Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

Neil79

Neil79

Neil79

Caporegime
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Ooops I forgot to make the yearly Winter thread! So here goes

The First forecast for Autumn/Winter has appeared on TWO


Forecast overview
The forecast headline is for a slightly milder than average autumn. However, there is considered to be an increased chance, relative to the norm, of cold snaps developing during the second half of November. Rainfall levels are most likely to be close to the norm, with wetter than average slightly more likely than drier than average.

November
Temperature:

Slightly below average

Precipitation

Close to average

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions lead to showers or longer outbreaks of rain and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central areas. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north, but temperatures should be close to or slightly above average.

Second half

Changeable weather is likely in all areas, so wet and windy spells can be expected at times. Despite that, there is considered to be an increased chance of cold snaps. Therefore, the risk of frost and snow is higher, particularly in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures below the average.
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Although that's Autumn, it does mention colder incursions and snow later half of November

Gavs Winter Forecast



It was also a rather cool/cold Summer, with a lack of sunshine and proper summer heat

- Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'
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www.netweather.tv

Met Office Data Reveals Nuanced Picture of UK's 'Coolest Summer Since 2015'

A look at the August and Summer 2024 climate data across the UK. Sunshine hours, rainfall amounts and Mean temperatures. The main summer heat has been focused away in southeast Europe.
www.netweather.tv www.netweather.tv
 
Oh and last night for September "Coldest ever night recorded here at this time of year....25 years of records! 4.8c/NE Brighton"

:eek:
 
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I have a horrible feeling that we are going to have a bad winter up here this year. It's been a mostly cold summer and this week has been bloody freezing, mostly around 8 degrees during the day with a awful wind chill and last night we got down to 3.4 degrees. There is even snow on the Cairngorms right now and I can't remember the last time there was fresh snow at the begining of September. We haven't really had a bad winter since 2010 so are well overdue one.
 
pastymuncher said:
I have a horrible feeling that we are going to have a bad winter up here this year. It's been a mostly cold summer and this week has been bloody freezing, mostly around 8 degrees during the day with a awful wind chill and last night we got down to 3.4 degrees. There is even snow on the Cairngorms right now and I can't remember the last time there was fresh snow at the begining of September. We haven't really had a bad winter since 2010 so are well overdue one.
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Yep, feel it in my bones :p

Heating has been coming on the last couple of mornings, that's a couple of weeks earlier than last year.
 
Lots of word like, expected, likely, and possible. In other words they haven't got a clue.

Here's my predictions, it'll likely be cold at times, there'll probably be an increased risk of snow as we progress through the winter. It will also possibly be windier than average. See anyone can be a long-range weatherman!
 
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Of course its going to be mild and wet because thats how winters are these days. Seasons in this corner of the world seem to have reduced to just two two june-september is warm to very warm with occasional hot spells and september - may is mild and wet with occasional chilly spells, like now.
 
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pastymuncher said:
I have a horrible feeling that we are going to have a bad winter up here this year. It's been a mostly cold summer and this week has been bloody freezing, mostly around 8 degrees during the day with a awful wind chill and last night we got down to 3.4 degrees. There is even snow on the Cairngorms right now and I can't remember the last time there was fresh snow at the begining of September. We haven't really had a bad winter since 2010 so are well overdue one.
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There isn't the energy lingering currently which has worked against recent winters, but so much seems to need to come together to make it come off in this country lately.

The longer range models seem to be showing significant cold pooling just off the UK in November with a chance of a front loaded winter, but tend to lean towards fairly meh conditions - mild and wet muck - through the rest of the winter currently.
 
robfosters said:
Aren’t log burners actually bad for your health long term?
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Modern (enclosed) ones properly installed and maintained shouldn't be a significant health hazard directly, though if you live in an area where a lot of people have them like I do then they do increase the particulate matter, etc. in the air which likely has a knock on effect which it comes to things like asthma like conditions, etc.
 
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