Why is Paddy McGuinness presenting this?
WBAC Values
- Thread starter Gibbo
- Start date
A colleague is after a smallish new SUV with caravan towing capabilities. Every dealer she’s been to is still quoting six to twelve months. Another colleague waited a couple of months shy of two years for a hybrid Octavia and another waiting nearly a year for a new MG. The are still lengthy delays on new cars, but it also appears that buyers are refusing any high used prices too. Supply is drying up due to fewer new cars being sold but demand has cratered too.
Any thoughts on timing for buying a used car at this point?
Currently waiting for the right spec approved used M135i at a couple of years old to pop up somewhere nearby. Would like to get it done within the next few months. I wonder if prices might dip further after Christmas or maybe even as we get closer to the end of the FY?
Currently waiting for the right spec approved used M135i at a couple of years old to pop up somewhere nearby. Would like to get it done within the next few months. I wonder if prices might dip further after Christmas or maybe even as we get closer to the end of the FY?
I'd say hold off if you can. Prices should continue to fall I'd say. Grab the Autotrader Chrome extension and it lets you view price drops and how long the car has been listed too. There are 135i's this side of the border that have been for sale since August.
Prices are in free fall. Avoid buying anything niche or with high running costs, they are the first to come down. Porches are getting hit hard, I would expect go-faster 1 series will also be hit hard.
Sub£5k cars should be ok for a while, but will also be rebased over time. All the nonsense over covid is reversing, if you are betting on your car holding its Value and you need that capital for something important, get out now while you still can.
Sub£5k cars should be ok for a while, but will also be rebased over time. All the nonsense over covid is reversing, if you are betting on your car holding its Value and you need that capital for something important, get out now while you still can.
The fundamentals of the market suggest that this correction will be shortlived. For three years the new market was 1.6m units when it would have been c2.2m. That means there are c2m less sub 3 year old used cars in the vehicle parc. Used car sales normally average between 7.3m and 8m a year so if this rate is to be continued then the lack of supply moving forward should mean that values only adjust "normally" which would be c 2-3%/month. Values have not really been depreciating much until August this year. Compared with the Covid appreciation of c30% there is not much to overly worry about. The other aspect to consider is that new car pricing has been inflating considerably in the last 2/3 years pushing them out of reach for many people. That coupled with the lack of small B segment cars from many manufacturers (eg Ford Fiesta) means that used b seg cars will be relatively safe.
The market needed a correction and whilst it might mean a few dealers getting caught out for a couple of months that is offset by the super profits they earned in 21 and 22. The big challenge next year will be meeting the new car ZEV targets of 22%. Thats should mean some better pricing for electric cars hopefully.
The market needed a correction and whilst it might mean a few dealers getting caught out for a couple of months that is offset by the super profits they earned in 21 and 22. The big challenge next year will be meeting the new car ZEV targets of 22%. Thats should mean some better pricing for electric cars hopefully.
Not many people want to spend £20k+ on a car right now. Especially when finance deals are far worse than 2 years ago.
I think the car market was a massive bubble with record low interest rates, making finance deals cheap, and giving homeowners lots of disposable income.
I think the car market was a massive bubble with record low interest rates, making finance deals cheap, and giving homeowners lots of disposable income.
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Associate
Older M135i admittedly so a very different part of the market (2012) but I just picked one up sub £9k that does need a little work but drives brilliantly
The chap before me bought it at £14k odd in 2020 which feels crazy
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Hi there
I think from following markets and buying / selling cars in short:
Sub 10k (certainly 5k) - Cars won't be impacted or very little and March onwards next year these may even pick up and go up yet more.
20-50k - Regular cars, certainly dropping but again March next year might actually strengthen, just correcting from shortages but more shortages could be due so they could bounce back up.
30-250k - Sports/Supercars, namely toys these are getting hit very hard, Porsche is one brand getting absolutely hammered, the bubble has popped but it is pretty much all brands, for sure but a year ago 992 GT3's were fetching overs at 250k plus, whereas today dealers are struggling to sell them for 170k, so trade circa 140k. There is a chance that some leggy or poor spec 458's will be 100k, 488's are also not far behind, 100k 720S is close to happening with trade sub 100k. 718 GT4''s are now around 75k and GT4 RS are also down from well over 200k to around 170k. Cars like this could and some brands will continue dropping next year. Some brands could bounce though as new supercars are now outrageous money, an MC20 is 300k spec, new Lambo 500k so big big money and the reality is most these cars are not as fun to drive as supercars of yesterday, they are just faster but that never means better or more fun, so the big price points and boring levels of new stuff could still see demand increase on used market and thus prices settle or move back up.
500k plus - No change.
So if your selling the next three months will be brutal, if you can wait until Spring it might help but no crystal ball so in three months market could be crashing still and more down, or it could settle or some other crazy shortage may come about boosting used market again.
In short, see a car you like, happy with the price, just get it purchased, YOLO!
I think from following markets and buying / selling cars in short:
Sub 10k (certainly 5k) - Cars won't be impacted or very little and March onwards next year these may even pick up and go up yet more.
20-50k - Regular cars, certainly dropping but again March next year might actually strengthen, just correcting from shortages but more shortages could be due so they could bounce back up.
30-250k - Sports/Supercars, namely toys these are getting hit very hard, Porsche is one brand getting absolutely hammered, the bubble has popped but it is pretty much all brands, for sure but a year ago 992 GT3's were fetching overs at 250k plus, whereas today dealers are struggling to sell them for 170k, so trade circa 140k. There is a chance that some leggy or poor spec 458's will be 100k, 488's are also not far behind, 100k 720S is close to happening with trade sub 100k. 718 GT4''s are now around 75k and GT4 RS are also down from well over 200k to around 170k. Cars like this could and some brands will continue dropping next year. Some brands could bounce though as new supercars are now outrageous money, an MC20 is 300k spec, new Lambo 500k so big big money and the reality is most these cars are not as fun to drive as supercars of yesterday, they are just faster but that never means better or more fun, so the big price points and boring levels of new stuff could still see demand increase on used market and thus prices settle or move back up.
500k plus - No change.
So if your selling the next three months will be brutal, if you can wait until Spring it might help but no crystal ball so in three months market could be crashing still and more down, or it could settle or some other crazy shortage may come about boosting used market again.
In short, see a car you like, happy with the price, just get it purchased, YOLO!
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A few points made about supply-side constraints, which although true in 20-22 doesnt reflect what’s happening now. There is a lot of supply, have a look at volumes on Autotrader.
The guy who mentioned finance deals is on the right path. Most people purchase cars with debt products, these have increased significantly in cost over the last 6 months. Although the base rates have stabilised, the real test is Q1 24 to see what happens with employment levels. They are currently are record highs, which is maintaining asset prices including property. If unemployment starts to rise, finance will be more difficult to obtain which will create further rebasing.
I would avoid the ‘YOLO’ behaviour in the next 6 months as it could be very costly. But hey, its your money / debt.
The guy who mentioned finance deals is on the right path. Most people purchase cars with debt products, these have increased significantly in cost over the last 6 months. Although the base rates have stabilised, the real test is Q1 24 to see what happens with employment levels. They are currently are record highs, which is maintaining asset prices including property. If unemployment starts to rise, finance will be more difficult to obtain which will create further rebasing.
I would avoid the ‘YOLO’ behaviour in the next 6 months as it could be very costly. But hey, its your money / debt.
Caporegime
Hi there
I think from following markets and buying / selling cars in short:
again March next year might actually strengthen, just correcting from shortages but more shortages could be due so they could bounce back up.
30-250k - Sports/Supercars, namely toys these are getting hit very hard, Porsche is one brand getting absolutely hammered, the bubble has popped but it is pretty much all brands.
In short, see a car you like, happy with the price, just get it purchased, YOLO!
You think something like an AM V8 Vantage will drop much more?
Anything remotely premium will be tanking I'd say. I'd avoid buying until at least early next year if interest rates remain high.
A manual 4.7 will hold value best. Then 4.3 manual.
The speed shift aka SMG cars are not selling, if you happy with the hydraulic paddle manual car you can bid very aggressive and get very cheap.
Also advertised prices are not sale prices, my advice is find 2-3 cars you like and just be cheeky, if your perfect cars are say 40k, bid 34k on them and see if a seller bites or is willing to discuss and maybe strike a deal.
A lot of stuff of like Audi R8's, Vantages have been sitting unsold for months. Ferrari 360 and 430 F1 (paddle shift) cars are absolutely in the toilette, I've seen 360 F1 sell for sub 30k again, back to pre-covid levels, whereas manuals are commanding double the money. Of course a Ferrari manual are rare and its a superb manual box, but alike I'd take the Aston manual everyday over speedshift even though the manual in the Aston is not great but with seat time you get used to it. As the saying goes, manuals don't age, but automatics do.
Also when it comes to re-sale try to find the most desirable spec car you can, I've noticed a lot of cars still fetch OK money if the spec is good, for example my 458 sold within two weeks when other similar age/mileage cars for less money are not selling, but simply because the spec is not desirable, so do research and find out what both you want spec wise and what the market wants, then if you can find a car and sort a deal it somewhat protects you from big losses depreciation wise, never buy bargain basement car unless your truly paying a crazy low price as by the time your finished with it the car could be hard to move, particular high mileage cars.
Market is tough for sellers, if you desired spec is nothing rare and as such plenty for sale, put some cheeky offers down now, if none accept wait another month, generally December tends to be average to slow, this December will probably be terrible, but January could see an uplift if genuine or false, so best to test drive and make offers now in advance to actually wanting to buy just in case someone truly needs out and you drop on a bargain or if your after a rare spec then of course right price just buy.
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Caporegime
Thanks! Will keep an eye on prices between now and spring, i guess people will be even more desperate after Christmas.
No idea what i fancy in truth but a 4.7 V8 Vantage has been on the list for years, however even with the F1 box the 360 prices are interesting, its just a whole other level of maintenance which i'm not sure i can be bothered with.
Need to pay for two house extensions first....
I always say go drive cars if your unsure, makes deciding easier.
Having driven these in all guises I will say:
Ferrari 360 F1 - Easy to flash to both CS engine and transmission maps, cost about £1000 by AV engineering down south, gives about 430HP and much faster F1 and smoother, very similar to flashing an E46 SMG to the CSL firmware, as such if you got along with SMG you'd get along with F1 and to some extent Aston's speedshift, which there is also maybe flashes for to faster software, the faster software updates also reduce clutch wear. Something to bear in mind though with F1 and Lamborghini E-Gear for whatever reason reversing up hill is a big no no on these cars due to extra torque from V8's can burn the clutch out alarmingly fast. So if you reverse park up hill at home, rule out an F1 car.
360 running cost, inspection is crucial otherwise there can be 20k worth of work required, a good car is then no crazy to run, AE engineering in Knutsford is superb, £500 for minor service, £1100 for major service and £550 for belts, the latter is every three years, clutch/flywheel replacement is £3500-£6000 depending on what is required at an independent.
The 4.7 Vantage is great, plenty of experience here as well, reliable for me, manual and clutch is very heavy but you get used to it, great steering, simply epic sounding just by pulling fuse 22 out and plenty quick enough, again there is a superb Specialist in Macclesfield, called AML I think, guy I went to school with works there, so if you get one, let me know and I will get Mark to look after you.
In current market £30,000 should get you a really nice 4.7 manual if your aggressive and though things are dropping a 30k Vantage is never going to be 15k, not unless you crash it or triple/quadruple its miles, AML can also do inspections.
Associate
You can just put rubbish in the contact details and it will still give you a CAP valuation for forecourt/tradein/private value.Free Expert Car Valuations from HPI | HPI Valuations
Get an expert Car Valuation from HPI. The same used car prices that car dealers rely on. We provide trade-in, private sale & forecourt prices.hpivaluations.com
Years ago I used to have a subscription to the CAP black book service where they sent you the little black book once a month. To the best of my knowledge the printed black book service has now stopped and it is all done online?
Does anyone know what the current subscription cost is for the CAP service that updates the valuations once a month, not the live valuation service?
Thx
Bintos
£5,485 today. Dropping like a brick.