Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Rroff]

TBH a lot of weapon systems have probability to hit well beyond the stated max range, especially if you don't have to worry about friendly or civilian aircraft and just "yeet" them into the area you suspect the enemy to be operating and let the seeker do the work.

It might even be as simple as some tuned up ASRAAMs - the stated ranges are the minimum and the platform it is based on is capable of ranges in excess of 160km.

 

[Jokester]

This has me very intrigued. Is it possible we are seeing a weapon system that we are not tracking/aware of in use here? Is there anything relatively "mobile" (not talking shoot and scoot) that could have been supplied/homegrown/legacy? One that can potentially strike at ranges 180km+
It seems so incredibly risky, borderline reckless to be using a Patriot system on the front line in an almost offensive role, albeit incredibly effective if that is indeed the case.

I’ve seen reports suggesting Ukraine are moving a Patriot up to the front recently for this very tactic, shoot and scoot similar to Himars.

 

[Freddie1980]

Last year there was dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region which Russia was providing security for, when Azerbaijan invaded Russia 'peacekeepers' (an oxymoron if there ever was one) did absolutely nothing. Well now the Armenian Prime Minister has told Russia to go and do one and left the 'Collective Security Treaty Organisation' which is basically Russia's answer to NATO.

Putin loses grip on member of his military alliance

Armenia has frozen its participation in the CSTO, PM Nikol Pashinyan said.

www.politico.eu

 

[ianh]

Now, this is just my own little post-pub "Tom Clancy-esque" mental exercise regarding these recent A-50 shoot downs and the spate of other "longer than usual" ranged attack on SU-34/35 etc and seen as though everyone else is having a wild guess I'll have a go too. Again, just some wild drunken theories here not to be taken seriously, unless its later found out to be true in which case "High Five!" -

The US does have a very potent Surface to Air missile with the range required and the capability to hit, not just large slow moving aircraft at long range (something considered easy), but also hit small agile fighters filled with EW too at those same longer than expected ranges (something much harder to do) and last year the US Navy/Army have both tested this firing this missile from what looks like an over sized ISO container looking box fitted on a truck. This missile can be guided into the general area by the current Patriot system in Track Whilst Scan mode so any Russians wouldn't know they're being tracked and under attack until the missile's own radar goes active about 30 seconds before impact.

Ladies and Gents I present the upto 290 mile ranged SM-6 using the Mk70 Launcher as tested in Oct '23 -

Which is just as likely as the thoughts that Ukraine is already secretly using F-16's. I do however like Rroff's idea but with a simple tweak - the IR Guided Short Ranged ASRAAM can be fitted onto the back of a flatbed truck, which Ukraine already has, and these have a 25km range, so if you can smuggle in one of these systems into Russia and, as we already know the "usual" A-50 orbit area, drive one of these under it, that'd be pretty cool.

Regarding the video above of flares being fired by the aircraft and a missile exploding early, both chaff and flares would be fired at the same time, any radar guided missile which is decoyed by the chaff would self-destruct once it loses its target after it flies through the chaff and there's no plane infront of it. There's no "5 minute chase" between a missile and a plane IRL like the film Behind Enemy Lines would have you believe!

 

[martynr]

Seeing reports an Il-22M was also shot down

Edit: Maybe 2x SU-34s as well *mutley sniggers*

So is it F-16s, Ukraine being very aggressive with air defence or Russia dropping the ball hard

Their aircraft were surplus to requirements anyway. They have enough technology to make new ones "analogovnet". Oh, wait...
I think for generals it is all or nothing. Fingers crossed some weird **** to happen in Rashka around election time of president of the world...

 

[Rroff]

and these have a 25km range

The block 6 ones supposedly are capable of 50-60km range, with 25km being the no escape range, but no one is confirming that. The tech it is based on has been tested to ranges in excess of 160km but no idea if the UK developed ones are capable of being tweaked for that kind of range.

 

[steve45]

I’ve seen reports suggesting Ukraine are moving a Patriot up to the front recently for this very tactic, shoot and scoot similar to Himars.

From what I've seen, Patriot isnt a "mobile" system in that sense, yes it is mobile in the sense it is moved around the battlefiled, but its a lengthy process to deploy and break down and move again. I had the pleasure of seeing in passing a Patriot Bty which had been deployed in a very recent trip to the Middle East. An entire Bty consisting of three launcher TEL's, radar module, command module and a power module. Even if you reduced it to a single launcher thats still 4 trailers requiring 4 tractors. I'd assume the radar and launchers requires sighted and surveying in, akin to other radars/launchers I'm familiar with. That to me isnt mobile, its not a case of fire mount up and move, there is a whole strip down, load up and move process which is likely to be looking at closer to 1hr+ if not more, and in a combat situation where there is risk from En fires/UAV's etc etc would be hugely risky. Again I'm not knowledgeable in GBAD. I'm just trying to apply reason and my experience with unrelated but not wildly dissimilar systems. I could very well be wrong.

Now, this is just my own little post-pub "Tom Clancy-esque" mental exercise regarding these recent A-50 shoot downs and the spate of other "longer than usual" ranged attack on SU-34/35 etc and seen as though everyone else is having a wild guess I'll have a go too. Again, just some wild drunken theories here not to be taken seriously, unless its later found out to be true in which case "High Five!" -

The US does have a very potent Surface to Air missile with the range required and the capability to hit, not just large slow moving aircraft at long range (something considered easy), but also hit small agile fighters filled with EW too at those same longer than expected ranges (something much harder to do) and last year the US Navy/Army have both tested this firing this missile from what looks like an over sized ISO container looking box fitted on a truck. This missile can be guided into the general area by the current Patriot system in Track Whilst Scan mode so any Russians wouldn't know they're being tracked and under attack until the missile's own radar goes active about 30 seconds before impact.

Ladies and Gents I present the upto 290 mile ranged SM-6 using the Mk70 Launcher as tested in Oct '23 -

Which is just as likely as the thoughts that Ukraine is already secretly using F-16's. I do however like Rroff's idea but with a simple tweak - the IR Guided Short Ranged ASRAAM can be fitted onto the back of a flatbed truck, which Ukraine already has, and these have a 25km range, so if you can smuggle in one of these systems into Russia and, as we already know the "usual" A-50 orbit area, drive one of these under it, that'd be pretty cool.

Regarding the video above of flares being fired by the aircraft and a missile exploding early, both chaff and flares would be fired at the same time, any radar guided missile which is decoyed by the chaff would self-destruct once it loses its target after it flies through the chaff and there's no plane infront of it. There's no "5 minute chase" between a missile and a plane IRL like the film Behind Enemy Lines would have you believe!

Very fascinating post. That SM-6 system, I was completely unfamiliar with. Whilst I'd love to think they are secretly testing it for US, I cant help but think its probably a bit of a stretch considering current climate in US in regards to providing aid. Would be incredible if that was the case though.
I never even considered angle where it could be work behind the lines

 

[ianh]

The block 6 ones supposedly are capable of 50-60km range

If air launched at high altitude and high speed.

I cant help but think its probably a bit of a stretch considering current climate in US in regards to providing aid. Would be incredible if that was the case though.

It's just a brain exercise, not to be taken seriously

 

[ubersonic]

Just a note, the A-50 was fired upon, hit, and downed all while it was inside Russian airspace (actual Russian airspace not occupied Ukrainian airspace). The US/UK/France have so far barred Ukraine from using their weapons outside of their pre-2014 borders in line with the Budapest Memorandum, so if they're still holding true to that this may have been something Ukraine cooked up themselves.

This has me very intrigued. Is it possible we are seeing a weapon system that we are not tracking/aware of in use here? Is there anything relatively "mobile" (not talking shoot and scoot) that could have been supplied/homegrown/legacy? One that can potentially strike at ranges 180km+

Far too many possibilities to list.

I.E it's possible they could have taken some of their old S-200 missiles out of storage, driven them down to the front lines, stuck them on a welded up ramp and jury rigged them to launched towards the Russian positions. Not exactly elegant but it's a free shot and it's either going to travel 350km then fall into the sea, fall into a field, fall on a Russian or lock onto a Russian plane.

Regarding the video above of flares being fired by the aircraft and a missile exploding early, both chaff and flares would be fired at the same time, any radar guided missile which is decoyed by the chaff would self-destruct once it loses its target after it flies through the chaff and there's no plane infront of it. There's no "5 minute chase" between a missile and a plane IRL like the film Behind Enemy Lines would have you believe!

Worth noting this only applies to western missiles. When Soviet ones (like the ones Ukraine and Russia have large stockpiles of) loose their lock they tend to carry on going until they reacquire their target, acquire an airliner, or run out of fuel (whichever happens first).

 

[bingham67]

Just if Ukraine had 30-40 Patriots can you imagine the damage.

 

[arknor]

Just a note, the A-50 was fired upon, hit, and downed all while it was inside Russian airspace (actual Russian airspace not occupied Ukrainian airspace). The US/UK/France have so far barred Ukraine from using their weapons outside of their pre-2014 borders in line with the Budapest Memorandum, so if they're still holding true to that this may have been something Ukraine cooked up themselves.

probably a drone

 

[dowie]

Far too many possibilities to list.

I.E it's possible they could have taken some of their old S-200 missiles out of storage, driven them down to the front lines, stuck them on a welded up ramp and jury rigged them to launched towards the Russian positions. Not exactly elegant but it's a free shot and it's either going to travel 350km then fall into the sea, fall into a field, fall on a Russian or lock onto a Russian plane.

I do like the idea that there is some Mad Max-esq, highly mobile, ground-launched system they've put together.

The idea of a few F16s being delivered early might have explained the earlier incidents, taking risks with Patriot is probably more plausible. But some sort of more mobile, system they've manufactured themselves and can risk driving close to the front seems possible.

I guess also there's the possibility of some sort of stealth drone with air-to-air capabilities (an F16 ought to have been detected by the A-50).

 

[Grim5]

Just if Ukraine had 30-40 Patriots can you imagine the damage.

Similiar to HIMARS in that the supply of missiles is less than the Patriot systems

The US military seems to have a problem of having more platforms than ammunition to use on those platforms. Whether it's missiles, or artillery they have more guns than they have ammunition and that's a problem for them for Ukraine

 

[Rising]

Just if Ukraine had 30-40 Patriots can you imagine the damage.

Isn't this how many Russia claims to of destroyed already this week?

 

[StriderX]

Similiar to HIMARS in that the supply of missiles is less than the Patriot systems

The US military seems to have a problem of having more platforms than ammunition to use on those platforms. Whether it's missiles, or artillery they have more guns than they have ammunition and that's a problem for them for Ukraine

The pentagon loves doing that, I guess the idea is that air superiority is god (even though in a protracted conflict all those planes are dead) so not much need for any of these vanity toys on the ground.

 

[Grim5]

I know the the airborne division, VDV, was decimated in Ukraine but this is just pathetic

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760840881484046517

 

[Sankari]

Russians grunt and bleat in shock as Ukrainian drones score another big hit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761193126390014133

 

[Grim5]

The nemesis of the Black Sea fleet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761049273745948978

 

[Rroff]

Which is just as likely as the thoughts that Ukraine is already secretly using F-16's. I do however like Rroff's idea but with a simple tweak - the IR Guided Short Ranged ASRAAM can be fitted onto the back of a flatbed truck, which Ukraine already has, and these have a 25km range, so if you can smuggle in one of these systems into Russia and, as we already know the "usual" A-50 orbit area, drive one of these under it, that'd be pretty cool.

With a bit of work you could probably disguise a Supacat HMT to superficially look like a KamAZ 43114 or similar. Then just whip off the cover when ready.

 

[Abraxaz1]

I’m wondering, with the Black Sea fleet hiding in port if the Ukrainians have mounted something like the iris-t to a small boat and are just sitting out of the coast waiting for targets?

Would make Russia job so much more difficult, as they would have to locate every small boat, make sure it’s aggressive not a fishing boat and target them all while their air and sea assets are at risk