Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Did you not read it or you just ignore it?

The commander in chief clearly states the situation is not good without something to differentiate:


If there is no specific breakthrough and he cites F16's as being less useful now, then it's going to devolve into just a war of attrition. In a country (I don't care about Russia as they are the aggressors) which as forced conscription of men of a large range of ages, if the top leadership reckons that without a breakthrough (not saying its not possible) that they will lose simply by numbers...........then it's frankly unethical to not sue for peace. It's even more unethical if people knew this from the start and sent 100,000+ brave Ukrainian men to their deaths needlessly.



edit: Also it was a genuinely quite an interesting insight into the person, character but also the military doctrine of usage of equipment. Sorry if there were too many long words in it and not enough flight radar images for you that you couldn't see the point......
How do you sue for peace when the other side doesn't even think you should exist as people and what makes you think Russia will abide by any peace agreement when it's broken every treaty, agreement, promise it's every made?
 
Apologies for the <snip> but this is borderline lunacy.

Why? It's easy for you and me and most of the people in this thread to say "oh thats crazy", come on Ukraine, send the last of your sons and fathers into a grinding war of attrition. If there is a genuine chance of Ukraine winning peace through war then fine, that is the decision of the people (well maybe no elections anymore but that's another story..) and they can do that. If however there is no path to victory, then the lunacy is sending people off to die needlessly. I'm sorry but there are very few of us here who would genuinely send our children or family off to die at the best of times, let alone in those circumstances where even the commander in chief is saying the path forward is uncertain and Zelensky and his aides (in the time article I posted a couple days ago) admitted corruption and avenues to win.

It's a terribly ****** situation and I feel tremendous compassion for the people who have had their lives destroyed because of geopolitics on both sides. I abhor this waste of life unreservedly. But there has to be a reality that America (and to a far lesser extent Europe who I feel is more genuine) is quite happy to have given Russia an almighty bloody nose (and frankly with their demographic problems even pre war will struggle to ever recover from) at zero expense to themselves without actually caring about the people in question. It has suited and in the future will really suit them. We put up with endless years of whining at them losing a few people in Iraq and yet we're facing 500,000+ dead Ukrainian and Russian people and I really think most people would think they particularly care.

And yet on the converse side, if they DO go all in with all support, then they run the tightrope of a serious escalation and realistic and fair accusations of a proxy war.....and no one wants or realistically is going to risk that hence the nibbling of redlines not a bold "here's all the super weapons go give the ruskies a pasting).


It was a long article which covered a lot of points - you just threw it in without elaboration on what your point was...

...and then straight to being a **** towards me - despite most of what is covered in that article is what I've been saying all along.

Albeit I my conclusion to those points is different to your own - thinking anything can be gained through suing for peace at this point is lunacy after everything we've seen, Putin/Russia will not respect it.

What the US/the West needs to wake up to is what it actually requires for Ukraine to put Russia on the back foot and make actual progress, it isn't so hopeless though many windows for achieving it have been lost, even without grinding down Russia's man power it is possible to make the situation tactically untenable for them so that no Russian soldier or commander will even want to be in Ukraine, more so than many of the mobilised probably don't want to be there now.

EDIT: I don't know how it can be shown any clearer really - Putin has shown he is quite happy to sustain WW2 level losses to get what he wants - he isn't going to settle now for simply carving off a bit of Ukraine, maybe use any kind of settlement to rebuild his forces, he'll happily send many 100s of thousands more to their deaths to get back the whole of Ukraine - even if it wasn't his original intentions, and the opening strategy tends to suggest it was, his mentality won't let him stop there - same as I don't think he set out with a larger conquest of Europe in (serious) mind, but if he'd rolled over Ukraine in a few days while the West sat back weak and ineffectual he just wouldn't be able to stop there it just isn't in his nature.

I disgree and sorry for hurting your feelings, you seem quite direct with words before so I didn't feel the need to sugar coat especially...

Russia has put itself in a ridiculous and stupid position. They are burning through their future and with every day of attrition risk their future demographic pyramid which is already obliterated with the highest rates in the world of abortion, HIV, suicides, substance abuse and all the other good stuff. The idea they are happy to just keep sustaining losses I think is crazy, yet under the current circumstances is all they have. They are already pariahs in the world, relegated to trading with people using them for convenience and their own positions, they have no access to SWIFT network, debt raising and monetary control is going to get significantly more difficult and will lead them to suffering increasingly bullish China and India in negotiations. Offering a stalemate solution of some part of Ukraine and possibly a bespoke NATO deal (not members so no NATO missles on site, but promise of article 5 response if attacked) could possibly provide a means to everyone going home.

But again it's easy for all of us to just say "fight fight fight" when it's not us that dies (we just suffer tailrisk.....can't even call it black swan event because we know its possible....of nuclear escalation albeit improbable). In the worst case scenario Russia can grind this war out for 2 more years based on military analysis. 2 years more of devastation where possibly Ukraine moral collapses, there is an unexpected rout and suddenly they take all of Ukraine? Or two more years with chance of victory? Again if the path for victory is not there, what is there?
 
How do you sue for peace when the other side doesn't even think you should exist as people and what makes you think Russia will abide by any peace agreement when it's broken every treaty, agreement, promise it's every made?

By giving Ukraine what they wanted which is effective NATO lite membership for the majority of the land they control. And now that Russia has seen we have the appetite to help will most definitely think twice.

And I doubt most Russians think they should not exist in a genocidal way. Russian literature and lots of their Orthodox religion has huge links to Ukraine...
 
Russia has put itself in a ridiculous and stupid position. They are burning through their future and with every day of attrition risk their future demographic pyramid which is already obliterated with the highest rates in the world of abortion, HIV, suicides, substance abuse and all the other good stuff. The idea they are happy to just keep sustaining losses I think is crazy, yet under the current circumstances is all they have. They are already pariahs in the world, relegated to trading with people using them for convenience and their own positions, they have no access to SWIFT network, debt raising and monetary control is going to get significantly more difficult and will lead them to suffering increasingly bullish China and India in negotiations. Offering a stalemate solution of some part of Ukraine and possibly a bespoke NATO deal (not members so no NATO missles on site, but promise of article 5 response if attacked) could possibly provide a means to everyone going home.

But again it's easy for all of us to just say "fight fight fight" when it's not us that dies (we just suffer tailrisk.....can't even call it black swan event because we know its possible....of nuclear escalation albeit improbable). In the worst case scenario Russia can grind this war out for 2 more years based on military analysis. 2 years more of devastation where possibly Ukraine moral collapses, there is an unexpected rout and suddenly they take all of Ukraine? Or two more years with chance of victory? Again if the path for victory is not there, what is there?

The population might say enough eventually, where that line is I don't know, it doesn't look like they are going to stand against the Russian regime any time soon and the Russian government/Putin has shown they are prepared to expend almost any amount of Russian lives and future.

Don't forget that in the early days of the war it came to light the Russian security services had been buying up houses in Kyiv in the weeks before, they had plans for taking over properties for their and their families use after victory and planning on which restaurants to use for victory celebrations they seemed to think would be like 3 weeks after the invasion started. Behind the initial attack formations they were already sending supplies of crowd control, parade equipment/uniforms, etc. Russia wasn't intending to just take a piece of Ukraine and they won't settle for that even now.

By giving Ukraine what they wanted which is effective NATO lite membership for the majority of the land they control. And now that Russia has seen we have the appetite to help will most definitely think twice.

It sets a dangerous precedent that any land not directly part of NATO is fair game.

But I don't see them getting any form of NATO membership now or even if they push Russia out any time soon the risk of escalation is just too great - it almost certainly won't stop Russia conducting assaults across the line of control to test the waters, we aren't going to go nuclear over cross border skirmishes within Ukraine but putting NATO troops there produces a situation which could rapidly deteriorate out of control. The only way that will happen is if Russia if fully pushed back over the border and things have settled down significantly - probably when enough time has passed the political situation in Russia has changed somewhat with the older guard dying out.

Ukraine doesn't actually want NATO membership anyhow, they've only turned towards it due to Russian aggression. Some of that is for somewhat dubious reasons as their weapons industry doesn't exactly operate to the same principles as the West, etc. (some of Iranian rocket development was via Soviet plans acquired through Ukraine for example) but still. But ultimately they'd rather stand on their own two feet as much as possible preferring cooperation rather than integration with foreign military alliances.

And I doubt most Russians think they should not exist in a genocidal way. Russian literature and lots of their Orthodox religion has huge links to Ukraine...

Though there are a lot of social links, polling of the Russian public has shown only 15-20% of the Russian general public have positive sentiments towards Ukraine and nearly half depending on poll express genocidal perspectives on it. Over 80% are still in favour of the war. I don't think the Russian regime has genocidal intentions towards Ukraine, Putin's position generally has been more towards he'd rather people just left if they don't support what Russia wants in that respect, but they would suffer considerable oppression - we've seen a glimpse of that with the way they've treated families, etc. in areas they've occupied - like with Severodonetsk where around half the population was pro-Russian and decided to stay, many of whom had a big change of heart after a couple of weeks of living under Russian occupation but by that time it was too late.
 
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Probably a bit of Ukraine and Israel involved in this one, but interesting route:

5vFOB7c.png


Looks like they are flying into Lebanon or Syria, probably Syria - I wonder what goes through the pilot's minds having to take such a route.
 
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Why? It's easy for you and me and most of the people in this thread to say "oh thats crazy", come on Ukraine, send the last of your sons and fathers into a grinding war of attrition. If there is a genuine chance of Ukraine winning peace through war then fine, that is the decision of the people (well maybe no elections anymore but that's another story..) and they can do that. If however there is no path to victory, then the lunacy is sending people off to die needlessly. I'm sorry but there are very few of us here who would genuinely send our children or family off to die at the best of times, let alone in those circumstances where even the commander in chief is saying the path forward is uncertain and Zelensky and his aides (in the time article I posted a couple days ago) admitted corruption and avenues to win.

It's a terribly ****** situation and I feel tremendous compassion for the people who have had their lives destroyed because of geopolitics on both sides. I abhor this waste of life unreservedly. But there has to be a reality that America (and to a far lesser extent Europe who I feel is more genuine) is quite happy to have given Russia an almighty bloody nose (and frankly with their demographic problems even pre war will struggle to ever recover from) at zero expense to themselves without actually caring about the people in question. It has suited and in the future will really suit them. We put up with endless years of whining at them losing a few people in Iraq and yet we're facing 500,000+ dead Ukrainian and Russian people and I really think most people would think they particularly care.

And yet on the converse side, if they DO go all in with all support, then they run the tightrope of a serious escalation and realistic and fair accusations of a proxy war.....and no one wants or realistically is going to risk that hence the nibbling of redlines not a bold "here's all the super weapons go give the ruskies a pasting).




I disgree and sorry for hurting your feelings, you seem quite direct with words before so I didn't feel the need to sugar coat especially...

Russia has put itself in a ridiculous and stupid position. They are burning through their future and with every day of attrition risk their future demographic pyramid which is already obliterated with the highest rates in the world of abortion, HIV, suicides, substance abuse and all the other good stuff. The idea they are happy to just keep sustaining losses I think is crazy, yet under the current circumstances is all they have. They are already pariahs in the world, relegated to trading with people using them for convenience and their own positions, they have no access to SWIFT network, debt raising and monetary control is going to get significantly more difficult and will lead them to suffering increasingly bullish China and India in negotiations. Offering a stalemate solution of some part of Ukraine and possibly a bespoke NATO deal (not members so no NATO missles on site, but promise of article 5 response if attacked) could possibly provide a means to everyone going home.

But again it's easy for all of us to just say "fight fight fight" when it's not us that dies (we just suffer tailrisk.....can't even call it black swan event because we know its possible....of nuclear escalation albeit improbable). In the worst case scenario Russia can grind this war out for 2 more years based on military analysis. 2 years more of devastation where possibly Ukraine moral collapses, there is an unexpected rout and suddenly they take all of Ukraine? Or two more years with chance of victory? Again if the path for victory is not there, what is there?

It would be lunacy for Ukraine to sue for peace before the losses are close to 1-1. Currently the losses are more like 4-1 in troops, 6-1 in equipment and 9-1 in monitory value. Every day brings the Ukrainians closer to parity and weakens Heir Vladolf politically.
 
Looks like they are flying into Lebanon or Syria, probably Syria - I wonder what goes through the pilot's minds having to take such a route.
"I'm taking what route? Jesus, the only way that could get worse would be if they wanted me to take a 1970s refresh of a 1960s plane with a reputation for falling out of the sky, oh, oh no"
 
It would be lunacy for Ukraine to sue for peace before the losses are close to 1-1. Currently the losses are more like 4-1 in troops, 6-1 in equipment and 9-1 in monitory value. Every day brings the Ukrainians closer to parity and weakens Heir Vladolf politically.

We don't have accurate figures for any of this. Russia has fired something like 9 artillery shells to every 1 Ukraine has fired, historical precedent suggests it would be almost impossible for Ukraine to have sustained significantly fewer deaths than Russia. The idea of a 4:1 casualty rate for Russia:Ukraine is basically just completely implausible. It might be 1.5:1 at best, considering Ukraine has been on the offensive for months though that's likely to be generous.

This just boils down to Russia continuing to grind out a war of attrition, which ultimately they win. Eventually there will be peace talks, it's just a matter of when.
 
If it comes to that is nuclear anyway so wont make any difference. If they attack a nato state can't see it being anything less than ww3

Our tanks would still be useful to prevent that outcome if they were given to Ukraine because if the Ukrainians kill enough Russian soldiers/sailors/airmen and destroy enough of their military equipment then there will be a stalemate in Ukraine and the Kremlin won't have the appetite/military assets to do the same thing against Moldova and afterwards against a vulnerable NATO state like Lithuania. (The latter is strategically valuable as it's between Russian-ally Belarus and Russian controlled Kaliningrad on the Baltic. Russian control of Lithuania would give them a land connection to their forward military bases in Kaliningrad and simultaneously cut off Latvia and Estonia from NATO land reinforcements from Poland.)

I don't share your confidence that a Russian attack on Lithuania would immediately go nuclear. Do you think any US President is prepared to go toe-to-toe in a nuclear war with Russia just to protect an obscure little country like Lithuania? I doubt Biden has the balls to do it even though he would agree with the principle and Trump definitely would not. That scumbag would probably be congratulating Putin on his killer move!

Surely, World War 3 (in this era) would go nuclear after a significant period of military escalation. Article 5 does not actually compel other NATO members to send military or nuclear forces to help another NATO member who has been attacked. They are allowed to send help in the form of supplies and weapons. I know we would send military forces to help because that is our nature, but the Americans are a different story and they have a long history of isolationism and staying out of European wars for as long as possible.

I would expect a Russian assault on Lithuania by conventional Russian forces to be answered by retaliation by conventional NATO forces against them directly (not even against other unrelated Russian military targets initially). I cannot see NATO immediately escalating to using tactical nuclear weapons in that scenario. (This isn't the 1970s and Russia does not possess the overwhelming conventional forces in comparison to NATO that the Warsaw Pact had.) Only after the Russians have lost that initial conventional forces battle would I expect them to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. In which case, NATO would respond likewise against an identical number of Russian targets giving the Russians an opportunity to deescalate. Hopefully, even Putin would not be stupid enough to then escalate to the use of strategic nuclear weapons.

The source to this is questionable ("military source") and the story was denied; but the British Army hasn't needed the Challenger 2 so he wasn't wrong. It's useful in Ukraine because they don't have the air power the UK and NATO have. If we were to fight Russia we'd likely have air superiority and would simply destroy a T-72 with a Hellfire missile fired from an Apache 5 miles away. Britain's money is better invested in our Navy and Airforce. Poland and Germany should be the backbone of a European land based Army, but realistically America is always going to do the heavy lifting anyway.

Of course, a senior member of the British Armed Forces would want to remain anonymous when whistleblowing on a sitting PM like that. It would be career suicide if he/she was identified. The story was hardly going to be acknowledged by the Johnson government. He lied his socks off all the time!

We used Challenger 2s in the 2003 Iraq war and we used Challenger 1s in the 1990 Iraq war. If we got dragged into a war against Iran (due to their illegal nuclear weapons development program) by the USA and Israel then we might need MBTs again. How can you be 100% certain we would have air superiority in a European war against Russia? Spending on the British Armed Forces has been slashed over the last 13 years, whereas the Russians are moving to a wartime mindset with much larger expenditure on arms than previously.

Those "MAGA nutters" quite like the UK, I don't think they'd sit back and watch Europe get conquered either.

Really?

The 18 House Republicans who voted against a resolution to support Finland, Sweden joining NATO


...Massie said on Twitter on Monday following the vote that “America can’t afford to subsidize socialist Europe’s defense, nor should we. Tonight, I voted against the House Resolution urging NATO’s expansion into Sweden and Finland.”

...

Also in April, 10 GOP House members — including Massie, Greene, Biggs, Bishop, Davidson, Gaetz and Norman — voted against the Ukraine lend-lease bill, which sought to make it easier for the U.S. to send military assistance to Ukraine during Russia’s invasion.

These 18 House Republicans have publicly stated that Donald Trump won the 2020 Presidential election and is absolutely not guilty of trying to overturn the peaceful exchange of power on January 6th 2021. Some of them believe in preposterous right-wing conspiracy theories like QAnon (Trump is fighting a ruling class of satanic paedophiles), for example: Marjorie Taylor Greene. They don't want a national gun registration database system in the USA (even if only to stop certified insane people/convicted felons from obtaining weapons).

Furthermore, they only approve of abortion if the pregnancy was the result of a 'genuine rape'. They don't believe that man-made global warming exists. Many of them reject Darwinian Evolution and believe in Creationism or "Intelligent Design" (as they prefer to call it). Most of them want full US military support for Israel, but not out of altruism towards the Jewish people, but ludicrously, because they believe the prophecy that Israel must be fully reestablished and then destroyed in order for the second coming of Jesus Christ to occur (Judgement Day). All that seems pretty nutty to me!
 
We don't have accurate figures for any of this. Russia has fired something like 9 artillery shells to every 1 Ukraine has fired, historical precedent suggests it would be almost impossible for Ukraine to have sustained significantly fewer deaths than Russia. The idea of a 4:1 casualty rate for Russia:Ukraine is basically just completely implausible. It might be 1.5:1 at best, considering Ukraine has been on the offensive for months though that's likely to be generous.

This just boils down to Russia continuing to grind out a war of attrition, which ultimately they win. Eventually there will be peace talks, it's just a matter of when.

Closest to accurate figures we have so far, and I'd caution these are likely minimums seem to be ~70K dead for Ukraine and 120K for Russia. Data mining of things like inheritances tends to back it up. (EDIT: I'd also say with the attitudes towards it in Russia and accountability in general those figures are likely on the low side for Russia but fairly accurate for Ukraine who tend to keep tabs on a lot of this stuff more like we would in the West).

I can't see there being peace talks any time remotely soon, Russia has made it plain they aren't going to stop even if they have to sustain WW2 level causalities - they are exceedingly unlikely to entail that just for a bit of Ukraine, at best they'd use it to enable a pause while they rebuild to go again. I'm sorry but after everything we've seen so far it is pretty much lunacy to think in any other terms.
 
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We used Challenger 2s in the 2003 Iraq war and we used Challenger 1s in the 1990 Iraq war. If we got dragged into a war against Iran (due to their illegal nuclear weapons development program) by the USA and Israel then we might need MBTs again. How can you be 100% certain we would have air superiority in a European war against Russia? Spending on the British Armed Forces has been slashed over the last 13 years, whereas the Russians are moving to a wartime mindset with much larger expenditure on arms than previously.

I think one of the dangers is, a significant ground force may be required, hopefully not, in the longer run with this situation for its deterrent value, the more you rely on a nuclear capability as a deterrent alone the more chance is you end up having to use it :s

Being able to gain air superiority in an actual fight doesn't quite have the same deterrent value for various reasons.
 
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We don't have accurate figures for any of this. Russia has fired something like 9 artillery shells to every 1 Ukraine has fired, historical precedent suggests it would be almost impossible for Ukraine to have sustained significantly fewer deaths than Russia. The idea of a 4:1 casualty rate for Russia:Ukraine is basically just completely implausible. It might be 1.5:1 at best, considering Ukraine has been on the offensive for months though that's likely to be generous.

This just boils down to Russia continuing to grind out a war of attrition, which ultimately they win. Eventually there will be peace talks, it's just a matter of when.

We have accurate enough figures. The Ukrainians haven’t been on a sustained offensive operations for months, but rather probing attacks exploiting weaknesses.

The Russian artillery accuracy and military performance in general has been pretty shambolic.

It’s boils down to if the Ukrainians are prepared to accept servitude to Vladolf.
 
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Closest to accurate figures we have so far, and I'd caution these are likely minimums seem to be ~70K dead for Ukraine and 120K for Russia. Data mining of things like inheritances tends to back it up.

I can't see there being peace talks any time remotely soon, Russia has made it plain they aren't going to stop even if they have to sustain WW2 level causalities - they are exceedingly unlikely to entail that just for a bit of Ukraine, at best they'd use it to enable a pause while they rebuild to go again. I'm sorry but after everything we've seen so far it is pretty much lunacy to think in any other terms.

I agree, Russia isn't going to stop. They are going to dig in and soak up the pain, in the hope their opponents get tired of hitting them. Not the best strategy, but that's what they're going with.

However, I think they'd be happy holding what they have. They control the Azov bank and have a land bridge to Crimea. They control Ukraine's largest nuclear facility. They now have another winter to dig in and rebuild.

That can be presented as a win (I know...) for them.
 
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I agree, Russia isn't going to stop. They are going to dig in and soak up the pain, in the hope their opponents get tired of hitting them. Not the best strategy, but that's what they're going with.

However, I think they'd be happy holding what they have. They control the Azov bank and have a land bridge to Crimea. They control Ukraine's largest nuclear facility. They now have another winter to dig in and rebuild.

That can be presented as a win (I know...) for them.

So far Putin hasn't shown any indication he'll settle for a "win" of that nature, obviously doesn't preclude the possibility that the situation backs him into having to accept such a "win" but as things stand that is very much up in the air. I certainly don't see it as something we can depend on.

The wildcard really is how long the Russian people will accept this situation.
 
So far Putin hasn't shown any indication he'll settle for a "win" of that nature, obviously doesn't preclude the possibility that the situation backs him into having to accept such a "win" but as things stand that is very much up in the air. I certainly don't see it as something we can depend on.

The wildcard really is how long the Russian people will accept this situation.

Circumstances limit Putin's choices at the moment. Their chance of taking further ground is pretty much nil.

I think he won't offer a truce, but would take one. "magnanimously accept this offer to reduce loss of life". Yeah, I'm a cynic.

Six of one etc. The wildcard is US politicians being short-sighted fools.
 
Circumstances limit Putin's choices at the moment. Their chance of taking further ground is pretty much nil.

I think he won't offer a truce, but would take one. "magnanimously accept this offer to reduce loss of life". Yeah, I'm a cynic.

Six of one etc. The wildcard is US politicians being short-sighted fools.

Putin is turning Russia towards extremist nations with little to offer other than isolation. The Russian population will pay a huge price for Vladolf delusions.
 
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