When the Gpu's prices will go down ?

CuriousTomCat · 13 Jul 2022 at 14:40

I'm going to wait. There should be a two tier leap at least. So 4050 matches 3070 perf. 4060 matches 3080 perf. etc.

A 4060 is guaranteed to be cheaper than a 3080 and use less power.

JediFragger · 13 Jul 2022 at 15:02

4nm products are going to be a fair more expensive to produce (and more vRam!), so I'd personally expect the 4070 to be in the £550ish area...

KompuKare · 13 Jul 2022 at 15:24

Do we have any info on TSMC's 5nm and 4nm wafer prices?
I know demand is lower now, but while we all decry the huge mark-ups all around, the capital investment required to be TSMC are country national budget level so they can't go that low.
The end of Moore's law has long been predicted to be not technical but rather that eventually new nodes get too expensive.

A bit early but if we had the wafer prices, yields and die sizes we could get an idea of the min price they could be sold for, or at least compare them to this gen.

Chuk_Chuk · 13 Jul 2022 at 15:25

KompuKare said:
Do we have any info on TSMC's 5nm and 4nm wafer prices?
I know demand is lower now, but while we all decry the huge mark-ups all around, the capital investment required to be TSMC are country national budget level so they can't go that low.
The end of Moore's law has long been predicted to be not technical but rather that eventually new nodes get too expensive.

A bit early but if we had the wafer prices, yields and die sizes we could get an idea of the min price they could be sold for, or at least compare them to this gen.

I think it is impossible to get exact figures or even ball park figures as these will be trade secrets and will differ from company to company.

Murphy · 13 Jul 2022 at 16:47

KompuKare said:
Do we have any info on TSMC's 5nm and 4nm wafer prices?

Like Chuk_Chuk says you'll never get an exact figure but some analysts estimated it around $17k but on it's own that's pretty meaningless as (afaik) we don't know how many working dies they'd get from one 300mm wafer, the same analysts estimated a cost of $238 per chip but that could be way off or pretty close.

arknor · 13 Jul 2022 at 17:04

KompuKare said:
Do we have any info on TSMC's 5nm and 4nm wafer prices?

its not a set price, it depends whos buying and how much

KompuKare · 13 Jul 2022 at 17:08

Well from before volume, this article had an estimate of under 0.1 per cm² (yes that's a non-SI unit!).

‘Better Yield on 5nm than 7nm’: TSMC Update on Defect Rates for N5

www.anandtech.com

And that's also the default on this calculator:

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caly-technologies.com

Gives us these figures:

Yields for volume manufacturer should be better than that but packaging etc. also cost. More complex packaging like the 3D stacking will costs a fair but.

Combat Fighter · 13 Jul 2022 at 19:20

JediFragger said:
4nm products are going to be a fair more expensive to produce (and more vRam!), so I'd personally expect the 4070 to be in the £550ish area...

Still seems a good deal if it spanks a 3090ti :cool:

Alan McFall · 13 Jul 2022 at 19:41

Zarax said:
From current gen I'd buy a 6700xt for <500€ or a 6700 non xt nof <450€, everything else is either too expensive or going to be obsolete too soon for my tastes.

Obsolete too soon ? My 3060ti beats 6900xt in Ezbenchmark (EU5 benchmark) by 15% according to the benchmarks on this forum.. if that's any type of indication..

CuriousTomCat · 13 Jul 2022 at 19:52

KompuKare said:
Do we have any info on TSMC's 5nm and 4nm wafer prices?

The prices are based on quantity bought. Nvidia is able to buy 5x as many wafers as AMD because Nvidias market share is 5x as big. So Nvidia will get a really good deal with TSMC and sell them for a really high price. AMD will pay much more per wafer and they'll be expected to sell them cheap because of their supposed inferior driver reputation etc.

KompuKare · 13 Jul 2022 at 20:49

CuriousTomCat said:
The prices are based on quantity bought. Nvidia is able to buy 5x as many wafers as AMD because Nvidias market share is 5x as big. So Nvidia will get a really good deal with TSMC and sell them for a really high price. AMD will pay much more per wafer and they'll be expected to sell them cheap because of their supposed inferior driver reputation etc.

Er? Is there a (sarc) missing?
Nvidia only make GPUs.
AMD make CPUs as well, and on 7nm they were one of TSMC's biggest customer while Nvidia only had their non consumer parts on TSMC and used the far cheaper Samsung for the gaming cards.
Not the kind of behaviour that's likely to have gotten them preferential treatment for their return to TSMC.
Plus, AMD also had all the consoles on TSMC 7nm too.

JediFragger · 13 Jul 2022 at 21:29

KompuKare said:
Not the kind of behaviour that's likely to have gotten them preferential treatment for their return to TSMC.

Don't need favour when you have truckfulls of moneh

Nvidia is set to spend at least $10B to secure its share of limited 5nm chip supply

Do you take cash?

www.pcgamer.com

Murphy · 13 Jul 2022 at 21:58

While they maybe paying a load of money they're not in the top three customers, that's Intel, Apple, and AMD in third. Reduced demand effects AMD far less as they can dynamically change up their allocation between GPU's and three different CPU market segments (Servers, HEDT, and consumer).

JediFragger · 14 Jul 2022 at 01:04

Murphy said:
that's Intel, Apple, and AMD in third

Verified source of your information rather than heresay? Thanks.

Jay85 · 14 Jul 2022 at 01:26

3090/3090ti price crash! Even ocuk's site has shown quite a shift in price unless it was like that before?

TNA · 14 Jul 2022 at 02:01

Jay85 said:
3090/3090ti price crash! Even ocuk's site has shown quite a shift in price unless it was like that before?

They are still far too expensive. We all know there is a high probability that these cards performance will be mid tear next gen. So what do you get for all the extra money you pay, some extra useless vram that will hardly ever be used?

The 4070 will probably (hopefully) have better RT performance also and cost less than half the price. Also it is well known that Nvidia mainly optimise for whatever their current gen is when new games come out. Plus let's be honest, we all like the latest shiny cards

Zarax · 14 Jul 2022 at 06:41

Alan McFall said:
Obsolete too soon ? My 3060ti beats 6900xt in Ezbenchmark (EU5 benchmark) by 15% according to the benchmarks on this forum.. if that's any type of indication..

I checked the 3060ti and it's roughly the same price as the 6700xt in Italy.
I must admit it's pretty competitive as value proposition (better RT VS more RAM) but in my experience I estimate the AMD card is going to degrade in performance more gracefully than the NVIDIA one.

Murphy · 14 Jul 2022 at 06:58

JediFragger said:
Verified source of your information rather than heresay? Thanks.

Apologises as i think i mixed up current largest customers (5nm) with predicted future customers (3nm), it was late. (Source)

The report also alleges that Intel will go all-in with TSMC’s 3nm process node. Team Blue will supposedly tap into the node to manufacture its GPUs as well as certain CPUs in 2023. So much so that the chipmaker is expected to become TSMC’s second-largest client, next to only Apple, pushing AMD to the third position in the foundry’s book.

JediFragger · 14 Jul 2022 at 08:06

Murphy said:
it was late.

No probs man, we have to call out the bulls***ters here as there's lots of them

KompuKare · 14 Jul 2022 at 09:07

JediFragger said:
Verified source of your information rather than heresay? Thanks.

Well, @CuriousTomCat's claim was the bit which needed verified sources (or rather taking GPU marketshare and ignoring all CPUs especially since gaming Ampere is made by Samsung was not correct)!

These things are obviously "trade secrets", and a lot of time leaked or guessed via paid "analyst reports.
However, this Semi Wiki forum post had a 2019-2021 chart:

TSMC's Top Customers 2019-2021

Not a big surprise but it will be interesting to see how much of a bump Intel will see at 3nm. I'm also guessing Mediatek will jump up a bit as well.

semiwiki.com

I'm actually surprised that after Ampere Nvidia's share was still so high. GA100 (the 54 billion transistor, 800+mm² monster made on TSMC's 7nm) was their only TMSC 7nm part. Guess they also still had some TSMC 14nm parts.
So that forum post table is leaked from some paywall thing.
Statista has different figures:

TSMC: revenue share of leading customers 2021 | Statista

In 2021, Apple was the largest customer of the Taiwanese semiconductor foundry TSMC, contributing a quarter of the company's revenues.

www.statista.com

Considering the sheer volume of consoles, 5% seems low for AMD unless the revenue is booked separately as I'm unsure what Sony's 2.5% includes, but Microsoft isn't in that list.
And then there

TSMC’s largest customer makes up 26% of revenue - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

(this story was also report by TechPowerUp):
"Last year, TSMC’s second-largest customer contributed NT$153.74 billion to its sales, accounting for 10 percent of the chipmaker’s total, company data showed.
Analysts said they suspect the customer was Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD).
TSMC’s data indicated it was the first time sales from its second-largest customer rose to 10 percent of its total sales. "