Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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The simple fact of the matter is that our current army stands at around 76,000 people. During the cold war, at it's height the British Army on the Rhine stood at 250,000 men and women, and we were also able to service commitments elsewhere in the world.

I don't doubt the capability of individual war-fighters has increased versus our likely opponents, but just based on those numbers I suspect we need to triple the size of our army (and I suspect the same is true to a lesser degree for the other armed services).

Are we actually capable of tripling our armed services? I have my doubts, at least in the timescale that may well be required. And I suspect our opponents are counting on the fact we can't.


I don't think si, with the technological landscape today you don't need cannon fodder. Investments in drones and anti-drone technology, missiles, anti-tank weapons and air superiority should be made.

Look at the kill ratio Ukraine is achieving without control of the airspace and drip-fed aging western tech. IF NATO went all in then the Russian army would collapse.


The other fact is the size of NATO army now the ex-soviet block members are present. It is also possible to train significant servicemen with 6-12 months.
 
The general argument brought around by "High Quantity & Low Quality" vs "High Quality & Low Quantity" is that, at some point days/weeks/months in the fighting, the Low Quantity that Quality started with will begin to hurt your ability to continue fighting far more as you lose more and more people/equipment in combat. Plus the simple issue that lower numbers of people/equipment can't physically be in lots of places at the same time, so you allow the enemy to stretch your forces too thinly or you condense your forces into less places allowing the enemy more room to manoeuvre against you.

The biggest issue the UK MOD (and a lot of "western" countries) has right now, is that they have virtually no "depth" to be able to accept large combat losses and replace them with an equivalent, because the mantra of "Do more with less" (driven by decades of Government spending) has left us stretched extremely thin, meaning resources (people/equipment) have to risked as little as possible by the military leadership as there's just no way to replace them once they're lost in combat (Afghan & Iraq are prime examples on a macro level) and there's the political risk that public support might drop once hundreds of dead/injured start coming home every week as expected in a peer/peer conflict, where the first 10 days will be a meat-grinder for absolutely everyone.
 
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The general argument brought around by "High Quantity & Low Quality" vs "High Quality & Low Quantity" is that, at some point days/weeks/months in the fighting, the Low Quantity that Quality started with will begin to hurt your ability to continue fighting far more as you lose more and more people/equipment in combat. Plus the simple issue that lower numbers of people/equipment can't physically be in lots of places at the same time, so you allow the enemy to stretch your forces too thinly or you condense your forces into less places allowing the enemy more room to manoeuvre against you.

The biggest issue the UK MOD (and a lot of "western" countries) has right now, is that they have virtually no "depth" to be able to accept large combat losses and replace them with an equivalent, because the mantra of "Do more with less" (driven by decades of Government spending) has left us stretched extremely thin, meaning resources (people/equipment) have to risked as little as possible by the military leadership as there's just no way to replace them once they're lost in combat (Afghan & Iraq are prime examples on a macro level) and there's the political risk that public support might drop once hundreds of dead/injured start coming home every week as expected in a peer/peer conflict, where the first 10 days will be a meat-grinder for absolutely everyone.

You then end up expending high value equipment and experienced personnel, avoidable losses, trying to hold the line while you bring (or try to bring) manufacturing online and conscription up to speed... all likely completely avoidable if you were a bit better prepared in the first place.
 
I very much support an increase in defence spending even if it means slightly higher taxes. But I would only support it if the money spent went mostly to UK companies. That way the extra taxes also get fed back into the economy.

So more UK ship building, more spend with UK arms companies etc. Inevitably some will have to be spent abroad but let's try to keep the money circulating in the UK.

Yeah, I would like to see a holistic approach where possible to any spending plans. Those in Westminster don’t fill me with the greatest to steer the country through this. We need a nation first mentality to solve this problem well.
 
Maybe. It would be a great opportunity in some ways. We could reinvigorate some long neglected parts of the UK and types of industries.

That is effectively what Biden has done with the arms to Ukraine - send them the old stuff, but reinvigorate struggling manufacturing areas of the US economy with having new replacement arms made and vehicles built. The difference is America can just print money, we can't
 
That is effectively what Biden has done with the arms to Ukraine - send them the old stuff, but reinvigorate struggling manufacturing areas of the US economy with having new replacement arms made and vehicles built. The difference is America can just print money, we can't

The difference I see, is that the US has reasonable industrial base, while ours has been badly neglected with its workforce shattered and long moved on.
 
Russia’s next step?
While no doubt Russia would try their luck to bring back the Soviet Union, they still need to win in Ukraine and that's not going to happen for a while (years), then they have to rebuild their armed forces for a proper go at a NATO nation and by then, Putin could have died, so we're not looking at this next step for at least a decade
 
I don’t understand why NATO can’t set out a plan for each of its members to maintain a minimal arms production requirement and some capacity to rapidly increase production if needed. Especially when it comes to rather basic munitions like shells and rifle ammunition.
 
While no doubt Russia would try their luck to bring back the Soviet Union, they still need to win in Ukraine and that's not going to happen for a while (years), then they have to rebuild their armed forces for a proper go at a NATO nation and by then, Putin could have died, so we're not looking at this next step for at least a decade

The point is western militaries are in such a parlous state it will also take us 10 years to prepare
 
I don’t understand why NATO can’t set out a plan for each of its members to maintain a minimal arms production requirement and some capacity to rapidly increase production if needed. Especially when it comes to rather basic munitions like shells and rifle ammunition.

NATO already does that but European countries have not been meeting the commitment, which is part of the reason Trump said he was going to withdraw US from NATO
 
I speak with a lot of guys at work, not a single person would entertain joining the armed forces. This along with the younger generation likely not even considering it.

I doubt know how the military can grow anytime soon, we have neglected it not only with manpower but respect. We are in a mess..
 
NATO already does that but European countries have not been meeting the commitment, which is part of the reason Trump said he was going to withdraw US from NATO

I meant actual state owned and run production capacity aside from meeting the defence spending requirements. For example, each member is required to produce 250 shells and 500 round per week. Hold an inventory of X amount stored at NATO standards while, also maintaining a reserve capacity to ramp production by 5x within a month.
 
I meant actual state owned and run production capacity aside from meeting the defence spending requirements. For example, each member is required to produce 250 shells and 500 round per week. Hold an inventory of X amount stored at NATO standards while, also maintaining a reserve capacity to ramp production by 5x within a month.
I believe in Europe it is mostly business that produce ammunition. Your idea is a good one, but there is a lot of money to be made in an uncompetitive market.
 
I believe in Europe it is mostly business that produce ammunition. Your idea is a good one, but there is a lot of money to be made in an uncompetitive market.
Yeah, but NATO is only 32 nations out of hundreds. The private sector still has the rest of the world to supply. If anything a move like this would put pressure on the likes of Iran and North Korean production, but the point would be to solve any possible shortage and sustaining a safe and reliable supply of basic armaments at a state controlled cost.

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NATO could also recycle the piles of Russian scrap Vladolf keeps fly tipping in Ukraine.
 
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WSJ had a short video about 155mm shell production, Europe is mostly business as mentioned above and need concrete orders before investing in increased production, 5 minutes in are the comments.
 
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