Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Embezzling money for ammo has got to carry a worse penalty than ten years?

Not the first shipment that's disappeared into the ether but huge sums of money been paid.

Corruption gonna corrupt.... Guess its just part of the old soviet way of things. few more generations to breed it out..
 
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delta0 said:
Russia’s next step?
youtu.be

RUSSIA's 9 Step Plan for World War 3 as Plans to Invade Poland Could Cause Full Scale War with NATO

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So after losing (so far), 300k troops, 6000 tanks, lots of ships and over 300 aircraft to (and lets be blunt here) left over Soviet equipment/NATO surplus/some addition complex weapons mixed with some Ukrainian balls of steel, by 2025 Russia is going to be ready to invade Poland :confused:

I dont think Russian plan are based in reality.
 
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They still have a lot of men and equipment left as the fight in Ukraine isn't using "all" of Russia's military, only about 1/3 of it on average (some sections is about 1/2), so there's a respectable amount left even if the quality of most of it is fairly poor. Also, it's lost about 3000 tanks not 6000, and by best estimates that 3000 is only about 1/2 of the full amount with 100-125 new tanks being made per year, not enough to replace loses but its still more than most NATO nations are building.
 
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XPE said:
So after losing (so far), 300k troops, 6000 tanks, lots of ships and over 300 aircraft to (and lets be blunt here) left over Soviet equipment/NATO surplus/some addition complex weapons mixed with some Ukrainian balls of steel, by 2025 Russia is going to be ready to invade Poland :confused:

I dont think Russian plan are based in reality.
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It’s a 60 mile corridor so nothing like the size of Ukraine. However tackling Poland let alone NATO during this could be tricky. There can always be more to this than initially presented as what has been presented is very high level.
 
ianh said:
They still have a lot of men and equipment left as the fight in Ukraine isn't using "all" of Russia's military, only about 1/3 of it on average (some sections is about 1/2), so there's a respectable amount left even if the quality of most of it is fairly poor. Also, it's lost about 3000 tanks not 6000, and by best estimates that 3000 is only about 1/2 of the full amount with 100-125 new tanks being made per year, not enough to replace loses but its still more than most NATO nations are building.
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What is left is a defensive force for Russia, Putin isn't going to utilise that unless his back is to the wall, and that only includes a few 100 good quality tanks with little reserve depth, etc.

They definitely have the potential to re-arm at a greater rate than many allow for though - at this point the economy situation doesn't unduly hamper that in a war time scenario and things like labour laws or health and safety will go out the window far sooner than in the West.
 
Video of another failed Russian armoured assault, burning ruskie tanks/ifv everywhere, looks to be around 20 minimum.

Mentality of the orca to watch the previous waves cut down then go and do the same in this day and age is boggling.
 
ianh said:
They still have a lot of men and equipment left as the fight in Ukraine isn't using "all" of Russia's military, only about 1/3 of it on average (some sections is about 1/2), so there's a respectable amount left even if the quality of most of it is fairly poor. Also, it's lost about 3000 tanks not 6000, and by best estimates that 3000 is only about 1/2 of the full amount with 100-125 new tanks being made per year, not enough to replace loses but its still more than most NATO nations are building.
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What are you on about? They're no doubt much weaker now then when they started the conflict in Ukraine. They've lost a lot of hardware. They've lost Wagner. They've lost their elite forces. They're not holding anything back - why would they. They've been shown for what they are... A massive army that has been stripped from the inside by corruption and poor planning. They aren't attacking anyone for the next decade and all the noise coming from army personnel are budget rattling.
 
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Goksly said:
What are you on about?
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I'm giving factual information.

Goksly said:
They're no doubt much weaker now then when they started the conflict in Ukraine. They've lost a lot of hardware. They've lost Wagner. They've lost their elite forces.
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Yeap, I 100% agree with that.

Goksly said:
They're not holding anything back - why would they
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Russia has only deployed about 1/3 of its total military strength to Ukraine with some sections providing about 1/2 their strength so far, that is a fact.

Before the war Russia had 1m+ soldiers in the Army, 2m+ in reserves, 200k+ in the Air Force & 160k+ in the Navy and it has not deployed those sorts of numbers to Ukraine, where it only had roughly 150k to 200k soldiers on the border during the invasion, plus some aviation and navy assets. However, Russia since 2022 when the loses started to rack up it has increased its Army numbers by around 170k twice a year to cover those combat loses.

Whilst you may believe its correct to say "its not holding anything back" in reality it actually is holding a lot of manpower and equipment back, because Russia still has borders with various NATO countries, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and North Korea which it uses a large portion of its Army/Air Force/Navy to "defend" despite some of them currently being allies (here's an interactive map showing Russian commands with units on these borders) so about 1/2 to 2/3's of its total available forces aren't being used currently in Ukraine and if they were, then about 3m Russian soldiers and reserves would be there right now. What we're actually seeing is about 200k-300k being used who are being continually replaced by fresh conscripts, leaving the bulk of the Army still around its various borders and mostly left untouched by the Ukraine war.

Goksly said:
They've been shown for what they are... A massive army that has been stripped from the inside by corruption and poor planning.
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Yeap, I 100% agree with that.

Goksly said:
They aren't attacking anyone for the next decade and all the noise coming from army personnel are budget rattling.
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I never said they would be.
 
ianh said:
Before the war Russia had 1m+ soldiers in the Army
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I agree with everything else you said but thought it worth pointing out that Putin's pre-war claim of a million strong army was actually a ~900,000 strong army consisting of 260k conscripts, 410k soldiers, and the rest officers, cadets, engineers, logsitics, etc.

That 1:2 conscript to career soldier ratio was true across the board including Spetznas.
 
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in the US they use a 1:10 ratio, so if they say they have a 1 million army, only 100k are front line soldiers and the other 900k work as support

In the world wars it was about a 1:3 ratio for all sides, so 1 million army would have 330k front line soldiers


Now you may be wondering howcome Russia has 300k soldiers dead or wounded already with a military that's officially now only around 1.3 million in size. And that's because Russia still operates with a ratio around the same level of the world wars, so 1.3 million army today gives them around 450k front line soldiers


But that's not necessarily a good thing for them, it means they don't have a lot of support for the front line soldiers, and that's why the Russian army is known for being **** poor at logistics
 
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ubersonic said:
I agree with everything else you said but thought it worth pointing out that Putin's pre-war claim of a million strong army was actually a ~900,000 strong army consisting of 260k conscripts, 410k soldiers, and the rest officers, cadets, engineers, logsitics, etc.

That 1:2 conscript to career soldier ratio was true across the board including Spetznas.
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Russian ground forces pre-war was approx 380K, what a lot of people seem to miss is just how much they padded out the invasion force with 2 rounds of mobilisation in the run up. Only the forces from the south were largely career soldiers, the east and north were padded out quite a bit, including at least 15K troops with as little as 3 weeks training and sent over the border with literally 3 days worth of supplies.
 
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Goksly said:
What are you on about? They're no doubt much weaker now then when they started the conflict in Ukraine. They've lost a lot of hardware. They've lost Wagner. They've lost their elite forces. They're not holding anything back - why would they. They've been shown for what they are... A massive army that has been stripped from the inside by corruption and poor planning. They aren't attacking anyone for the next decade and all the noise coming from army personnel are budget rattling.
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They've lost a lot of of their most experienced personnel, but they have been holding a certain amount back, people seem to vastly underestimate how paranoid Putin is as to the West's intentions. I don't know the exact numbers now but at the point the headlines was all about how they'd lost 90% of their Spetsnaz, etc. they'd only committed around 40-50% of the entire strength (the actual active strength not the inflated on paper strength) to Ukraine, which had been largely become casualties. They reconstituted what was left and sent some more to be used more like light mechanized infantry near Bakhmut and I've not seen any decent stats for the situation now - sadly a lot of the OSINT sources I was using in the early days of the war are now either burnt out or just amplifying/sharing stuff already on Twitter/mainstream media.

While I'd agree that they aren't attacking anyone with the shape of their armed forces right now, I don't necessarily agree they aren't attacking anyone for the next decade or more - they have the potential to re-arm relatively rapidly if they turn to it and in a situation where they have a lot less to lose (ignoring the potential for nuclear) doing so.

While a certain amount will be budget motivated, there is a lot of concerning movements going on behind the scenes which almost certainly aren't in my opinion observing 3rd hand - I'm fairly sure there is also the realisation there that the current state of things leaves us exposed and inviting trouble to a significant, avoidable, degree of risk, though not the inevitable WW3 as some are making out.

Nate75 said:
Putin setting his stall out

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There is quite a dangerous angle to that actually - Putin all "yeah Ukraine can join NATO for all I care" banking on Western bureaucracy and self-interest (e.g. Turkey) and Russian influence/infiltration (Hungary, etc.) meaning it won't actually happen for years, combine with many Western countries jumping on it thinking it will mean a quick end to the war putting pressure on Ukraine to agree to the negotiations without actually gaining the crucial benefits of the deal, meanwhile Putin gets 2-3 years breather while Ukraine still isn't in NATO/Europe before going again.
 
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alchal said:
Video of another failed Russian armoured assault, burning ruskie tanks/ifv everywhere, looks to be around 20 minimum.

Mentality of the orca to watch the previous waves cut down then go and do the same in this day and age is boggling.
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It was that mentality that pushed, arguably, the most formidable army in the world from shelling distance of Moscow all the way to Berlin in WW2.

The Russian mentality has not really changed since those times. They can take casualty numbers unimaginable to western thinking without blinking. Underestimate them at your peril.
 
esmozz said:
It was that mentality that pushed, arguably, the most formidable army in the world from shelling distance of Moscow all the way to Berlin in WW2.

The Russian mentality has not really changed since those times. They can take casualty numbers unimaginable to western thinking without blinking. Underestimate them at your peril.
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They also mass mutinied and had to exit ww1 to have a revolution, in part because conditions were so bad.

You can’t read too much into history.
 
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Stretch said:
They also mass mutinied and had to exit ww1 to have a revolution, in part because conditions were so bad.

You can’t read too much into history.
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True that.

I think the problem is, nobody really knows which way the chips are going to fall.

The saying ‘History never repeats itself but historical situations reoccur’ holds true.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
 
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