Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

[Harold lloyd]

Hi everybody,
I thought I would put in a post of why inflation is going to keep up and create a new normal in the world.
I know lots of you are sitting on the side lines waiting for a big drop in GPU prices before buying but the days of getting a decent GPU for £500 or £700 are well gone, expect to pay £1k+ for decent and £2k+ for top end.

1. inflation isn't something that just goes up a few points per year when it really appears there is a huge
surge which goes on and on

2. the commodities upcycle is only getting started=inflation

3. the US has trillions in debt, they don't have the money to pay bond holders so the fed and treasury will keep interest rates down and inflate their dollar to try and inflate away the debt=inflation.
Once inflation appears and surges like you seeing now they are *NOT* going to raise interest rates to combat it but keep inflation running high which is in their interests! (and what do you think BOE will do here in the UK!) what you'll get in a short space of time is a currency devaluation not just US/UK but globally.

4. You may know I'm predicting all 3 major US stock markets to go over finally during the last few months of this year. Now this will be the first of the major bubbles to pop followed by the housing bubble a bit later. As the huge bubbles pop you're going to get more currency devaluation=inflation!

5. GPU shortages/prices are just the tip of the iceberg, once you see the surge of inflation go into food and everyday items then its time to be worried.

See what happens in a few months and Prepare for the biggest financial event of your lifetimes!

Regards, Harold

 

[Harold lloyd]

Pretty much, and if all that wasn't enough then these past few years have amply demonstrated how willing people are to pay more for GPUs. Plus everything exciting that's on the horizon in terms of new tech looks to be ever more expensive (MCM, faster memory/wider configs, >400w targets => req. better components etc.), heck even with Ampere/RDNA 2 looking so good on paper it's really only the higher end cards that looked that way, but the highest end got more expensive (3090 et al) and the middle end has stagnated too (3060 & lower), while low-end has been almost unchanged for 5 years now (RX 480/GTX 1060 tier). Then there's a bunch of other factors as well that will also add on top to it (component shortage medium-term etc), so overall the situation isn't going to change for the better any time soon. High prices are the new normal for most of the '20s.

Yes agree, 3060 isn't much of a step up from 2060Super, high end has great improved performance but sky high prices.
Yep semiconductor shortage for the next few years compounding things.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Mate if the global stock market amd housing bubbles pop like you are predicting the price of graphics cards will be the least of problems for people

Well the economy won't tank straight away after stocks pop but you will see inflation creep up and the housing bubble I'd give 1 to 3 years before it pops, it will be like a mirror of what happened to Japan at the start of 1990.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Once the shortage is over, prices will fall towards MSRP.

You're right about that but I'm predicting about 3 years when GPU supply meets demand.

 

[Harold lloyd]

He does seem very invested in advising people to buy GPUs at today's prices. Call me a cynic, but you have to wonder why.

I'm not telling people to buy GPUs, I'm saying get positioned for some big changes in history, get positioned for big financial events appearing soon.
I don't invest much anymore, I retired in my late 30s as I did so well in trading.

 

[Harold lloyd]

There is a large inflation risk in our Western economies due to money printing and the run up in debt due to Covid support mechanisms. The hope is that the economy rebounds sufficiently to capture some growth, but not too much to push inflation. The central banks do not want short term high inflation. They will want to deflate debt eventually, but the target would be to allow the power of compounding to work to slowly erode the debt. However, we are just one shock away from a big financial market hit

What I have learned from my many years on this planet (with a Masters in Economics and Economic History) is that guessing the timing is a mugs game. I was convinced the dot com bubble was a bubble and would crash horrifically. I was right, but I was also out by 3 years! 3 years! That was 3 lost years of investment.

A lot of the inflation will be caused by the commodities shortages for 5 years or more, the money printing will put a tail wind onto that.
You're right very few traders can time the market correctly, 99%+ of them should leave it alone.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Pricing was where it was due to a balance between cost to produce and what the consumer can afford. What the consumer can afford hasn't changed. Cost to produce will return to where it was due to competition.

You think Intel will save the day with their GPUs?
Everyone knows what Intel prices are like, Lol!
I doubt competition will have a significant GPU price reduction this time around.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I am not knowledgeable enough economy etc but if it's GPUs we are talking about shouldn't there be a big wave of incoming 2nd had GPUsthe moment this "mining boom" explodes? And wouldn't those 2nd hand GPUs "eat" some of the next gen graphic cards Nvidia and AMD market? Nvidia 2XXX cards sold less than usual due to the market flooded with "cheap" 1xxx cards if I am not mistaken.

Yep second hand mining cards would eat up some of the demand but the demand is GODZILLA like with millions of Geforce gamers wanting to upgrade.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Not intel. If ppl can't afford they will not buy. that's how it works.

Yeah it's the same in Venezuela if they can't afford food they skip meals.
Huge demand=some desperate people will buy the miniscule stock at some point.

 

[Harold lloyd]

What I'm seeing a lot of is bundle offers with motherboard and so on that's just madness.

A good marketing play, they are trying to sell more stuff while the GPU shortage lasts.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Does the OP have several GPUs to offload?

Nope only my GTX 1060sc and after 5 years its still selling at £180 on ebay!
Decided to keep it in my old PC in case my main PC gets faulty.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I never mentioned Intel. AMD/Nvidia won't be selling GPUs that people can't afford.

I thought you were referring to Intel?
I think most of of the expensive GPU stock will be shifted at some point as there are plenty of desperate people out there, its not that different to what happens in the stock markets when prices go high.

 

[Harold lloyd]

There are lots of reasons why GPUs are expensive at the moment but you seem to have missed nearly all of them.

Do you mean semiconductor shortage? What else?
Anyway I'm telling people to get positioned for what's incoming.

 

[Harold lloyd]

He paid £700 for a 6700XT so probably seeking justification.

Yep paid a bit over the top for the performance, but still happy with it after a few months.

 

[Harold lloyd]

Lol - FT reports "GPU price hikes are key indicator for upcoming world financial events"

I do agree with OP though that the price of everything is going up - but we all know that already surely??

I'm not talking about a few points increase in yearly inflation I'm referring to a huge surge in inflation NOT seen for decades.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I would wager that there are more people who set limits on their spending, than people who are "desperate" for a new GPU to game on, and would buy in at any price.

e: Or people whose wives set limits on their spending

Yep you're right about that but the demand is GODZILLA like so there's still a huge pool of people who will lose their heads and raid their bank accounts or credit cards.
About 90% of the market is about emotion not rational thinking.

I was close to cracking the other day and pay £1200 for a 3080 Auros but I stopped myself. So glad that I did as stock is creeping up and you can find them kicking around.

Yep just like in the real markets people tend to crack and buy even as the price has gone up high, Why? *TO AVOID MISSING OUT OF COURSE*!

The only thing incoming is one of the Dons telling you to sort your signature out.

If you can not even get your signature correct I suspect your understanding of upcoming economic events is more than a bit limited.

Signature sorted!
"your understanding of upcoming economic events is more than a bit limited" Well only one of us can be correct, we'll see a few months on from now who wins this bet.
Here's my prediction again, all 3 US stock indexes (s&p/nasdaq/dow jones) will fall for the final time as the buyers dry up, could be early next year but I'm sticking to this year.
Either way only a matter of months left.

Who cares? Its just graphics cards to play stupid, time-wasting games.

You'll care all right if this translates into a food shortage.

This is a good read too:- https://semiengineering.com/bumps-vs-hybrid-bonding-for-advanced-packaging/

Part taken from that article Bumps Vs. Hybrid Bonding For Advanced Packaging, The full article is very good.



End of Moore’s Law?
For decades, the IC industry has attempted to keep pace with Moore’s Law, doubling the transistor density in chips every 18 to 24 months. But starting a decade ago, at 20nm, chipmakers began replacing planar transistors with finFETs because the gate structure on smaller transistors was insufficient to control current leakage. Transistors continued to leak after devices were turned off, which continued to drain batteries.

Intel introduced finFETs at 22nm in 2011, using what it called a Tri-Gate structure to control leakage at three points in the “off” state, and allow more current to move through when the vertical gates were opened in the “on” state. Foundries followed with finFETs at 16/14nm.

But finFETs also are more complex, driving up design and manufacturing costs. The cost to design a 7nm device is roughly $217 million, compared to $40 million for a 28nm chip, according to Handel Jones, CEO of IBS.

For chips at 7nm and below, the power and performance benefits have started to diminish, leaving many to realize that developing an SoC isn’t always the right solution. “A monolithic die approach forces a one-size-fits-all solution, which is not optimal,” said Walter Ng, vice president of business development for UMC.

So the industry is looking at alternatives, such as advanced packaging, which promises to address several issues in systems. For example, vendors can break up a large SoC into smaller chiplets and incorporate them in a package, creating an advanced system-level design. “Therefore, the system can be optimized by using the best processor components with an optimum performance/cost process node,” said Xiao Liu, senior program manager from Brewer Science, in a paper at the IEEE Electronic Components and Technology Conference (ECTC).

For this and other applications, there are several ways to integrate chips in packages, such as fan-out. In one example of fan-out, a DRAM die is stacked on a logic die in a package.

2.5D is another option. In 2.5D, dies are stacked on an interposer, which incorporates through-silicon vias (TSVs). Another option is 3D-ICs, where logic-on-logic or logic-on-memory are stacked in a 3D-like package.

None of these technologies will replace traditional SoCs, but they can be used to supplement them. In fact, leading-edge chips often are incorporated in advanced packages. The package boosts the performance of the design.

Going forward, there is some uncertainty. Chipmakers are ramping up 5nm chips, with 3nm and beyond in R&D. It’s hard to predict when, but at some point traditional chip scaling will falter. When that occurs, the industry will need help from packaging to stay on the roadmap. That’s why the chiplet model is important. In one futuristic scenario, vendors may integrate chiplets in 3D-like packages, creating system-level designs that mimic a traditional SoC.

Nonetheless, there are many packaging options today with bumps and other interconnect schemes. Now, hybrid bonding is in the mix. So what’s the best option?

Yes a good read there about Tec going forward.

GPU prices have already dropped from their highest level, just seen a 6700xt in stock at £650, so easily possible to get a decent GPU for less than £700. Plus if you have a decent GPU to sell it might be overpriced itself in the current market and selling it might make the final price reasonable, ie I sell my Vega 56 for £200, buy the AIB card for £650 = final price of £450 for decent AIB 6700xt. I am still going to wait for prices to drop further before I do buy though, despite your opinion, as I have always bought my gpu at end of life for a discount

By decent I meant 6800xt/3080.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I don't think people will actually pay those prices. Sure the enthusiasts will but the average person will not. They may pay a little more, but I think what they are far more likely to do is lower their expectations to meet their wallet. I know that I am already thinking in terms of doing that. Enthusiast I may well be, but there is no way in hell I am paying 1K for a graphics card that is only 30% better than my last one. I will just delay buying one until the cost/performance meets my requirement! If that means I have to get a lower spec card then so be it. If that means I have to get a lower spec card and wait for the generational increase in performance, say series 4000, then so be it. And I can't help but think that many other gamers will be the same. They will buy what their budget affords, not what NVIDIA demands. This is especially the case if the economy nose dives. No one will be able to justify that money on a graphics card.

A lot of average people will lose their heads for fear of missing out and raid their bank accounts and go over budget, that's how real markets work.

We heard all this when people had convinced themselves to pay £1500 for a 2080ti. Then I bought a 3080 for £649 (£100 less than I paid for the 1080ti it replaced, which I had purchased 3 years earlier). Nine months later, I picked up a 3060ti for £349.

The reason GPUs are changing hands for £1000's isn't down to the level of US national debt, it's because ill informed desperate people keep buying them at that price.

If the financial doomsday scenario you're predicting comes to pass, I seriously doubt that people will start panic buying GPUs for 4 grand.

Most read multiple reviews before getting a GPU, products become *MUCH* more attractive when there is a shortage, high price takes a back seat, that's how the brain works.

A cursory glance at a popular auction site would suggest that GPU prices are indeed descending apace. Plentiful stock, average final selling price likely also lower. Hold your nerve, people. Now isn't the time to snatch at a GPU.

When then? When the 4000 series arrives? Then shops will be removing the 3000 series from the shelves.

Food is essential, a GPU is not.
You can also hold a GPU much longer if you stay at 1080.
You can also buy a console and skip buying a GPU for many years to come.

Yea I used to game 1080p a lot but after getting a 4k monitor and spending a few weeks at 4k its life changing, *NO WAY I'M GOING BACK!* less fps but cinematic image quality.
Just like Half life Alyx was life changing when using VR.

The problem with current GPU prices has multiple reasons, a perfect storm for PC gamers. Even before the current supply/demand issues Nvidia have been charging ludicrous prices for their top tier GPUs for years and people paid them. So why would Nvidia or AMD be incentivised to stop releasing jokes like the 3090, 3080Ti or 6900 XT?

Normally when supply meets demand ideally we should be able to get GPUs like the 3080 and 6800 XT at MSRP. Or the same for the GPU stacks below them because a 6700 XT or 3070 should be ~£400 cards according to MSRP. The reason they are not is supply and demand and because people think an £800 RTX 3070 or 6700 XT are worth the asking price. They moan they are overpriced, yet buy them anyway and are actually part of the problem. So I see prices dropping more than they currently are, but about £150 above MSRP. I also see the MSRP rising in the future. So those people who demand a £300-£400 mid range GPU (1070 or 5700XT level) are going to need to accept it's no longer a thing.

The real market is taking over and setting the prices, MSRP is just fiction now. Remember the market is bigger than central banks or governments.
They buy them due to fear of missing out you can't change human nature.

You should become a TA expert with this prediction vagueness.

Not at all vague, shortly after the stock markets pop then just 1 to 3 years (more likely 2) the housing bubble will pop. Housing still has a bit further to run but not very long.
Anyway stock bubble popping will mark a important change in history just like when the roman empire started falling.

No way a 3070ti is worth £760.

Its worth more in peoples eyes and brains when there is a shortage.

Yeah so as I said, 6800 performance and price scales perfectly with a 6700 XT - costs about 20% more and about 20% more performance (at the quoted £750 for a 6700 XT). So I don’t get how the earlier poster believes a 6800 is great value over a 6700 XT. It isn’t.

And it’s actually even better than that for the 6700 XT - as you say £680 was doable this week, vs. £900 for a 6800. +20% performance for +25% cost… No thanks!

As long as I can get 35+ fps in 4k on my 6700xt then its smooth enough to play, 60fps or 120fps won't make it any more enjoyable. The programmers are getting to the limits of what you can do with raster rendering anyway, more texture/geometry not much more they can add. I'll wait until a real powerhouse RT card appears before getting a expensive card.

 

[Harold lloyd]

What's supposed to happen then?

Also do you have a fully-stocked bunker?

The real economy won't unravel straight away, inflation will pick up, then as housing and other bubbles pop things will speed up like out of nowhere with mass jobs being lost and currencies collapsing and shortages across the board sort of like Godzilla appearing from the waves! Things can change real quick like going over a cliff edge.
Yep quite a bit stocked and ammo too! But need to put in a lot more work there.

 

[Harold lloyd]

I'm assuming that's a dig at someone like me. Tell, oracle, what should someone like me do in this situation? Just a regular gamer with a pig old PC looking for a new one with money in my hand to spend.

Just sit around and wait? 1 month? 6 months? Another year?

Spend my money?

Yeah I'd buy now and enjoy gaming entertainment for the next 2 or 3 years.
There's not much further programmers/devs can go with raster tech, we've just about reached the limits so MS have gone on to RT but it'll be around 3 or 5 years before we get monster GPUs to output high quality RT.
Spend about £750 max on a GPU (Don't buy £900 or £1K+ GPU), get a decent CPU and 16GB mem and your good to go.
I mean if you pay £250 more than you wanted for a GPU, there's not much you can do with £250 in todays world, it'll seem like a drop in the bucket compared to 3 years of fun and gaming entertainment.
Even if a few months later price drops £200 you won't be looking back, you can't put a price on good times. You'll be gnashing your teeth like I was paying £700 for a 6700xt but a few days later I diddn't really
care as I was having such a great time.

A lot of average people will lose their heads for fear of missing out and raid their bank accounts and go over budget, that's how real markets work.

Normal people will not care, they mainly buy a prebuild pc.

Big price tags on the prebuild nowadays if they have the latest GPUs.

 

[Harold lloyd]

im enjoying my xbox series s to care about gpu rices atm, when they go back to normality, then will buy, a series s is a perfect and cheap stop gap imo

Good strategy you got there, are you a pro trader?!
Yes wait until 4000 series when low end 4060 is 3080 performance then buy at a cut price with improved RT!

All this is to do with how our financial markets work. It's not the amount of money you make which is important but the rate of change in margins. Apple once had its shares fall because even though it made record margins and profits, analysts predicted more. These are the same lot which precided over the dot-com crash and subprime. Hence no amount of margins is enough. It's massively speculative and always causes boom and bust.

These companies have gotten very greedy and it might be their downfall.Lots of computing purchases on a personal and business level have been pushed forward due to the pandemic. This means there is no guarantee in a few years demand increase will be as high. So the big issue is when demand slows down and the problems catch up with tech companies.

It also is the root cause of too big to fail too. Companies get so obsessed by share price they lose focus - it's what is happening to Intel. The reality is mobile phones, tablets and consoles generate over 70% of all gaming revenue.

So if AMD and Nvidia want to play silly buggers with pricing people will just use other devices for their gaming fix,or things like game streaming.

It's different this time around, you have doctors, brick layers, taxi drivers getting in the markets and that basically spells the end. The buyers will dry up eventually and the whole thing will fall back to earth, the
FED will step in but NO GO just like happened to Japan's Nikkei January 1990.

AMD, NVIDIA aren't the culprits, basically the markets have taken over and are setting their own prices. Markets are bigger than governments and central banks.