Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[bingham67]

OK, let's say they take Ukraine, then what?

Moldova? but I know people say here article 5 will be triggered for rest I don't know.

Apologies I probably need to back off it just really frustrates me that Ukraine are sitting ducks now.

 

[Rroff]

If you really dial it back though, all this talk of him wanting NATO to get involved doesn't make any sense.

In a conventional war, he's toast and Russia loses. In a nuclear war, the whole world is gone.

He's committed most of Russia's military to Ukraine. This shows that he doesn't expect NATO to get involved as his army will get wiped out easily.

Therefore, how it starts does not matter at all because in both scenarios Russia loses. If he truly wanted world war 3, he could have easily started it by now.

He has barely committed much of the regular army to Ukraine - this is mostly new recruits/conscripts/mercs and a smaller number of VDV and other special forces, etc. most of the hardware/equipment is expiring or expired (other than that used by special forces), put back into service after decades of being mothballed, etc. etc.

However the main Russian army is in no shape to engage NATO - Russia hasn't gone on a full military mobilisation or mass conscription.

 

[Slam62]

And when Russia nukes somewhere? Ukraine, or somewhere more Western... then what?

You do understand call their bluff don't you it's a risk but sometimes you've just got to and the less resolve you show the more likely you are to fail.

Whatever the cost may be.

 

[glenimp617]

more and more countries now will want their own Nukes

This is so very, very wrong

 

[robfosters]

I wish we could go back to the days of fighting wars like men, with swords, shields, longbows and cavalry charges.

The most scary thing they had to face was a trebuchet

 

[413x]

If Russia start really ramping up, cluster bombing residential buildings and the casualities start getting out of hand, I think at that point, NATO will have some serious conversations about what to do next.

This is what I think if anything putin is paying at. He won't be forcing nato to go in. But it's nearly irresistible bait. How can nato not go in?

But if we do.. That's probably ww3.

I would not like to be the politicians in Europe for that.

 

[Ranger07]

There's a possibility that we will get an East/West Ukraine scenario if the forces from the Russian north meet with the forces from Crimea.

I think something like this could be the best outcome for Ukraine but I doubt Putin will stop there

 

[Hades]

As much as I hate Boris Johnsons domestic record I do think he's not put a foot wrong on this crisis.

Begrudgingly I agree. He has been an awful PM so far but done OK over this.

 

[englishpremier]

Interesting the states around the med are mainly the ones with US 'rented' nukes weapons. Turkey being one, Italy etc. So I'm wondering if Putin-escu's plan is attempt to annex the Black Sea completely for Russian use. Including the straights. Basically they don't like Turkey due to the drones and aid..

It seems like step 2 in the plan after "annex" Ukraine is moving into action.

There's no way Russia could wage war on Turkey. It's the largest military in Europe and is defensible. It's not just open plains like Ukraine.

 

[Slam62]

I think it's time to say go on then,

 

[413x]

It's truly unbelievable that no one in Russia can step in or are willing to step in as a collective and just end this from the inside.

They have so much to lose. At a selfish level it makes total sense. These are rich smart people. Unbelievable

 

[NickK]

They are writing the pretext and message to the home audience to fire a small nuclear weapon into Ukraine.

I have no idea how the west respond when that happens, but yes Putin wants the west involved so he can kick off properly and justify what is going on.

Putin has a dead hand system, that monitors for sisemic activity, light flashes etc. So that would operate in the event of the head being cut off the snake and the west wanted a preemptive strike. So basically the same as the UK's PM's prior written orders to hit back should the state be under nuclear attack. It's unclear if that expands into Belarus.

I suspect the longer this goes on, with changes in plan that more people internally be asking themselves if Putin is strong enough (worrying) or if putin has done the country in (possible).

 

[JBeck]

The convoy will have air cover for sure so I’m at a miss as to what Ukrainian forces can do to stop it . Yes I’m sure pinch points along the way will slow things down but it looks like this convoy will be in Kyiv in the next day !

I don't understand why the Ukrainian Artillery haven't smashed it, it's like 40 miles long, that's a huge and easy target for such a bombardment.

Maybe they don't have any left? I can't think of any other reason.

 

[Jono8]

I'm not sure if it's his intention to get nato involved. I think it maybe if it looks like him losing. When someone doesn't care about his country at all all bets are off. He's completely unpredictable. I genuinely see all cards on the table.

It's exactly like a hostage situation with an absolute mad man

But you said you thought he was trying to bait NATO.

I don't think he is. I imagine he very much doesn't want NATO to get involved.

 

[squerble]

You do understand call their bluff don't you it's a risk but sometimes you've just got to and the less resolve you show the more likely you are to fail.

Whatever the cost may be.

So making the Earth uninhabitable is a risk we should take? Don't be ridiculous

 

[robgmun]

OK, let's say they take Ukraine, then what?

The next country that used to be in the USSR

 

[wildman]

You do understand call their bluff don't you it's a risk but sometimes you've just got to and the less resolve you show the more likely you are to fail.

Whatever the cost may be.

in conventional types of war that's fine, when you are talking about potentially ending humanity then no. Everyone saying call his bluff, send in NATO etc are simply stuck in a game of command and conquer. What's the point of saving one country, that in reality no one really gives a **** about at the cost of ending civilisation to a certain extent as you know it today. That is a gamble that I cannot see any responsible NATO country taking ever.

Look at Yemen as an example. The Saudi's have been cluster bombing the living daylights out of civilian and built up areas repeatedly, but no one is talking about sending the boys in over there. The only reason people are losing bowel control here is because it's a bit closer to home. The same facts remain though. Ukraine is not in NATO so NATO will not be deploying to theatre anytime soon. The way this ends is through the Russian electorate effectively saying we had enough of this **** (sanctions rally biting in hard) and they have another revolution and hang Putin in red square.

 

[Puzzled]

I don't understand why the Ukrainian Artillery haven't smashed it, it's like 40 miles long, that's a huge and easy target for such a bombardment.

Maybe they don't have any left? I can't think of any other reason.

Telegraph is reporting that Ukraine artillery and drones have hit the convoy and that is why it has stalled.

 

[kindai]

I don't understand why the Ukrainian Artillery haven't smashed it, it's like 40 miles long, that's a huge and easy target for such a bombardment.

Its still a long way off the main city, could also be a tactical move, have you seen the road theyre traveling on? Bait them in, block the front off, block the back off and then the entire convoy is one huge long sitting duck. Hundreds/thousands of vehicles with practically no escape.

The more I think about it the stupider the Russians seem to be pouring so many assets down 1 road.

 

[BananaDunka]

From 4:55 onwards, Colbert's Putin statement was done in good humour