Soldato
The challenge is that no warring nation can pass ships into or out of the Black Sea. That’s a significant limitation for Russia if they want to expand beyond Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
Ships with a home port on the Black Sea have the right to return to base unfettered by Turkey, even during a war. Whether or not Russia can transfer ships from, say, the Northern Fleet to the Black Sea fleet and still enjoy this privilege is beyond my ken.
Soldato
They need to be able to leave as well. Also if they are at war with NATO then they will be very vulnerable going through the straight.
pretty sure that only applies to civilian ships, any warships turkey can block if the country in question is in a conflict. If Russia could move warships into the black sea to replace losses they already would have done so
Soldato
I think that is only if Turkey are themselves at war or at risk of war. Need to check, it must be eight years since I read up on it.
Edit: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/LON/Volume 173/v173.pdf pp 221 - 225 (note French and English pages interleaved but with same page numbers)
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Caporegime
Looks like Belgorod is getting some more attention.
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Soldato
Ha. I’m sure Russians would welcome them with open arms.
Your correct about ships returning to a home port, im guessing that turkey would reject passage to a Russian warship thats being transferred from another fleet,
Closing the strait off to Russia does not violate the 1936 Montreux Convention.
The treaty covers the various straits that connect the Mediterranean Sea with the Black Sea and has been ratified by the League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations. The treaty has remained unchanged since it has been ratified.
Here’s how the treaty works: Turkey guarantees freedom of passage for all civilian and commercial vessels during peacetime.
Military ships can also pass through, under certain conditions, and only if advance warning is given.
According to Article 19, when there’s a war that doesn’t involve Turkey, warships from the warring states can’t use the straits — unless they’re returning to home bases in the Black Sea.
Turkey has the discretion to close the strait to warships of all nations party to a conflict. It may also do so if it fears an “imminent danger of war.”
Soldato
I believe Turkey hasn't let any warships in or out since this started. They are being very strict on this one to avoid any accusations of favouritism. This also extends to the three minesweepers the UK sold to Ukraine recently.
Soldato
Reuters article from a few days after Russia's Feb 2022 attack:
Balancing its Western commitments and close ties to Moscow, Ankara has in recent days called the Russian attack unacceptable but until Sunday had not described the situation in Ukraine as a war.
The rhetorical shift allows Turkey to enact the articles of the 1936 Montreux Convention that permits it to limit naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime, or if threatened.
Yet Cavusoglu reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base.
"There should not be any abuse of this exemption. Ships that declare returning to their bases and passing through the straits should not be involved in the war," Cavusoglu said.
Balancing its Western commitments and close ties to Moscow, Ankara has in recent days called the Russian attack unacceptable but until Sunday had not described the situation in Ukraine as a war.
The rhetorical shift allows Turkey to enact the articles of the 1936 Montreux Convention that permits it to limit naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime, or if threatened.
Yet Cavusoglu reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base.
"There should not be any abuse of this exemption. Ships that declare returning to their bases and passing through the straits should not be involved in the war," Cavusoglu said.
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There's a lot Russia could do, think of everyone who dislikes the West, NATO plus our allies and what Russia could provide to them in the future, even in terms of just knowledge.
Russia's Navy isn't small, do you think their entire Navy was in the Black Sea? They still have one of the largest Navies in the world, I'd guess 3rd behind the US and China. They have a lot of surface ships and submarines. I'm not being funny, but if you don't know this, should you be commenting on a war?
List of active Russian Navy ships - Wikipedia
I just don't think you know what you're talking about, like a lot of people in here.
Caporegime
Rights of transit do not apply to either vessels of war or civilian transit where Turkey is a belligerent in the war involving the country (article 20 and article 5, respectively).
If Russia went to war, most likely the straight would be immediately closed to Russia.
If Putin did this the US Navy would 100% defend the Falklands, it wouldn't be a case of needing to trigger article 5, it would be a case of the US defending their ally. This would be an incredibly stupid move and would result in Russia losing every ship they sent down there. There's no chance they'd take on the Royal Navy and US Navy.
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And how many Russian ships have passed through the Bosphorus since the war began, Russia made sure they all of the Black Sea fleet was in the Black Sea (and a few others on “exercise”) before the war started, knowing that the Bosphorus would be closed to them as soon as they attacked Ukraine.
Six Russian Warships Sailing From Mediterranean To Black Sea For Drills
Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Ukraine.
www.rferl.org
Soldato
There’s no benefit to having the Falklands. Ukraine is about control of resources and food. A tiny bit of oil is not going to be of interest.
Soldato
Not sure why you are asking me this. I only wanted to point out to delta0 that it isn't as simple as he made out in post #80841And how many Russian ships have passed through the Bosphorus since the war began, Russia made sure they all of the Black Sea fleet was in the Black Sea (and a few others on “exercise”) before the war started, knowing that the Bosphorus would be closed to them as soon as they attacked Ukraine.
Six Russian Warships Sailing From Mediterranean To Black Sea For Drills
Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Ukraine.
Soldato
It appears Russia has not moved ships through since the war started. The Montreux convention wouldn’t allow any ships to be used for the war even if they were going to a port in the Black Sea. The fleet is basically stuck in there until the war is over. If the war expands then unless Russia takes the areas around the straight they still can’t move the ships.
Soldato
Ukraine isn't in NATO, although they did have a treaty with the US and UK that we would have their back. Sadly that wasn't worth the paper it was written on
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