Weak demand leads Apple to halve iPhone 5 component orders

I've read a couple of speculation articles, just like the actual conponent reports themselves, that this could be large scale stock manipulation ahead of next weeks earnings report.

http://www.marco.org/2013/01/14/apple-cuts-orders-for-iphone-parts

But next week, Apple reports its earnings for the quarter that included the iPhone 5’s release and the holidays. Most reasonable predictions suggest that it’s going to be very good news. As with good quarterly-earnings reports in the past, the stock could shoot up, and anyone who bought a bunch of it recently at a steep discount could make a lot of money.
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Weak demand for one model doesn't really matter. Wow us with a future iPhone and people will start buying them again. The ecosystem is already well established and can take the hit.

Reports of Apple's death are greatly exaggerated. That doesn't mean it can take its position for granted, however. If it's true that demand has been way below projections then a ball obviously got dropped somewhere.
 
JonB said:
I've read a couple of speculation articles, just like the actual conponent reports themselves, that this could be large scale stock manipulation ahead of next weeks earnings report.

http://www.marco.org/2013/01/14/apple-cuts-orders-for-iphone-parts
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"Disclosure: I own shares of Apple stock, and this is not investment advice. In fact, my track record with trading individual stocks has been mostly mediocre, so I’m not qualified whatsoever to tell anyone when to buy or sell them."
 
This happens every time the launch something new around March.

The difference this time is there is starting to be serious device and OS competition for Apple now. Their ability to charge a premium is being erroded. My Android tablet I bought recently is a lot closer to an ipad than android tabkets were two years ago at less than half the price.
 
Not that its worth 2p, but i'll be moving to a win8 phone when vodafone bring out the 920... apple for me was my first 'smart' phone, theyve not moved on since the 4 by any major means. One thing i will say for it, its well built and as withstood me using it as a HD video recording device for my rc car - i rolled it and its still in one piece and working properly :).. I'm also kinda against their foxconn conditions etc, but then i guess most bits are made there and would have to get rid of most of my tech kit if i wanted to live true to my ethical ways.. Ill shut up now as all i've done is contradict myself left right and centre !
 
DarkHorizon472 said:
This happens every time the launch something new around March.

The difference this time is there is starting to be serious device and OS competition for Apple now. Their ability to charge a premium is being erroded. My Android tablet I bought recently is a lot closer to an ipad than android tabkets were two years ago at less than half the price.
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This is the problem - IOS has not evolved at all back from nearly 7 years ago. Its about time Apple's bubble burst. A simple row of 4 x 4 icons (or whateva) is just plain boring by todays standards.

<Android, WP7, and shock horror IOS user.
 
zoomee said:
This is the problem - IOS has not evolved at all back from nearly 7 years ago. Its about time Apple's bubble burst. A simple row of 4 x 4 icons (or whateva) is just plain boring by todays standards.

<Android, WP7, and shock horror IOS user.
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It has evolved, just slowly and without big changes. If you expect massive, drastic changes then you know nothing about Apple or why people like them. You can easily argue Android hasn't changed either, aside from the colour scheme. Its way of operation remains similar to earlier versions.

There were rumours of bad iPhone 4S sales (which wasn't as impressive as the 5) and that still massively outsold most of the direct competition, combined. I bet the same rings true here.
 
The issue, at least for me, is not whether it outsells the competition but whether their confidence in the iPhone5 was misplaced. Halving your order is significant whichever way you cut it and I'm not buying this 'better production yield' thing as an explanation.

Given the mixed reception to the upgrade and the general iOS6 debacle it would be more unusual for us not to expect a distortion in demand. I don't think you can pin an argument on this story however, because it's just basically a factoid.
 
The fact of the matter is Tim Cook is the problem. Before him in command, Apple would release new products when they were ready to released and actually made a significant hardware upgrade on the previous generation.

Now Tim and his gang at Apple think they can make fools out of anyone and people are finally latching on to the fact that adding a number to the end of your previous product generation and selling it as some revolutionary product does not do well for your sales!

iPad 3 to 4 being a point in case. Change the connector and then don't even provide an adapter free for all the 'loyal' Apple users stinks of a company that is in it to rinse every willing customer's pocket. Oh, and as several tear downs found out, the new connector internally takes the same amount of space as the old one.

I just hope someone at Apple wakes up and smells the coffee before businessman Tim takes Apple down.
 
Surely the problem Apple have now is that with such a short time between new phone releases people are more likely to hold off buying one, particularly when there is little difference between models.
 
Can't really call it noise when the stock has been trending downwards 30% since September.

You're a fool if you think jailbreaking makes any noticeable difference to Apple's sales. The market is saturated and the competition is better than it once was.
 
Type_R said:
The fact of the matter is Tim Cook is the problem. Before him in command, Apple would release new products when they were ready to released and actually made a significant hardware upgrade on the previous generation.

Now Tim and his gang at Apple think they can make fools out of anyone and people are finally latching on to the fact that adding a number to the end of your previous product generation and selling it as some revolutionary product does not do well for your sales!

iPad 3 to 4 being a point in case. Change the connector and then don't even provide an adapter free for all the 'loyal' Apple users stinks of a company that is in it to rinse every willing customer's pocket. Oh, and as several tear downs found out, the new connector internally takes the same amount of space as the old one.

I just hope someone at Apple wakes up and smells the coffee before businessman Tim takes Apple down.
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Amen, couldn't agree more. But, shareholders demand performance and value for money and they couldn't give a stuff how they get it. Cook is pandering to shareholders, not customers. Customers are a necessary evil, but shareholders are boss.
 
theheyes said:
The issue, at least for me, is not whether it outsells the competition but whether their confidence in the iPhone5 was misplaced. Halving your order is significant whichever way you cut it and I'm not buying this 'better production yield' thing as an explanation.

Given the mixed reception to the upgrade and the general iOS6 debacle it would be more unusual for us not to expect a distortion in demand. I don't think you can pin an argument on this story however, because it's just basically a factoid.
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Assuming it was halved across the board. It could have been halved with one supplier to move to another supplier, spreading the risk. There hasn't been anything concrete in any of these reports apart from 'somebody in the know'.

Total BS reporting.
 
cymatty said:
Surely the stock price will already include the fact that Apple will have good sales figures, it's not like it will be a shock?
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But thats kind of the point. Their stock value doesn't match their earnings, not even close.


Apple’s share price has fallen by more than a fifth since September
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Think that's a bit more worrying for Apple fans.
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But it's still up about $90 on this time last year, it's all about context. They'll announce that they've beaten or matched their estimates on sales next week and the stock will go back up again.

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/1/14/a-note-on-apples-guidance

Type_R said:
The fact of the matter is Tim Cook is the problem. Before him in command, Apple would release new products when they were ready to released and actually made a significant hardware upgrade on the previous generation.

iPad 3 to 4 being a point in case. Change the connector and then don't even provide an adapter free for all the 'loyal' Apple users stinks of a company that is in it to rinse every willing customer's pocket. Oh, and as several tear downs found out, the new connector internally takes the same amount of space as the old one.
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First of all - I don't know how you can't call the iPhone 4S to the iPhone 5 a significant hardware upgrade on a previous generation. Twice as fast, both CPU and GPU. 1/3rd thinner and lighter. Sounds like a pretty good upgrade from my iPhone 3GS to be honest. It's not like, by Apple releasing a new model, all your old stuff instantly stopped working. iPhones and iPads are the new computing platform. Would you buy a new Macbook Pro or an iMac every 6 or 12 months?

zoomee said:
This is the problem - IOS has not evolved at all back from nearly 7 years ago. Its about time Apple's bubble burst. A simple row of 4 x 4 icons (or whateva) is just plain boring by todays standards.
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You need to go back to iOS 2 or 3 then. Apple has ALWAYS been about incremental changes, year on year, platform improvements. They're building the operating system of the future, not a fad gadget.

Finally, for those complaining about the new connector...

connectorsp.jpg
 
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Personally the fact that the base iPhone 5 crossed the £500 barrier shocked me a little bit so I ended up getting a Note2 as it seemed to offer better value for money.

Really glad I made the switch now tbh, enjoying the change :)
 
Tero Kuittinen, writing for BGR, says exactly what I thought when I saw the WSJ’s story last night:

So if the most likely number of 4-inch screens Apple is reasonably expected to sell in March quarter is around 30 to 40 million units, why did Nikkei publish a report stating that Apple had halved its display orders for the quarter from 65 million units? Nikkei was quite specific about the 65 million number. And it clearly tied it to iPhone 5 component orders, not total iPhone or iPhone 5 and iPod touch orders.

In what world did Apple expect to order components for 65 million iPhone 5 handsets in the seasonally soft March quarter?

Perhaps the weirdness of the math is why the current version of the WSJ article no longer cites the 65 million unit figure. Sometime between Sunday at 8:00 p.m. EST and Monday at 7:00 a.m., the Journal decided to drop the number from its article. But if the 65 million number is not right, is the estimate for halving March orders correct, either?
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The reports claiming 65 million displays for next quarter make little sense; the reports that claim component orders have been “halved” but without any specific numbers can’t be verified three months from now when Apple reports its actual iPhone sales for the coming quarter. In the meantime, of course, Apple’s stock took a beating today on these reports. If you don’t smell stock manipulation here, I have a bridge to sell you.
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via Daring Fireball and BGR

http://bgr.com/2013/01/14/iphone-5-analysis-component-cuts-291307/
http://daringfireball.net/linked/2013/01/14/strange-math

Personally I think we should just lock this thread, it's just another chance to do the whole Apple vs Android thing and it's tiring, based on yet another ******** rumour.
 
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