Ships with a home port on the Black Sea have the right to return to base unfettered by Turkey, even during a war. Whether or not Russia can transfer ships from, say, the Northern Fleet to the Black Sea fleet and still enjoy this privilege is beyond my ken.The challenge is that no warring nation can pass ships into or out of the Black Sea. That’s a significant limitation for Russia if they want to expand beyond Ukraine.
They need to be able to leave as well. Also if they are at war with NATO then they will be very vulnerable going through the straight.Ships with a home port on the Black Sea have the right to return to base unfettered by Turkey, even during a war. Whether or not Russia can transfer ships from, say, the Northern Fleet to the Black Sea fleet and still enjoy this privilege is beyond my ken.
pretty sure that only applies to civilian ships, any warships turkey can block if the country in question is in a conflict. If Russia could move warships into the black sea to replace losses they already would have done soShips with a home port on the Black Sea have the right to return to base unfettered by Turkey, even during a war. Whether or not Russia can transfer ships from, say, the Northern Fleet to the Black Sea fleet and still enjoy this privilege is beyond my ken.
I think that is only if Turkey are themselves at war or at risk of war. Need to check, it must be eight years since I read up on it.pretty sure that only applies to civilian ships, any warships turkey can block if the country in question is in a conflict. If Russia could move warships into the black sea to replace losses they already would have done so
Russians recruiting in Africa
On the news it says they are running classes in Africa to teach the Russian language and then offering Russian citizenship afterwards to anyone who agrees to fight for Russia
Your correct about ships returning to a home port, im guessing that turkey would reject passage to a Russian warship thats being transferred from another fleet,I think that is only if Turkey are themselves at war or at risk of war. Need to check, it must be eight years since I read up on it.
Not sure (given the reputation of Russia arms) they want any russia arma, more likely they will look to develop the tech themselves based on shared knowledge.
Strategic consequence - you mean russia threatening outside of the Ukrainian war? Possibly UK?
All countries have hands they’ve not played yet. Sorry but the aggressive rhetoric seems to be a scare tactic
The engagement of other countries directly undoes the political war and also opens up a second front which has a completely different landscape - russia would lose its small remaining navy, needing to build more and find yet more resources lost thay require funding..
If you’re meaning using Chinese naval hardware using African ports as bases? I think that boat has sailed - china will not want the politixal fallout nor expose the literal cracks in their hardware (a number if built carriers have cracks in their decks due to bad manufacturing that made the unusable).
Russia’s targets are the easy soft undersea or offshore assests - attacks would end up the loss of those vessels so instead a land based war of attrition enables BRICS support without bringing into war. If china get too involved it’s likely to see trade reduction resulting in china going deeper into the economic red. Internal political impact on Xi will limit.
10-30 years and Putin will have died. The legacy will be a new generation of beainwashed russians ans politics. The duma cartel leadership will also have changed, and I suspect at that point they will have the financial fallout of Putin’s actions.
War is expensive and the spoils in ROI take years if jot lifetimes to recoup.
So in short I see russia only wanting to engage small conflicts and switching to economic and political war to separate nations, isolate in a form of silk road initiative.
In your post you simply remain vague and ambiguous - hinting threats. It is more likely that putin relies on sympathy to enable coercion of the political landscape and in the UK Brexit to divide a response.
Ships with a home port on the Black Sea have the right to return to base unfettered by Turkey, even during a war. Whether or not Russia can transfer ships from, say, the Northern Fleet to the Black Sea fleet and still enjoy this privilege is beyond my ken.
NATO article five cannot be triggered in response to an attack on a warship so far from it's home waters.
Article 5 covers only member states' territories in Europe, North America, Turkey, and islands in the Atlantic north of the Tropic of Cancer. The last part is there to specify that that attacks on islands such as Hawaii and the Falklands are not covered by article five.
Actually, on the above points (and I hope I don't accidentally give any bots a good idea to take back to their master here) if Putin really wanted to strike back at the UK, all he needs to do is send a large group of warships down to Argentina and ask their new far right government if they would like the British military removed form the Falklands. Luckily I think he's too dumb to think of something that outside the box.
And how many Russian ships have passed through the Bosphorus since the war began, Russia made sure they all of the Black Sea fleet was in the Black Sea (and a few others on “exercise”) before the war started, knowing that the Bosphorus would be closed to them as soon as they attacked Ukraine.Reuters article from a few days after Russia's Feb 2022 attack:
Balancing its Western commitments and close ties to Moscow, Ankara has in recent days called the Russian attack unacceptable but until Sunday had not described the situation in Ukraine as a war.
The rhetorical shift allows Turkey to enact the articles of the 1936 Montreux Convention that permits it to limit naval transit of its Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits during wartime, or if threatened.
Yet Cavusoglu reiterated that Turkey cannot block all Russian warships accessing the Black Sea due to a clause in the pact exempting those returning to their registered base.
"There should not be any abuse of this exemption. Ships that declare returning to their bases and passing through the straits should not be involved in the war," Cavusoglu said.
Not sure why you are asking me this. I only wanted to point out to delta0 that it isn't as simple as he made out in post #80841And how many Russian ships have passed through the Bosphorus since the war began, Russia made sure they all of the Black Sea fleet was in the Black Sea (and a few others on “exercise”) before the war started, knowing that the Bosphorus would be closed to them as soon as they attacked Ukraine.
Six Russian Warships Sailing From Mediterranean To Black Sea For Drills
Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Ukraine.www.rferl.org
It appears Russia has not moved ships through since the war started. The Montreux convention wouldn’t allow any ships to be used for the war even if they were going to a port in the Black Sea. The fleet is basically stuck in there until the war is over. If the war expands then unless Russia takes the areas around the straight they still can’t move the ships.Not sure why you are asking me this. I only wanted to point out to delta0 that it isn't as simple as he made out in post #80841
A lot of people didn't think he would be silly enough to invade Ukraine yet here we are. At this point I wouldn't put anything past him.
I swear if Putin never went into politics he could had a good career are poker player.
Sorry I must have misunderstood what you were saying, I took your post as you were saying, all Russia had to do to transfer a ship from another fleet to the Black Sea was say “it’s returning to made up home port”Not sure why you are asking me this. I only wanted to point out to delta0 that it isn't as simple as he made out in post #80841
There’s no benefit to having the Falklands. Ukraine is about control of resources and food. A tiny bit of oil is not going to be of interest.