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Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

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a pair of glasses and a smile grim outlook on the pricing and availability of graphics cards for the foreseeable future.

Great sense of humour! Got me laughing.

Saw your post literally a few minutes before a meeting with my fin management co.

Outlined points 1 - 4 - to which they pretty much fell about laughing.

So theres that.

We'll I'm early retired as I made so much from trading, you and your people *work*, who's the one really laughing now?
Let's see a few months down the road who wins this bet.

You were much more fun when you were on after Grange Hill Harold :cool:

Yeah remember that about tea time UK, my parents watched it every evening so I watched it too. :)
 
They are the culprits in this case and exploited the scenario despite all the PR. I told people for the last 5~10 years,AMD/Nvidia/Intel are increasngly looking at enthusiasts as a high margin market,and were using it to subsidise other forays.For years Intel and Nvidia jacked up prices but spent billions subsidising Atom and Tegra.

Once you saw stuff like the Titan,I could see where it was heading. People here argued for the price rises.They supplied miners directly now and during previous boons,which reduced consumer supply. OEMs can get parts such as the RTX3060 fine,and that is why you can get laptops for well under £1000 with one - the RTX3060 cards you buy,actually have less shaders than the laptop version.

AMD prioritised consoles over CPUs and GPUs. Due to Huawei being booted off 7NM,AMD has far more supply than they expected. However,they made a decision to sell lower margin consoles instead. They even added extra console wafer supply in 2H 2020.Nearly 70~80% of all AMD 7NM wafer supply went to consoles IIRC. They even admitted recently they want to sell only higher margin CPU/GPU parts. They could have chosen to sell less consoles,but decided that PC enthusiasts are now a higher margin market,so they restricted supply by design.

Both also have jacked up the prices of the parts they sell to AIB partners- you can see that by their record margins and profits on GPUs. They are making massive margins on their parts.
Tech channels have even said that even before the current problems,graphics card AIB partners were being charged more and more by AMD/Nvidia meaning their margins have gotten smaller and smaller.Nvidia makes a significant amount of revenue from their gaming side,and are at record levels.Nvidia have screwed over its AIB partners before - just look during the Fermi times at XFX!

The fact is they have helped somewhat engineer this crisis,by making sure they restrict supply,and hence it drives up prices and margins on their part. They are simply asking way too much for the parts they sell. The OEMs also get hit,as they can't afford to make the cards at the false RRPs,which are there for marketing purposes. But supply is hardly "small" - you can see between them both they shipped a lot of GPUs.

So the fault is entirely on AMD/Nvidia looking at enthusiasts as cash cows. After all OEMs,console makers,all seem to get far more supply and parts much cheaper than we do. AMD/Nvidia can't push Sony/MS/Nintendo/Apple/Dell/HP too far,so the margins are lower.

But someone has to pay for massive multi billion purchases such as Xilinx and Mellanox right??

So they might as well get idiot gamers to throw money at stuff,and make the rest of the margins,together with business/commercial sales.I don't blame them when they see so many idiots throw money at microtransactions,buy quarter completed early access games and buy gamergirl bathwater,and throw money at half naked Twitch Streamers.

They look at enthusiasts as easy money fools now. Its a total inversion of what it was like 20 years ago. People are just in denial - AMD/Nvidia/Intel now treat gamers like Apple treats anyone who is not willing to pay more - a pointless customer. PCMR hasn't understood the change. AMD/Nvidia want their ever increasing margins and they would rather lose sales,then lower the margins. Apple has basically implied the same thing.

Anyone who was a mainstream gamer has seen the utter stagnation over the last 5~6 years,and the stealth price increases. Only now are the "high-end" gamers now seeing the problems when the prices have gone past what they are willing to pay. Covid or no Covid,this trajectory has been happening for years. Or did you think Turing was a fluke?? There was no mining boom,or money printing like we have now. Yet Nvidia jacked prices up,and they made yet another record year of profits and margins.

Gamers are to blame for this scenario - they voted with their pockets,every year. The same for PC games - reheated rubbish making billions each year,so you get half completed rubbish. If consumers stopped acting so weak,and actually didn't indulge these companies things would improve. But like a drug addiction they can't,and AMD/Nvidia/Intel/favourite game company are the drug dealer.

Covid and the mining boom just pushed it along quicker. This is why consoles,smartphones,etc are now the mass market gaming platforms for the average person.


Yes some really good points there, you've dug into the background important details.:)
Yes I remember that when the 2080Ti was announced with a unusually big price tag.
I didn't realise they were doing marketing tricks and inflating their prices, I traded commodities like copper, iron ore etc and that sort of thing does not happen there when you look at miners important details.
On the surface I see the choke in supply to gamers letting the market is set prices as it sees fit with the huge demand from gamers - old headline but still relevant https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/z...-waiting-a-month-for-delivery-if-theyre-lucky

I'm still seeing a massive difference between supply and demand whatever the causes and fabs aren't going to built in a year or two to meet demand so sticking to my prediction of no significant price drops.
 
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3080 ti ftw ultra.. $1399 (dollars). Previously they were well over $2000.

I'm taking it as a good sign.

Keeping my eye on things.

So far, "the prices are here to stay" is not going your way Harold.

There could be a drop up to 25% max but not large like 50% or more from todays prices.
Anyway as the first big bubble pops in a few months things will turn into a one way street for inflation, plus with the commodity shortages leading the way.
 
Teach me oh wise one, I want that early retirement :(

We'll most of my family and relatives got degrees and became professionals and made decent money and worked until retirement age.
I was going to be a chemical engineer but dropped my place at Uni and somehow got into trading, worked my butt off for over 10 years and invented methods of my own,
then in my late thirties decided to pack it all in as I had become wealthier than family/relatives enough that I wouldn't have to work again.
Basically if you're willing to give up most of your life for about 10 years (not much time to spend with your family or partying) and build some kind of business like trading
and think out of the box and go over and above then I'm sure you'll make enough to retire.
 
I'm assuming that's a dig at someone like me. Tell, oracle, what should someone like me do in this situation? Just a regular gamer with a pig old PC looking for a new one with money in my hand to spend.

Just sit around and wait? 1 month? 6 months? Another year?

Spend my money?

Oh yeah I forgot to say you got to take time off to party.
£250 saved will only get you a gourmet meal at a high class restaurant.
Why wait 6 or 12 months just to save a bit of cash when you could be partying with your new GPU right now! :cool:
 
Hang on, your retired in your late 30s as you you did so well at trading, then why both to come on a forum and talk about a GPUs which in the main are a few hundred quid more the MSRP. I have a friend who is still a trader in his mid 40s and wouldn't couldn't care less if GPUs went to £5K he'd just buy if he wanted it and not bat an eyelid. Something smells fishy with Harold..... :rolleyes:

Remember I have been programming in 3D with MS DirectX for over 20 years and play/program games. GPUs are just the start of shortages, its going to be a shortage based inflation thing with money printing causing a further tailwind. Be warned though the clock starts ticking for real when the first big bubble bursts.
 
Can I make the suggestion that the OP doesn't try getting into weather forecasting as a career, might not pan out too well.

Man you people kill me with your jokes! :D

ts a daft title tbh, prices will always come down after a mining boom and when supply issues sort themselves out

When will supply get anywhere near demand? :confused:
 
We would like them to insta-perfect like that but think about it, AMD find it hard to prize the mindshare away from nvidia sheep. Maybe a tuber influencer will shill some cards for them, but even semi-educated pc build folk would take a bit of massaging away from the existing two brands. Then you have the drivers.

AMD struggle against the masses as they are falsely tainted by 'the drivers' phenomenon. If you think intel will be any good at drivers, I wont be holding my breath for them!

For 2021 at least, intel wont be doing much for enthusiasts that's for sure.

The AMD drivers are great this time, as someone whose been using Intel/Nvidia for last 5 years a switch to Amd/Amd has been fine no real driver problems.
I don't think the old Amd driver issues will hold many back from buying a 6000 series Amd card.
 
Cryptocurrency miners are also playing a big part in prices/ shortages by buying up any stock as soon as it hits the shelves.

Yes crypto miners are buying a lot of cards but there should be enough supply for them and gamers and then some. Stores in previous years were packed with GPUs whatever the buying action was.
 
Well some would consider a meal at $250 a serious waste of money. Not much of a return on my investment ;)

I've paid pretty close (well compared to many others) to RRP for a 3060, so I'm pretty happy with that now. Happy gaming to me.

A meal isn't an investment, your paying for a one time good time, like going to watch a movie.

Didn't realize you had a 3060, it has great performance at 1080p and with 12GB should run new games for the next 2-3 years. :cool:
 
Worst value card out there. The 6800 is barely any more money and is just sooo much better.

1. I only play games at 4K (hate dropping down to 1440p or 1080p)
2. Look at the difficult 4k games like Watch Dogs Legion and Metro Exodus its only about 10 fps more for 6800 and that is hardly noticeable.
3. 35fps+ is enough for a smooth experience, you don't need 60 or 120fps every game, super image quality over fps any day.
4. Raster rendering is going nowhere fast, its nearing a dead end so logically MS are moving on to RT so why pay a premium of ≈£200 for the 6800 or higher GPU when its not necessary?
5. I'm a 20 years+ DirectX programmer, I know what to turn off to get a fps boost like ugly ambient occlusion effects etc.
6. You need too go back to the drawing board and look at data under the microscope not through a wide angle lens. :D
 
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People are kidding themselves if they think 35fps is enough on PC. It's a slide show in a FPS.

Play MSFS at 35fps 4k its plenty good.
35fps+ is just as good against AI if you want a cinematic experience, don't get me wrong I play CSGO at 200+ fps when playing competitively but NOT for a cinematic experience and lower than 4k.
 
Only 10fps is a BIG difference at 4k. 35fps and 45fps feel vastly different with 35fps definitely not being a smooth experience. Even the consoles are moving away from 30fps now.

I used the tuner to alter the clocks on my 6700xt to test your theory, 35+ seems smooth enough on ghost recon wildlands and f1 2020 and others, I can't detect any jerky motion? 45fps+ seem about the
same, nothing noticeable. 60 fps+ is a bit smoother but nothing major.
Consoles had that cheap slow hardware, but still was playable at 30 fps, now they are getting faster hardware due to tech/prices filtering down.
 
There is a thing called brand premium, that alone is going to make it unlikely we will see future significant price drops.

We might see cards get closer to MSRP if supply and demand balance improves, but dont expect much more then that.

Yep brand premium, they got all these funky designs, coolers, rgb etc, you have to pay a premium for all that.
 
1. I only play games at 4K (hate dropping down to 1440p or 1080p)
2. Look at the difficult 4k games like Watch Dogs Legion and Metro Exodus its only about 10 fps more for 6800 and that is hardly noticeable.
3. 35fps+ is enough for a smooth experience, you don't need 60 or 120fps every game, super image quality over fps any day.
4. Raster rendering is going nowhere fast, its nearing a dead end so logically MS are moving on to RT so why pay a premium of ≈£200 for the 6800 or higher GPU when its not necessary?
5. I'm a 20 years+ DirectX programmer, I know what to turn off to get a fps boost like ugly ambient occlusion effects etc.
6. You need too go back to the drawing board and look at data under the microscope not through a wide angle lens. :D

Basically I'm saying don't spend on a monster card right now (unless you want 120fps or whatever), buy mid-range and should last next 2 years when you'll want to upgrade if monster RT performance cards appear.
Its the same ol same ol with raster rendering, devs are bringing *NOTHING* new to the table. RT is still primitive and doesn't offer much apart from a gimmick.
Look at games like Cp2077, WDL, MSFS 2020 and Metro Exodus which push the high end GPUs, all devs have done is increase scene complexity that is more triangles/textures with a bit of colored/neon light on top, which eat up Vram and push the GPU, but its the same ol thing we've gotten for the last 5 years or so.
Not worth spending big money on yet in my opinion.
 
Sorry but that makes no sense. 35fps is 35fps regardless of if thats a GT710 or an RTX3090. Gsync or Freesync may smooth that down and while it is playable, the fact you find it smooth does not make it smooth. I would say a vast majority of the people on these forums will agree 35fps is not smooth and 60 is a lot different.

Yeah agree 60 is a bit smoother and noticeable, but I'm still going to play at 4k 35+ fps rather than 60fps+ by dropping down to 1440p.
Movie like image quality is much more important to me than 1440p where many pixels are missing from the rendered textures compared to a 4k screen.
 
6700XT saw another $100 dollars of the in store price today and is $829.
3070Ti is $799 (Can't remember the previous price now).

Mind you... A friend posted 'container prices' from Shanghai. They are absolutely insane now. (I can only assume they are high from Taiwan as well).

You people in the US are getting some heavy discounts. Nothing like this in the UK, just checked the latest prices.
 
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