Soldato
- Joined
- 25 Nov 2005
- Posts
- 12,453
Russia can't win this war of attrition so at some point they have to either escalate or call it quits, it's simply not sustainable
but it's hard to see them making further steps towards Kyiv, even in ideal circumstances just yet.
Holding what territory they've taken/will take in the coming weeks takes considerably less equipment and manpower then opening new fronts or advancing to any significant extent.
Was reading yesterday the US think Russia are planning / digging in for the long run.
We’ve been told Russia are running low on pretty much everything, and the amount of reported losses like the bridge crossing above are staggering.
The two don’t seem compatible, what is a likely outcome here?
meanwhile the West moves on to the next big thing
Russia thinks long term, they know the West have very short memories and enthusiasm and commitment fades quickly as terms/parties/leaders wax and wane. Hold down what they gained, rebuild their forces and move forward at their own pace. A war of attrition meanwhile the West loses interest and moves on to the next big thing.
Russians have a different mentality huge losses are historically the norm for them they don't value life and freedom in the same way we do squaddies are just cannon fodder dying for the motherland there'll be a glorious parade to celebrate their sacrifice in future.
Russia thinks long term, they know the West have very short memories and enthusiasm and commitment fades quickly as terms/parties/leaders wax and wane. Hold down what they gained, rebuild their forces and move forward at their own pace. A war of attrition meanwhile the West loses interest and moves on to the next big thing.
Russians have a different mentality huge losses are historically the norm for them they don't value life and freedom in the same way we do squaddies are just cannon fodder dying for the glorious motherland.
Yup - once the initial memories of why this kicked off, etc. start to fade those in the West are going to start voting with their feet against the inconveniences to their daily lives while Russia will be set more for the longer run.
We were in Afghanistan with an even more vague mission at immense cost with NATO-member soldiers dying constantly for over 20 years. I do not believe it will matter much at all if the public become disinterested when politicians will be more than happy to continue pleasing defence contractors without any of the bad news of losing soldiers.Yup - once the initial memories of why this kicked off, etc. start to fade those in the West are going to start voting with their feet against the inconveniences to their daily lives while Russia will be set more for the longer run.
The west are nothing like you just described and were in Afghanistan longer than the Russians. Not to mention a very long time in Iraq and Vietnam. The west have absolutely no qualms fighting a long proxy way in Ukraine, that will bleed the Russians dry both financially and in equipment.
We were in Afghanistan with an even more vague mission with a country that barely exists with NATO-member soldiers dying constantly for over 20 years. I do not believe it will matter much at all if the public become disinterested when politicians will be more than happy to continue pleasing defence contractors without any of the bad news of losing soldiers.
Yup - once the initial memories of why this kicked off, etc. start to fade those in the West are going to start voting with their feet against the inconveniences to their daily lives while Russia will be set more for the longer run.
Putins legacy.....
The west also fought the cold war with the soviet Union for about 45 years without getting fed up and deciding to stop wasting money on rockets, spycraft, proxy wars, assisting friendly states become friendlier.Yup - once the initial memories of why this kicked off, etc. start to fade those in the West are going to start voting with their feet against the inconveniences to their daily lives while Russia will be set more for the longer run.
He would have been better keeping up the charade that Russia's military is in anyway capable/to be feared.
The west also fought the cold war with the soviet Union for about 45 years without getting fed up and deciding to stop wasting money on rockets, spycraft, proxy wars, assisting friendly states become friendlier.
We are in this for the long haul and countries that backslide will feel the wrath of the rest. Russia has bit off more than it can digest this time. The western world may have some inconvenience but nothing to what the populace of Russia and it's remaining satellites will go through. Having already lost lives and treasure to Russia over the last decade, Europe and the USA should be in no mind to back away now.
All that proves is that Finland is justified in joining NATO and should go much further by completely disconnecting itself from Russia's supply chain.It's being reported that Russia is going to turn off electricity to Finland tomorrow.
So far from proving NATO wrong and Russia isn't a threat to either Finland or Sweden, 'Mad Vlad' as gone in to blackmail mode.
I agree about Turkey, that they like to play both sides. They are probably trying to get some deal going for something.
This is a lot more complicated - Putin is paranoid about committing from the main Russian forces (which aren't in great shape but better than the picture emerging from Ukraine might suggest). Where people are seeing desperation rolling out old hardware this is often trying to avoid depleting active good stock.
I would say if Russia had drawn the forces used for this war exclusively from the cream of their established main forces things would have been very different for Ukraine and a much harder fight - but I've heard from reliable sources for instance that one of the reasons they put so many T-80s back into service was because their latest and greatest T-90s weren't proving as reliable as they were cracked up to be.
You contradicted point 1, with point 2.
If they are trying to avoid depleting good stock, what exactly is the good stock if the latest T90's are not up to scratch? and they don't have the T14 Armata available. Exposing fundamental issues within Russian armed forces of cannibalising older equipment to make new stuff run doesn't mean Ukraine is being "let off the hook". The Russians have sent themselves down that path.
Even if Russia uses its supposed cream, its shown to have such logistical and tactical inadequacies in using any of its forces that Russian military power is seen as a complete joke. If it wasn't for the fact Russia is a nuclear equipped state any of the belligerent statements and threats it has been making would be toothless and quite frankly comedic.
It's being reported that Russia is going to turn off electricity to Finland tomorrow.
So far from proving NATO wrong and Russia isn't a threat to either Finland or Sweden, 'Mad Vlad' as gone in to blackmail mode.
I agree about Turkey, that they like to play both sides. They are probably trying to get some deal going for something.
You have been saying this for a few months now with nothing to back it up, it’s been shot down several times now about Russia apparently “not using there best forces” in Ukraine, Russia has deployed all of the “cream” that it can without leaving itself vulnerable in other areas of the country.This is a lot more complicated - Putin is paranoid about committing from the main Russian forces (which aren't in great shape but better than the picture emerging from Ukraine might suggest). Where people are seeing desperation rolling out old hardware this is often trying to avoid depleting active good stock.
I would say if Russia had drawn the forces used for this war exclusively from the cream of their established main forces things would have been very different for Ukraine and a much harder fight - but I've heard from reliable sources for instance that one of the reasons they put so many T-80s back into service was because their latest and greatest T-90s weren't proving as reliable as they were cracked up to be.
As I said it is complicated - but I think we'd have seen a somewhat different situation if they'd committed from their best stuff exclusively rather than eating into it piecemeal as things have fallen apart - that doesn't mean the underlying issues aren't there but they may not have been as exposed.