Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Russia murdered an innocent UK citizen, and attempted to murder many more, on UK soil with a nerve agent. The criminal scum reap what they sow. **** 'em!

So do we just categorise a whole country as they're all scum and should die? Because they attack our country because if we take that view, then well ....
 
The moment's before the attack in the cafe:

(note this isn't the attack itself but an edited clip where they cut to black then put on some noise - they have also posted the attack itself further up on the twitter feed, presumably just a few seconds after the end of this clip where an audience member asks a question then the statuette is put back in the box and explodes):

 
Russia claims it will station 12 divisions on the border of Finland



Personally I call BS on this, because since the war has been going on Russias existing defences have been dropping rapidly as it sends units to Ukraine - so there is currently very little to no defence along the Finish border at present (as shown by western satellites). And yet Russia now claims it's going to station over 100k soldiers on the border.. like yeah sure mate take another swiggle of the vodka

I've been thinking about this - satellite images showed most of the bases and installations on the Finnish border largely emptied out especially after about a month or so into the war and generally in a poorly kept state indicating not much use, there only seemed to be some limited missile forces deployed other than some small scale light forces. I don't think it will be that difficult for Russia to mobilise 100K troops with basic infantry capabilities though but if any conflict kicked off (ignoring nukes) Finland would be laughing. People laugh but Russia still has a large man power pool yet and despite a lot of it being junk large amounts of stored military equipment of which there is stuff in reasonable condition in there as well as a lot of stuff which has rusted away.
 
I've been thinking about this - satellite images showed most of the bases and installations on the Finnish border largely emptied out especially after about a month or so into the war and generally in a poorly kept state indicating not much use, there only seemed to be some limited missile forces deployed other than some small scale light forces. I don't think it will be that difficult for Russia to mobilise 100K troops with basic infantry capabilities though but if any conflict kicked off (ignoring nukes) Finland would be laughing. People laugh but Russia still has a large man power pool yet and despite a lot of it being junk large amounts of stored military equipment of which there is stuff in reasonable condition in there as well as a lot of stuff which has rusted away.

This would be a prefect time for Russia to deploy all that top notch gear they've been holding in reserve?

Or not.
 
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If she knew there were explosives in that statue, would she still have sat down so closely?
I have a sneaking suspicion that it may turn out she was like the two women that killed Kim Jong-nam a few years back, in that she was possibly hired/told she was doing something completely innocuous like just handing the item over for an organisation that couldn't make it (IIRC Kim Jong-namwas killed by two women who thought they were taking part in a TV prank show).
 
Yeah seems like a puppet used and selected based on her known affiliation with the anti-war. At same time if she didn't know doesn't explain why she would be there and supporting with giving such a gift if she was anti-war. The next part is then possibly to assume that her background has been fabricated and she was actually a pro-war person whom has been dsicreted with false stories otherwise.

All unknown in the end tbh.
 
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: We Have Seen a Russian Military Build-Up in the North Over Previous Years, This Is Part of a Pattern
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: NATO Is Constantly Assessing Its Posture, Its Exercises
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: Finland’s Accession to NATO Is Truly Historic
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: We Will Ensure That Sweden Will Also Become a Full Member of NATO
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: There Will Ne No NATO Troops in Finland Without Finland’s Consent
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: NATO Does Not Aim to Provoke Conflict, but Prevent Conflict
*NATO’s Stoltenberg: We Have Not Seen so Far Any Change Sin Russia Nuclear Posture That Would Require Any Change in NATO Posture

*Russia’s Spy Chief Naryshkin: Poland Can’t Give Up Plans to Take Control of Western Ukrainian Regions
*Russia’s Spy Chief Naryshkin: West Is Forcing Georgia to Enter Into a Conflict With Russia

*Russia’s Shoigu: NATO Strengthening Anti-Russian Course - IFAX/RIA
*Russia’s Shoigu: Some Belarusian Jets Are Now Capable of Carrying Nuclear Warheads
*Russia’s Shoigu: Finland’s NATO Accession Creates Risks of Significant Expansion of Conflict

*Kremlin: Finland’s Admission to NATO Will Force Russia to Take Countermeasures to Ensure Its Security
*Kremlin: Finland’s Admission to NATO Is an Encroachment on Russia’s Security
*Kremlin: Structure of NATO Alliance Is in Many Ways Hostile Towards Russia
 
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If she knew there were explosives in that statue, would she still have sat down so closely?

Well, she didn't sit down so closely, she stated she was shy as an excuse to not sit closely to him, however, she did stay in the room - possibly knowing that so long as she wasn't right next to him then it would be OK. Or indeed it may well be the case that she didn't know too though as per Werewolf's mention of the NK assassination.
 
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I hope they do, they must be building up some serious equipment and training by now. As soon as the Russians see a brigade worth of Leopard 2s coming for them with infantry and artillery support they'll just break and run. All of their best troops are long dead or tied up in places like Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
 
This would be a prefect time for Russia to deploy all that top notch gear they've been holding in reserve?

Or not.

I think there is a dangerous misconception that Russia's armed forces are hollowed out and down to dregs - there are still significant long standing regular forces not deployed to Ukraine, especially where they are drafted from better off regions, and almost certainly won't ever be deployed to Ukraine due to Putin's paranoia - but Russia is still capable of waging a significant war.
 
I think there is a dangerous misconception that Russia's armed forces are hollowed out and down to dregs - there are still significant long standing regular forces not deployed to Ukraine, especially where they are drafted from better off regions, and almost certainly won't ever be deployed to Ukraine due to Putin's paranoia - but Russia is still capable of waging a significant war.

Which significant regular forces? 4th Guards? They have been smashed already - and 4th Guards were THE unit to face off vs NATO in the race to the Fulda Gap
 
The moment's before the attack in the cafe:

(note this isn't the attack itself but an edited clip where they cut to black then put on some noise - they have also posted the attack itself further up on the twitter feed, presumably just a few seconds after the end of this clip where an audience member asks a question then the statuette is put back in the box and explodes):



Did anyone notice the guy cover his face and turning his head at the start? I find it very odd behaviour.
 
Which significant regular forces? 4th Guards? They have been smashed already - and 4th Guards were THE unit to face off vs NATO in the race to the Fulda Gap

The 1st guards tank were not deployed at full strength however, despite some of the component regiments, etc. taking up to 90% losses in Ukraine. I'm not familiar enough with all the various units/army groups to rattle off names but it is a common misconception for some reason that the losses in Ukraine directly deplete from the pre-war standing army 1:1.

Between 2017 and December 2021 Russia pulled a lot of hardware out of storage and put back into service - one of the reasons I was erring on the side of this being a war for real this time - 100s of T-80 tanks were reactivated - either to use in Ukraine or to cycle out T-72s from other areas to use in Ukraine - which were not part of the ~480 active, 3000 reserve numbers for their pre-war army, same with stuff like the Tyulpan, Pion and other artillery where most of the ones used in Ukraine were brought back out of deep storage between 2019 and December 2021 and "upgraded" such as https://www.armyrecognition.com/wea...ka_203mm_self-propelled_howitzer_upgrade.html and same with many of the helicopters used in the initial assaults north of Kyiv - where about 50% were not from their existing standing stock but literally 1970s stuff put back into use without upgrades or even modern electronics.

EDIT: I might have some specifics wrong but 4th Guards when the war started were found to be at 50% standing level rather than their supposed 80% - of the actual active numbers about 30% were deployed to the Caucasus (later about 30 tanks were pulled from there and sent to Ukraine) about half of what was stationed at their home base was sent to Ukraine (about 90 tanks - later a few more were sent). Their initial deployment to Ukraine took around 90% losses.
 
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*Finland Has Become a Member of NATO, Handing Accession Document to U.S. Secretary of State Blinken
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-becomes-member-nato-2023-04-04/

Finland’s President:
- The Work for Sweden’s Early NATO Membership Continues Relentlessly
- Close Cooperation Will Continue to Build Common Security and Defence Throughout the Nordic Region
- Finland’s Most Significant Contribution to NATO’s Common Deterrence and Defence Is Built on Securing and Defending Our Own Territory
- There Is Still Significant Work to Be Done to Coordinate Finland’s Defence As Part of NATO’s Common Defence
 
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