Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

Only two drivers but they seem to correlate to a -NAO pattern during Dec-Feb.

A -NAO increases the likelihood of colder weather across the UK & NW Europe.

There are signs that this developing La Niña will be east based, i.e coldest anomalies in the east Pacific which may allow for stronger MJO cycles through the Maritimes & into the west/central Pacific, something cold weather fans want but something that needs further observation.

This MJO progression will lead to more positive AAM tendency which in turn supports slower, more blocked patterns across the Arctic/Atlantic.

Early days & we need to watch the MJO to see how this current cycle & indeed the next cycle behaves through October.

We also need to monitor the developing stratospheric vortex in the coming months, a major driver of our weather patterns during the winter.
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3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect
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www.severe-weather.eu

3 Signs that Winter 2024/2025 could be Colder than you might expect

A colder than expected Winter 2024/2025 could develop over the United States, Canada and Europe, based on the 3 Oceanic and Atmospheric signs
www.severe-weather.eu www.severe-weather.eu


Some more updates
 
3.2 Degrees C last night and the temperature is dropping quickly now as well. Wifey is whining about putting the heating on and I may actually cave in this time. It's usually off until well into October yet it has already been on for a couple of nights in July!!
 
pastymuncher said:
3.2 Degrees C last night and the temperature is dropping quickly now as well. Wifey is whining about putting the heating on and I may actually cave in this time. It's usually off until well into October yet it has already been on for a couple of nights in July!!
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It's nuts. Normally hold out till October. When internal temp says 17c that's when I put it on. It said 17c for a bit tonight but it's just after up to 18c.

I adjusted out 2 uPVC doors the other day which didn't feel like they were closed last winter with the draft coming through.
They tighten against the seal now.

We have a bay window that leaks. I'm going to rip the roof off it this weekend and put kingspan insulation tip and bottom then refit the leading roof. (Loads of bay windows just have a piece of ply top and bottom.

We also have an old coal house wooden door on the side of the house which lets loads of heat out.
Going to rip that off and make a door. Wooden frame with kingspan in the middle, tongue and groove outside and sheet of ply inside. Sandwich together glue and screw.

Trying everything I can to keep heat in a 1950s house.
 
Looking ideal next week, today wasn't bad after dropping the garden waste off at Tintagel

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Scraping ice of this morning was a wtf moment for sure.

Had the heating on for a few hours before the little one went to bed as it felt freezing!

Getting married in a few weeks....so no doubt expect horrendous winter weather to arrive soon as I'm jinxed like that.

You don't have to thank me.
 
alchal said:
Scraping ice of this morning was a wtf moment for sure.

Had the heating on for a few hours before the little one went to bed as it felt freezing!

Getting married in a few weeks....so no doubt expect horrendous winter weather to arrive soon as I'm jinxed like that.

You don't have to thank me.
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Hah, I got married on March 27th many moons ago, and it snowed! :p
 
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