Wordle ** WARNING: THERE ARE PROBABLY HINTS TO THE DAILY WORD IN HERE **

robcat101 said:
Without wishing to suck the fun out of Wordle, I’d be interested to see if a statistician/programmer has crunched the numbers. If you follow a logical system, I presume in the long term there must be a trend to about median of 4 guesses. 5 if you’re less disciplined.

Clearly there’s a one in 3000-odd chance of getting a 1 but that’s pure luck; a 2 has to be an inspired guess; and I think 3 must require a bit of luck if your 2 opening words don’t hit targets.

Ironically, my worst performances have been when I’ve had 3 or 4 greens eg the recent *IGHT - I had 4 guesses on the first letter, and nearly lost. (As someone pointed out, the correct strategy is to try and eliminate the other consonants using words without the known green letters, but I can’t resist trying my luck!).
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I use a logical system, but one I made up around how my brain works, so the first two words generally are always the same, this yields in most cases 3-4 letters, but I hover just under or just over an average of 4 guesses. I've improved because the more you do it, the more common groupings of letters leap out, and where their could be multiple lettters, if it's 3 or more, I generally burn a word with as many of those letters to eliminate or find the right one.

Still, you aren't sucking the fun, there are so many ways to cheat at Wordle, you just look at those regularly getting it in '2' with 'lucky' guesses and pretty much it's a cert they are cheating, the red flag is those with long term averages under 3 are always cheating, Its not statistically possible to do that without a degree of luck that could be sold for many millions.. (e.g. https://www.poirrier.ca/notes/wordl... can,for their respective objective functions.)

Even the best algorithms aren't that good, I'm following a few and doing my own computational solutions to it and I've not seen anything yet that gets close to an average of 3 guesses.. I've seen two that seem to manage 3.3 over a longish term, but actually when run over the entire known wordle dictionary are still over 3.4.

I find that part interesting because my goal is simply to write a software solution that is better than I can personally do 'manually'.. I'm not there yet but admit that's just due to my relative lack of experience/intelligence..
 
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In 4 today, so a bit more than recently!

:(:(:(:(:D
:(:D:D:(:D
:(:D:D:D:D
:p:p:p:p:p

MOIST
FLEET
BLEAT
:p:p:p:p:p
PLEAT
 
Got lucky today. Lots of correct letters in my first guess but that left a lot of options so still lucky to get it in 3
:mad::mad::D:D:D
:mad::mad::D:D:D
:D:D:D:D:D
 
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