advancing armour, pop, shoot and scoot. Which the NLAW does very well, some of the other platforms like Javelins less so. Put enough hurt on their initial advance and you can seriously demoralise the advancing forces.
Where are these NLAW's and Javelins stored? You do realize that Russians have basically infiltrated Ukrainian army and some say even president surrounding circle? I'm sure they have pinpoint accuracy on exactly where each of those is kept and stored. It will be targeted almost immediately.
Perhaps if Ukranians have given out all their javelins and NLAW's to everyone to keep at home - that is another story. Its not the case. Which is absolutely stupid if invasion is days away - and once again points to conspiracy theory that President and top brass are on Putins payroll.
By the time initial strike would be done, majority of these NLAW's and Javelins will be ashes.
Once again, Ukraine has ZERO capability to prevent air-superiority from minute one. They simply won't even have time to distribute supplies before all those depots are ashes.
I don't know specific details but there have been 3-4 different units popping up on Twitter, etc. with pictures of training and/or stock of them - safe to say if an invasion does kick off they will be dispersed pretty quickly if not already and they definitely aren't all being kept in the same place.
Even if they are kept in 100 places. Russians can take that out very easily in first 10 minutes, I'm sure that will be priority. Whatever left will be so demoralized I'm not sure they will even bother.
Soldato
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Seems the most sense though from a completing the western collection perspective, then go for Finland
Thing is, considering Biden and BJ are right and war is on our doorstep. We're totally screwed ourselves on so many levels by thinking only a foot ahead rather than a mile.
- Our supplies to Ukraine have emboldened them to think they can take on Russia - for real. They are refusing to implement Minsk agreements that they signed because they see them as hummilaiting. They think they can take chances with Russian invasion instead.
- Our deadly sanctions with drop of Iron wall around Russia for invasion of Ukraine means why would Russia just stop in Ukraine? If the wall is coming down, why not go after all post Soviet Republics. I mean if they do not, their economy will simply not be able to take the isolation. There is a risk that they will go further and our whole NATO will be called in question. Are we going to go Nuclear over Latvia, probably not. We're going to let Putin take all of that eastern Europe if he does it fast enough. I am sure the Chinese will make a move on Taiwan. Are we going to go nuclear over that? Probably not.
We have boxed ourselves into a corner and I worry that if Putin legitimately thinks about invasion rather than parking his army to make everyone lose their minds - we're totally screwed.
He has nothing to lose once things start falling into places because unless he restores Soviet Union and then some maybe - Russia will collapse very shortly after this trip. This is the guy who says why bother having earth at all if Russia is not there. Quite frankly, if he steps in Ukraine, he's already ready for basically total destruction of everything. Meanwhile, we in west, our bluff will be called. We're not going to launch ICBM's or commit to ground all out war with Russia pretty much over anything until it gets to UK or maybe even more.
None of the above actually threaten U.S existence or peace in any near future. So why on earth would Americans commit millions of losses or even destruction of whole world over Latvia or Spain.
We have Americans over here having the good life, meanwhile we got Russian leadership over there basically making peace with total end of the world and being fine with it.
I mean do you really think Americans will be able to rally any decent conscription or support for a war in Latvia with Russians under a threat of a ballistic missile falling on top of NYC at some random time. Why on earth would you do that, its one thing if you're fighting for your own home and whole another thing when its some gibbersih speaking country.
- Our supplies to Ukraine have emboldened them to think they can take on Russia - for real. They are refusing to implement Minsk agreements that they signed because they see them as hummilaiting. They think they can take chances with Russian invasion instead.
- Our deadly sanctions with drop of Iron wall around Russia for invasion of Ukraine means why would Russia just stop in Ukraine? If the wall is coming down, why not go after all post Soviet Republics. I mean if they do not, their economy will simply not be able to take the isolation. There is a risk that they will go further and our whole NATO will be called in question. Are we going to go Nuclear over Latvia, probably not. We're going to let Putin take all of that eastern Europe if he does it fast enough. I am sure the Chinese will make a move on Taiwan. Are we going to go nuclear over that? Probably not.
We have boxed ourselves into a corner and I worry that if Putin legitimately thinks about invasion rather than parking his army to make everyone lose their minds - we're totally screwed.
He has nothing to lose once things start falling into places because unless he restores Soviet Union and then some maybe - Russia will collapse very shortly after this trip. This is the guy who says why bother having earth at all if Russia is not there. Quite frankly, if he steps in Ukraine, he's already ready for basically total destruction of everything. Meanwhile, we in west, our bluff will be called. We're not going to launch ICBM's or commit to ground all out war with Russia pretty much over anything until it gets to UK or maybe even more.
None of the above actually threaten U.S existence or peace in any near future. So why on earth would Americans commit millions of losses or even destruction of whole world over Latvia or Spain.
We have Americans over here having the good life, meanwhile we got Russian leadership over there basically making peace with total end of the world and being fine with it.
I mean do you really think Americans will be able to rally any decent conscription or support for a war in Latvia with Russians under a threat of a ballistic missile falling on top of NYC at some random time. Why on earth would you do that, its one thing if you're fighting for your own home and whole another thing when its some gibbersih speaking country.
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Soldato
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https://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war#ukraine
Interesting read, this was written 7 years ago
One of the benefits of the man-portable systems like NLAW and Javelin, but especially NLAW, is that they can quickly be spread out - within minutes they will be long gone from any pre-determined location. Much more convenient in that respect than the likes of the Milan and TOWs, etc.
Like I said, I believe those people will be in for a very rude awakening. I think if Putin pushes, we're all going to be in for a rude awakening. The more I watch Russian gov elite, the more I'm concerned. These people seem to be literally depressed and at peace with whole world burning.
Your regular Russian also seems to be rather depressed as well. We're telling them we're going to turn you into North Korea next week and they just shrug their shoulders. If Putin can play his cards right into somehow turning this into holy WW2 where the west came to their home - oh it is going to be so bad. You also have to realize, to many Russians, Ukraine is literally their back yard.
My real concern is that Russia/Russians if they make peace with whole world burning - our bluff will be called. We are not going to risk that as long as conflict is that far away.
Americans would rather take chances with whole of EU falling and then working behind scenes to collapse it all over again rather than risk all out war.
Our biggest mistake has been to rely that much on Americans, their home is on another continent and EU is disposable if there is a major threat of retaliation.
People seem to completely miss that point.
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The key factor there is that if war had broken out back then between Russia/Turkey it would have been due to Russia responding to an aggressive act by Turkey, in which case article 5 wouldn't be applicable.
A Russian attack on Turkey would be a whole different kettle of fish.
Turkey shot Russian plane in its own airspace. It did briefly enter it. Like I said, imagine thinking that Russians could not stage same scenario once again and actually go through with it this time.
Now I wonder if things kick of in Ukraine, there will be simmilair 'accidents' where we will wash away article 5 with Baltics or Poland - who are very supportive of Ukraine.
Like I said, NATO has a lot of flexibility and U.S.A at its helm has A LOT of buffer until it threatens USA itself. No one is going to put continental USA in line of fire over buffer countries - now remember that.
The problem that we have, USA is not a dependable ally at all. There is a lot of hot air and they will fold very fast if there is a real threat of their home being destroyed. U.S will not again, put its own home in sights over buffer states such as EU. Forget Ukraine or Latvia, they will wash their hands of UK if need be.
All Russia and China need to kick U.S out of any war with them over buffer states is to be strong enough to cause major casualties in combat and threaten continental U.S.
You need to realize that USA will honestly be perfectly strong and fine with just controlling whole of north and south america. It will be able to challenge hypothetical USSR 2.0 that takes over whole EU and Whole Asia owned by China. They can live to fight another day easily. That is a very poor ally to have quite frankly.
Its all a game quite frankly to the U.S. Their worst case scenario, where they fold and wash their hands of all EU and Asia - they will still be strong enough. Meanwhile we got Russia over there who will most likely collapse soon at this rate if they do not invade Europe. They still have technology and capability to knock out US of the war which will sooner or later disappear. They know once that ends, its done deal for them.
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This is simply incorrect, while Ukraine would ultimately lose the air war of the invasion without foreign assistance, and fail to hold off the Russian advance it would by no means be the aerial face roll you describe.
It's true that Ukraine only have about 50 MiG-29 (F-16 equivalent) and 30 Su-27 (F-15 equivalent) so would have no chance vs the Russian Air Force (not that the entire Russian air force would actually be committed to the war) it's not a simple case of amount of planes as the main worry for the Russian Air Force wouldn't be Ukraine's planes it would be their SAMS
They still have ~70 Buks and 90 Kubs, plus ~250 S-300. Almost all of these have been upgraded since 2014 so are comparable to the latest Russian models (the Ukrainian spec S-300 are practically on par with the Russian spec S-400). The SAM placements are too deep to be threatened by Russian conventional artillery, and if they moved closer they would end up in range of the Ukrainian artillery.
Anyone who's ever played an RTS game knows that sending aircraft to take out your enemies anti-aircraft units and trying to use your artillery to take their artillery when they have more than you are both dumb ideas. So these are not problems that could be quickly overcome.
Ukranian air-force is in a totally sorry state. I doubt many of those have actually been upgraded or are that air-worthy. Lastly, the Russian air-force will enter Ukraine after a missile attack that is combination of Kalibr, Tochka, Iskanders from land and sea and air based from Tu-95 or Tu-160 . Those will target SAMS and Airfields.
There won't be any of that left in any major quantity to close the skies.
What does Vietnam have to do with anything? Iraq is a flat land too...
Which applies to conventional wars not so much insurgencies... the US and UK had far far better capabilities at both detecting and raining fire down at any point in the country in say Afghanistan, Iraq yet that isn't sufficient to stop an insurgency.
You have a very strong hope for insurgency in Ukraine - I personally do not. However, it is pointless to argue, hopefully we never find out. I can see huge insurgency in countries like Poland but Ukraine apart from western regions - I do not.
I'm not sure what you even mean by "a very strong hope for insurgency in Ukraine"? You don't think an insurgency will happen if Russia were to try and occupy the country?
Apart from Western Regions that border Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania - No. I do not think there will be any meaningful insurgency. For many reasons including no access to border and being sympathetic to Pro Russian views.
In reality bombardment by these kind of systems while comprehensive is rarely as total as your thinking even in all out war.
Only time you get that kind of devastation really is laser (or other guidance) against massed targets in open terrain.
It is not total when the opposing force has vast militaries. Ukrainian military and its air-force/sams numbers are extremely small. Russians can reach any point in Ukraine almost from within its own borders or from Crimea or Black Sea, even from Caspian Sea. Also remember that huge amount of active forces and equipment are concentrated in Donbass.
Even old 1970's Tochka A has 150m accuracy without any laser with its warhead capable of causing damage to anything within 200m radius. Mind you, these are absolutely ancient.
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Tochkas are most useful against static targets like infrastructure, storage facilities, massed troops, etc. if things kick off Ukraine will likely have a reasonable amount of notice thanks to Western intel and likely reposition a lot of stuff, get aircraft up, spread out troops, etc. sure some stuff will become casualties to cruise missiles and the likes once Russia starts getting intel from things like UAVs and satellite or people on the ground. Your thinking seems quite top trumps centric but war in reality often isn't like that.
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