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Why GPU prices are NOT likely to drop significantly EVER!

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a pair of glasses and a smile grim outlook on the pricing and availability of graphics cards for the foreseeable future.

Great sense of humour! Got me laughing.

Saw your post literally a few minutes before a meeting with my fin management co.

Outlined points 1 - 4 - to which they pretty much fell about laughing.

So theres that.

We'll I'm early retired as I made so much from trading, you and your people *work*, who's the one really laughing now?
Let's see a few months down the road who wins this bet.

You were much more fun when you were on after Grange Hill Harold :cool:

Yeah remember that about tea time UK, my parents watched it every evening so I watched it too. :)
 
Hi everybody,
I thought I would put in a post of why inflation is going to keep up and create a new normal in the world.
I know lots of you are sitting on the side lines waiting for a big drop in GPU prices before buying but the days of getting a decent GPU for £500 or £700 are well gone, expect to pay £1k+ for decent and £2k+ for top end.

1. inflation isn't something that just goes up a few points per year when it really appears there is a huge
surge which goes on and on

2. the commodities upcycle is only getting started=inflation

3. the US has trillions in debt, they don't have the money to pay bond holders so the fed and treasury will keep interest rates down and inflate their dollar to try and inflate away the debt=inflation.
Once inflation appears and surges like you seeing now they are *NOT* going to raise interest rates to combat it but keep inflation running high which is in their interests! (and what do you think BOE will do here in the UK!) what you'll get in a short space of time is a currency devaluation not just US/UK but globally.

4. You may know I'm predicting all 3 major US stock markets to go over finally during the last few months of this year. Now this will be the first of the major bubbles to pop followed by the housing bubble a bit later. As the huge bubbles pop you're going to get more currency devaluation=inflation!

5. GPU shortages/prices are just the tip of the iceberg, once you see the surge of inflation go into food and everyday items then its time to be worried.

See what happens in a few months and Prepare for the biggest financial event of your lifetimes!

Regards, Harold


I thought this was what people were saying before the GPU madness, but then people then went and started paying £2.5k for GPUs
 
It's different this time around, you have doctors, brick layers, taxi drivers getting in the markets and that basically spells the end. The buyers will dry up eventually and the whole thing will fall back to earth, the
FED will step in but NO GO just like happened to Japan's Nikkei January 1990.

AMD, NVIDIA aren't the culprits, basically the markets have taken over and are setting their own prices. Markets are bigger than governments and central banks.

They are the culprits in this case and exploited the scenario despite all the PR. I told people for the last 5~10 years,AMD/Nvidia/Intel are increasngly looking at enthusiasts as a high margin market,and were using it to subsidise other forays.For years Intel and Nvidia jacked up prices but spent billions subsidising Atom and Tegra.

Once you saw stuff like the Titan,I could see where it was heading. People here argued for the price rises.They supplied miners directly now and during previous boons,which reduced consumer supply. OEMs can get parts such as the RTX3060 fine,and that is why you can get laptops for well under £1000 with one - the RTX3060 cards you buy,actually have less shaders than the laptop version.

AMD prioritised consoles over CPUs and GPUs. Due to Huawei being booted off 7NM,AMD has far more supply than they expected. However,they made a decision to sell lower margin consoles instead. They even added extra console wafer supply in 2H 2020.Nearly 70~80% of all AMD 7NM wafer supply went to consoles IIRC. They even admitted recently they want to sell only higher margin CPU/GPU parts. They could have chosen to sell less consoles,but decided that PC enthusiasts are now a higher margin market,so they restricted supply by design.

Both also have jacked up the prices of the parts they sell to AIB partners- you can see that by their record margins and profits on GPUs. They are making massive margins on their parts.
Tech channels have even said that even before the current problems,graphics card AIB partners were being charged more and more by AMD/Nvidia meaning their margins have gotten smaller and smaller.Nvidia makes a significant amount of revenue from their gaming side,and are at record levels.Nvidia have screwed over its AIB partners before - just look during the Fermi times at XFX!

The fact is they have helped somewhat engineer this crisis,by making sure they restrict supply,and hence it drives up prices and margins on their part. They are simply asking way too much for the parts they sell. The OEMs also get hit,as they can't afford to make the cards at the false RRPs,which are there for marketing purposes. But supply is hardly "small" - you can see between them both they shipped a lot of GPUs.

So the fault is entirely on AMD/Nvidia looking at enthusiasts as cash cows. After all OEMs,console makers,all seem to get far more supply and parts much cheaper than we do. AMD/Nvidia can't push Sony/MS/Nintendo/Apple/Dell/HP too far,so the margins are lower.

But someone has to pay for massive multi billion purchases such as Xilinx and Mellanox right??

So they might as well get idiot gamers to throw money at stuff,and make the rest of the margins,together with business/commercial sales.I don't blame them when they see so many idiots throw money at microtransactions,buy quarter completed early access games and buy gamergirl bathwater,and throw money at half naked Twitch Streamers.

They look at enthusiasts as easy money fools now. Its a total inversion of what it was like 20 years ago. People are just in denial - AMD/Nvidia/Intel now treat gamers like Apple treats anyone who is not willing to pay more - a pointless customer. PCMR hasn't understood the change. AMD/Nvidia want their ever increasing margins and they would rather lose sales,then lower the margins. Apple has basically implied the same thing.

Anyone who was a mainstream gamer has seen the utter stagnation over the last 5~6 years,and the stealth price increases. Only now are the "high-end" gamers now seeing the problems when the prices have gone past what they are willing to pay. Covid or no Covid,this trajectory has been happening for years. Or did you think Turing was a fluke?? There was no mining boom,or money printing like we have now. Yet Nvidia jacked prices up,and they made yet another record year of profits and margins.

Gamers are to blame for this scenario - they voted with their pockets,every year. The same for PC games - reheated rubbish making billions each year,so you get half completed rubbish. If consumers stopped acting so weak,and actually didn't indulge these companies things would improve. But like a drug addiction they can't,and AMD/Nvidia/Intel/favourite game company are the drug dealer.

Covid and the mining boom just pushed it along quicker. This is why consoles,smartphones,etc are now the mass market gaming platforms for the average person.
 
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They are the culprits in this case and exploited the scenario despite all the PR. ...

I tend to agree. Despite all the "we are on the side of the gamers" the truth is that NVIDIA has done absolutely nothing to help gamers in this situation. I am certain that a large company like NVIDIA could have come up with something to help the gamers, but the simple fact is, it was not in their short term interest to do so. Their biggest market is the miners. Sure, it's unstable, and NVIDIA need the stability of the gamers market, but in some ways that makes it even worse for the gamers. That instability means that demand can rise and fall at the drop of a hat, and when demand is high NVIDIA needs to send every card it can in the direction of the miners because tomorrow the demand may have gone. Screw the gamers, the demand is always there so they can wait. Thing is, though, gamers are getting really angry, and looking for people to blame for this. Sooner or later this total lack of concern for the gamers could backfire on NVIDIA.
 
I tend to agree. Despite all the "we are on the side of the gamers" the truth is that NVIDIA has done absolutely nothing to help gamers in this situation. I am certain that a large company like NVIDIA could have come up with something to help the gamers, but the simple fact is, it was not in their short term interest to do so. Their biggest market is the miners. Sure, it's unstable, and NVIDIA need the stability of the gamers market, but in some ways that makes it even worse for the gamers. That instability means that demand can rise and fall at the drop of a hat, and when demand is high NVIDIA needs to send every card it can in the direction of the miners because tomorrow the demand may have gone. Screw the gamers, the demand is always there so they can wait. Thing is, though, gamers are getting really angry, and looking for people to blame for this. Sooner or later this total lack of concern for the gamers could backfire on NVIDIA.

It's this obsession with increase in margins our busineses have. They will now give up volume if that volume is lower margin. But it also means it enables new competition to enter the market. These companies are going to get a rude awakening once all the free furlough money in Europe/US goes away and people now have to go back to work,and have less free time. Also that effect of consumers and businesses having pushed purchases forward,which will eventually affect increase in demand.

Samsung and Apple were doing the same with smartphones,ie,jacking up prices,hardly improving features,and barely caring about mainstream markets.

Then Chinese companies came along and from the bottom upward innovated more in cameras,and had excellent value entry level and mainstream smartphones. Apple and Samsung were forced to improve. The same happened with
with Japanese cars and electronics, etc. They beat many western companies because they were not so focussed just on short term margins,and simply you gave you more for your money.

Nvidia/AMD don't care because there are enough desperate idiots who will pay the price. Just like all the people who complain about microtransaction filled,low effort AAA games. However, these still sell in huge amounts,cost even more upfront and make huge amounts on top with microtransactions. So the whales ruin it for everyone.

If you are a gamer and actually does not want to pay through the nose then use a console or phone is what AMD/Nvidia are telling you essentially.
 
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I don't blame them when they see so many idiots throw money at microtransactions,buy quarter completed early access games and buy gamergirl bathwater,and throw money at half naked Twitch Streamers.

They look at enthusiasts as easy money fools now. Its a total inversion of what it was like 20 years ago. People are just in denial - AMD/Nvidia/Intel now treat gamers like Apple treats anyone who is not willing to pay more - a pointless customer. PCMR hasn't understood the change. AMD/Nvidia want their ever increasing margins and they would rather lose sales,then lower the margins. Apple has basically implied the same thing.

Yes this is the reality. It also triggers a memory back in 1999 I had a conversation with my brother about CPU's, he basically explained to me how the roadmaps laid out a conveyor belt of trickled out improvements designed to milk the consumer. It has not been as milking of late, but there was certainly a period where every couple of years you bought a new 'upgrade' for a predictable 20% uplift (with intel you also had to get a new mobo). This demonstrates how they treat consumers as mugs fooling you into thinking you need that better component, but most sheepled there way, this was like the early PCMR period before the current mainstream sheeple wave.

Luckily when you get other distractions in life and age a bit, you dont upgrade every other year and for me anyway it more like a five year thing if I can be bothered.

Anyone who was a mainstream gamer has seen the utter stagnation over the last 5~6 years,and the stealth price increases. Only now are the "high-end" gamers now seeing the problems when the prices have gone past what they are willing to pay. Covid or no Covid,this trajectory has been happening for years. Or did you think Turing was a fluke?? There was no mining boom,or money printing like we have now. Yet Nvidia jacked prices up,and they made yet another record year of profits and margins.

Have to agree, if I mention this its usually taken as a biased miner view but these examples - like with covid, cant blame the lack of consoles available on the miners.. it the new system suckering folk into paying higher prices for products they don't really need.

If they 'cared' they could have a 6700XT or a 3060 that uses DLSS/FSR to offer budget gamers performance for a fixed price of £300 and let the enthusiasts pick up the Ti's and meaty cards for whatever they are willing to pay.
 
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Yes this is the reality. It also triggers a memory back in 1999 I had a conversation with my brother about CPU's, he basically explained to me how the roadmaps laid out a conveyor belt of trickled out improvements designed to milk the consumer. It has not been as milking of late, but there was certainly a period where every couple of years you bought a new 'upgrade' for a predictable 20% uplift (with intel you also had to get a new mobo). This demonstrates how they treat consumers as mugs fooling you into thinking you need that better component, but most sheepled there way, this was like the early PCMR period before the current mainstream sheeple wave.

Luckily when you get other distractions in life and age a bit, you dont upgrade every other year and for me anyway it more like a five year thing if I can be bothered

Considering I hear gamers repeating the same marketing points that marketeers make, it shows the big issue we have with our hobby now. Things such as overclocking and modding came out of value orientated gamers who didn't want to keep handing over more money to companies. Hence why you had parts like the Celeron 300A,pencil mods,unlockable shaders,etc. It was the reason why companies like AMD,Cyrix,etc entered the market - people didn't want to pay ripoff prices. There was a much higher technical knowledge bar to becoming a gamer back then,so you had to have some clue about things unlike now.

Now that PC gaming is more popular you simply have less aware people now with zero self control. The market is basically going to move back to like it was in the 1980s and early 1990s when a powerful PC cost £1000s in today's money,and only a few had one.

The mainstream pc will eventually be taken over by smartphone/tablet like devices in another decade. They will be the equivalent of the Commodore,Zinclair,etc. Most people will be priced out and generations will just bypass traditional PCs. A lot of that push will happen especially in middle income and third world countries. It's already starting to happen now.

It's not a fluke smartphone/tablet/console gaming makes more money and why companies are trying their best to make game streaming to work. It wouldn't surprise me if renting games this way becomes the norm.
 
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Now that PC gaming is more popular you simply have less aware people now with zero self control. The market is basically going to move back to like it was in the 1980s and early 1990s when a powerful PC cost £1000s in today's money,and only a few had one.

Much so.

I think the other addition to these points is the enthusiast hobby like in the 80s where people will buy a device like the pi as its cheap and experimental. You don't need a £1500 'gaming rig' to do clever programming and this you could argue is only using a PC for one dimensional tasks (that could be done on a console/tablet etc,).

I am all for a powerful home computer to do multiple tasks, you should be able to custom build your own on a budget. The change in demographics is the new shift, society is very much pick up and play and cannot or wont invest any time in problem solving, learning, creativity so microsoft for example will take the easy route and make an OS designed for faceroll setups and offer less and less customisation (as the users get worse and worse).
 
Much so.

I think the other addition to these points is the enthusiast hobby like in the 80s where people will buy a device like the pi as its cheap and experimental. You don't need a £1500 'gaming rig' to do clever programming and this you could argue is only using a PC for one dimensional tasks (that could be done on a console/tablet etc,).

I am all for a powerful home computer to do multiple tasks, you should be able to custom build your own on a budget. The change in demographics is the new shift, society is very much pick up and play and cannot or wont invest any time in problem solving, learning, creativity so microsoft for example will take the easy route and make an OS designed for faceroll setups and offer less and less customisation (as the users get worse and worse).
It's already happening with Windows 11 being dumbed down,and being more hardware restricted,or Windows 10 having random changes forced on it. Mainstream Linux is going to increasingly take over the hobbyist market IMHO, especially as even gaming seems more viable with things such as Proton and Lutris.
 
It's already happening with Windows 11 being dumbed down,and being more hardware restricted,or Windows 10 having random changes forced on it. Mainstream Linux is going to increasingly take over the hobbyist market IMHO, especially as even gaming seems more viable with things such as Proton and Lutris.

Using your highlight about the smart phones.. this is apparent too with everyone expecting an 'app for that' thanks to apple! Again another example of people want minimal interaction with getting things done and understand zero of how it all works. You will end up with Billions of users and only a thousand devs with the capacity to create/maintain them. :cry:
 
Using your highlight about the smart phones.. this is apparent too with everyone expecting an 'app for that' thanks to apple! Again another example of people want minimal interaction with getting things done and understand zero of how it all works. You will end up with Billions of users and only a few million devs with the capacity to create/maintain them. :cry:

Fixed that for you.
 
Fixed that for you.

In the context of the devs that were about have either retired or moved on in their career (programming changes language, stagnates etc.). Discounting the devs that can print "hello world" to output as these are not developers. :)

Maybe this will be the new construction worker jobs and people will leave school to fix/maintain and maybe build more apps.. but judging by the lack of appetite who knows.
 
In the context of the devs that were about have either retired or moved on in their career (programming changes language, stagnates etc.). Discounting the devs that can print "hello world" to output as these are not developers. :)

Maybe this will be the new construction worker jobs and people will leave school to fix/maintain and maybe build more apps.. but judging by the lack of appetite who knows.

Technically that could happen in some specific niches (COBOL for example) but overall the number of developers has been skyrocketing, although I concede most of them actually work with relatively simpler stuff, be it Javascript frameworks or Python, but then 20 years ago a huge number of programmers were doing mostly Visual Basic.

From my limited point of view programming will likely split in 2:

1) The mass of simplified programming done mostly by calling pre-made libraries, will be likely integrated in visual tools (if you work with Data take a look at Alteryx to see what I mean)

2) Specialist programmers working with lower level languages, the ones actually writing the libraries and working on high performance/security code, they will still resemble what we currently know as software developer stereotype but remain in relatively smaller numbers

Depending on the business need, you can get a suprising lot done with option number 1 as long as they are paired with/cohordinated by domain experts.

As for GPUs, I suspect that sooner or later performance/power will stagnate, forcing some functions to be moved to a dedicated card, in a way bringing us back to 3DFX Voodoo times.
 
Using your highlight about the smart phones.. this is apparent too with everyone expecting an 'app for that' thanks to apple! Again another example of people want minimal interaction with getting things done and understand zero of how it all works. You will end up with Billions of users and only a thousand devs with the capacity to create/maintain them. :cry:

Idiocracy was more prophetic than we think! Why does the app not work?? The computer says no!! Why does the computer say no?? The app does not work!!:cry:
 
3080 ti ftw ultra.. $1399 (dollars). Previously they were well over $2000.

I'm taking it as a good sign.

Keeping my eye on things.

So far, "the prices are here to stay" is not going your way Harold.
 
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