Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Russia likely still has lots of shells left but what condition there in is another matter, combined with poor logistics, constant attrition of supply trucks and effective counter battery fire from the Ukrainians it's not that surprising that the number of shells they can fire off has collapsed. It's also worth remembering in war no advantage lasts forever, Ukraine was never going to sit back and just let Russia have the advantage over them in artillery fire.
 
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I imagine part of the reason they're firing fewer shells is because the artillery Ukraine has now is a lot more accurate. Meaning they can't fire many shells before having to move or getting hit.
 
Russian logistics can be poor as well for example 2 cases recently where newly mobilised forces, one never had their ammo turn up and the other found it had been dumped randomly in a village 10km or miles from where it was supposed to be. Russia is probably highly dependent on railways for lugging 120+mm shells in bulk and Ukraine has been trying to hit their logistic hubs.
 
Russian logistics can be poor as well for example 2 cases recently where newly mobilised forces, one never had their ammo turn up and the other found it had been dumped randomly in a village 10km or miles from where it was supposed to be. Russia is probably highly dependent on railways for lugging 120+mm shells in bulk and Ukraine has been trying to hit their logistic hubs.
IIRC at the start of this, and probably still now Russia was basically using 1930's logistics methods, pretty much everything loaded manually onto trains and then off them onto trucks, again manually.

Apparently Russia as a country has not adopted the widespread use of shipping pallets and mechanised loading/unloading as the "standard", so whilst pretty much every medium size retailer in the west will have a forklift to help in the warehouse, Russia doesn't tend to do that, and their military especially doesn't.
So IIRC NATO countries tend to have mechanised loading as standard and use either "rough terrain" forklifts, or a good portion of their transport trucks etc have things like cranes to assist in loading/unloading the Russian military is still usually loading it's 1918 - cargo nets and stuff broken down into what a couple of people can lift with no intrinsic systems to help speed up the loading or the safe and reliable stacking for transport.

It makes sense if you are always fighting within a short distance of a working rail line, and you've got loads of untrained personal, but it's a massive issue if you're cross loading to and from trucks as whilst the Nato way is more costly and requires more training it does mean you can shift stuff much faster to more widely dispersed units and with far lower costs in manpower.
 
Probably issues getting that many to the front from NK, and the barrels of the guns are probably also in short supply.

I suspect that barrels are as big a problem as shells for Russia. As for NK, I doubt they're actually getting that many usable shells through. NK can't even supply its "elite" units with bullets, I doubt they can provide Russia with enough shells to make a difference on the frontline.
 
Surely they are holding the best of their ammo for later on. Previously they have only been using their limited reserve ammo.

Just like their soldiers and tanks etc ……
Of course, the armchair generals keep telling us Russia is only using 5% of their Strength so far, they must think we're bloody stupid
 
Surely they are holding the best of their ammo for later on. Previously they have only been using their limited reserve ammo.

Just like their soldiers and tanks etc ……

People say stuff like this but then they go on for months before actually running out... it has taken more than 6 months since people were insisting they'd run out of artillery shells before we've seen their volume of fire reduce significantly, etc.
 
Well the question becomes, can Ukraine now take advantage of the current Russian failures or have they been exhausted wit the defending?
 
Their artillery usage has been constantly dropping off for much longer than just recently. No sane observer has says they will run out completely. But if usage drops too far it has a dramatic effect on Russians operations regardless.

So sure some people here have been exaggerating too optimistically, but you have been doing the exact opposite, exaggerating the other way by constantly making out the Russians are better equipped than they clearly are.
There's a realistic middle ground between the two extremes actually based on the evidence.
 
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Their artillery usage has been constantly dropping off for much longer than just recently. No sane observer has says they will run out completely. But if usage drops too far it has a dramatic effect on Russians operations regardless.

So sure some people here have been exaggerating too optimistically, but you have been doing the exact opposite, exaggerating the other way by constantly making out the Russians are better equipped than they clearly are.
There's a realistic middle ground between the two extremes actually based on the evidence.

Much of what I've been saying has been mirrored by the experiences of Ukrainian commanders on the ground - some of whom post to Twitter. I'll try and dig out some posts later when I'm at my PC.

People seem to quickly forget when I am proven right - like the recent thing with Biden :cry:

EDIT: Example here of where the opinion/experience of someone who purports to be part of the Ukraine military differs from what is often posted in the West:


It is difficult to find a lot of recent posts with all the Israeli/Gaza stuff making older posts hard to find but there have been several similar comments by people in the Ukrainian military.
 
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