Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Efour said:
Belittle it? I think its bloody heroic. No way id be doing it. Somone took this weird heroic angle from me saying how funny it is mercenaries from 2 different cultures could meet on the battlefield.

This is how you spend your xmas? lol

happy boxing day... now.
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I think in these situations it’s not really a choice. Aside from the nuclear threat if Russia was to try and push through into Europe then there will be many people fighting trench to trench who never imagined fighting in a war.

It just shows how brainwashed they are that they would volunteer for it.
 
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Tuppy_Glossop said:
Push through to Europe... uhm
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They are thinking about it
news.yahoo.com

Bild: Russia may attempt to attack Europe next winter, European intelligence source says

European intelligence suggests that Russia may launch an attack on Europe during the winter of 2024-2025 if the United States finds itself "without a leader" following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the German tabloid Bild reported on Dec. 23, citing an anonymous European intelligence source.
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com

Poland think 3 years before Russia attack a bordering European NATO country and Germany think 5-10 years
news.err.ee

Polish security chief: NATO Eastern Flank states have 3 years to prepare for Russia attack

Estonia and other nations which make up NATO's Eastern Flank, along with the alliance as a whole, have a three-year window in which to avoid war with Russia, according to the head of Poland's National Security Bureau (BBN). Other expert estimates from European NATO member states put the...
news.err.ee news.err.ee
 
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Tuppy_Glossop said:
Push through to Europe... uhm
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Delta0 was putting it in a mostly theoretical context with a little bit of a serious side but I've seen a few discussions about this over the last few days and some quite polarised opinions, some quite detached from reality on both sides of the argument.

I don't personally believe Putin set out with any goals of a greater conquest of Europe, or even considered it beyond maybe a bit of day dreaming. But I think people need to recognise at the same time that we mean nothing to Putin/Russian regime and Putin/Russian regime will keep pushing where they sense weakness/opportunity - it won't end at Ukraine if things have/had gone Putin's way. Personally I suspect the reality would be more like a return to the worst of the cold war but there is potential for escalation there that the nuclear deterrent might not be enough to prevent peripheral conflict even if it would largely put a lid on anything more major.

Russia has put way too much effort in recent years into planning ahead, attempting to get people sympathetic to or in their pocket in the political and military apparatus of many European countries along with other social manipulations, carried out a certain amount of espionage and even sabotage, have prepared the groundwork for sabotage against infrastructure in Europe especially pipelines and cables, etc. including having various covert ships operating around the Baltics, North Sea and Atlantic especially just off the UK. Have established "secret" bases in various strategic places especially dotted around the Baltic region, have serious plans for Gotland and so on and on - I don't think it signals any kind of imminent military action against Europe but it is done with intent, there is definitely intention there of increasingly carrying out hybrid warfare and attempts to be disruptive within Europe with the hopes of capitalising opportunistically on situations in the future - I highly suspect if they succeed(ed) in sewing chaos in eastern Europe they'd hope to capitalise on it with even maybe more direct action in the Baltics in the hope Europe was too distracted/it would be too low a priority to do much until it was too late.
 
I think one thing Russia may try to test is the idea that nukes will be only used to defend nuclear countries rather than NATO. They will definitely try to politically disrupt things in Europe to try and turn the countries against EU and NATO as a minimum. To attack a country he would have to try to create a rising within the country itself or provoke an attack they will respond to. It opens the door to non-MAD warfare scenarios.
 
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And even more joyful news - it appears Ukraine has hit a Russian landing/supply ship while it was in port. There are videos on Twitter of a huge explosion. Ukraine says the ship has arrived in port with ammunition and drones from Iran. And this port is in Crimea, close to the bridge. East of Sevastopol that the Russian ships fled from.













 
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Sankari said:
Astonishing mobilisation by Ukraine, but it will mean little without air superiority and longer range weapons. I fear this is just feeding the meat grinder.
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The crunch really is artillery capabilities and supplies, certain types of vehicles for mobility/protection, medium range air defences and mine clearing and similar. Ukraine actually has fairly substantial stocks of small arms and ammo for them - but that won't help if Russia is able to bring aircraft and heavy armour to a fight and/or if Ukraine is trying to push on the offensive against dug in forces, with prepared minefields and obstacles, with unsuppressed artillery support, etc. especially if Russia manages to ramp up artillery supplies again.
 
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Yep its the meat grinder long game and with all the will in the world Ukraine will run out of fighters before Russia in that scenario.
So if this wars gonna end it ends next year (or 2)....
If that End comes from a ramp up in supplied technological Arms and munitions.. ..I think Ukraine will be able to tread water, honestly dont think its taking back the eastern annexed areas anytime soon.
If the end comes from The USA stopping aid, then others following suit (unlikely) then all Russia has to do is keep doing what its doing now and in a year or 2 it gets what it wants.
Of course Ukraine will fight. They face annihilation its the only thing to do.


I also think Putin will be dead in ten (hopefully less) years and in 2024 i optimistically think their will be some form of social uprising in Russia.
If the wrong people are in charge of the Whitehouse in 2024 i think China will also do what China's gonna do because they could use a good war to rebalance their now stagnating economy.....
 
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Efour said:
Yep its the meat grinder long game and with all the will in the world Ukraine will run out of fighters before Russia in that scenario.
So if this wars gonna end it ends next year (or 2)....
If that End comes from a ramp up in supplied technological Arms and munitions.. ..I think Ukraine will be able to tread water, honestly dont think its taking back the eastern annexed areas anytime soon.
If the end comes from The USA stopping aid, then others following suit (unlikely) then all Russia has to do is keep doing what its doing now and in a year or 2 it gets what it wants.
Of course Ukraine will fight. They face annihilation its the only thing to do.
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Not really and not with the current tactics being employed by the Russians.

The days of mass waves of men working are long gone, it only worked against the Germans due to restraints on their weapon production caused by the British naval blockade and the war on the western front.

From the videos posted online most of the Russian military attacks have been thawted by javelin missiles or fpv drones that tank out a couple of tanks/ifv which cause them to retreat leaving the infantry unsupported to be taken out by drone dropped munitions.


I think next year we will see a uptake in the number of beyond the horizon fpv drone attacks on artillery/ staging posts along with shadid clone attacks to soak up and distract Russian air defence.

Plush I feel that we will hear there’s been another donations of patriot systems to Ukraine.

Looks like Russia is burning through its stored stockpiles of equipment, either to cover losses or to equip new regiments

 

There's speculation that F-16's have already been used and we're behind the downing of the 2 aircraft on Christmas Day (based on where the planes were shot down, ranges involved and how difficult it would have been to have moved a whole patriot battery to that sector).
 
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Grim5 said:
And even more joyful news - it appears Ukraine has hit a Russian landing/supply ship while it was in port. There are videos on Twitter of a huge explosion. Ukraine says the ship has arrived in port with ammunition and drones from Iran. And this port is in Crimea, close to the bridge. East of Sevastopol that the Russian ships fled from.

Grim5 said:











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Just to note the Novacherassk was one of the ships that was damaged from a Tochka missile strike in Berdiansk March last year.
 
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