No, it's just there are more people around to be killed, more building to be knocked down and faster news and more understanding around the globe. Generally it's not the "gods getting angry" anymore, people realise it's an earthquake.
Icelandic Volcanic Eruption - Significant Disruption to UK Flights
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No, it's just there are more people around to be killed, more building to be knocked down and faster news and more understanding around the globe. Generally it's not the "gods getting angry" anymore, people realise it's an earthquake.
It's a bit like earthquakes, scientists can tell where pressure is building up and can predict that an eruption/quake is "likely" in the nearish future but that's about it at the moment. It's only approximations of the available data.
Mmmmm, giant fondu!
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http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/info_1990s.php
Admittedly they have grown steadily in the past 20 years if you look at the numbers of quakes per year in 2008 there was double the amount of quakes that there was in 1990, but the majority of them were minor quakes, but pretty much every year in the past 20, there has been at least 1 big quake. Unfortunately that site doesn't have anything prior to 1990, but I'm sure you can dig something up, and there quite probably is going to be a growth\decline in them over time...
Yup, and just like people sometimes they will build up and build up then nothing will come of it, or they won't seem that bad and suddenly something will tip them over the edge and they just explode without warning, aka St Helens which exploded like it did because fo a seismic tromor tha set one side of the volcano in movement, releasing some pressure, and like a lemonade bottle exploded.
What are you on about?
Earthquake levels have been broadly the same for ages, just look at past events, such as San fransisco in the early 20th century. Same with Volcanoes, Krakatoa and Santorini that destroyed the Minoan Civilisation around 4k years ago.
at the end of the day i have my opinions and you have yours, god ppl get ratty on this thread just cause ppl have an opinion.
The problem with those datasets is that they are only short term ones, you really want ones that go back a few hundred years at least with 10-100 year groupings. You also need to consider increases in tech over the last 20 years.
There's probably a few papers on this somewhere, may have to have a quick look and see.
There's probably a few papers on this somewhere, may have to have a quick look and see.
at the end of the day i have my opinions and you have yours, god ppl get ratty on this thread just cause ppl have an opinion.
I'm not meaning to get ratty, just find it very odd that people who seem to have no understanding of the actual data and events make odd statements like yours.
Instead of reading ATS have a read of some reputable papers instead.
ok a lot of data here regarding the katla volcano
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-03=&volpage=erupt last 2 being a subglacial eruption in 1999, interesting.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-03=&volpage=erupt last 2 being a subglacial eruption in 1999, interesting.
Where they any other subglacial eruptions like the 1955 and 1999 events between 1755 and 1918?
A day of **** head pilots. Constant call out's because "The fan blades have volcanic ash on them"
Which was pretty impressive as the ****ing aircraft hadn't flown and had been blanked up or stored in a hanger.
Or they wouldn't fly because the fan had dust on it, until it was wiped off. Our aircraft are generally filthy, this filth has magically turned to OMG volcanic ash.
Which was pretty impressive as the ****ing aircraft hadn't flown and had been blanked up or stored in a hanger.
Or they wouldn't fly because the fan had dust on it, until it was wiped off. Our aircraft are generally filthy, this filth has magically turned to OMG volcanic ash.
Are the pilots really making the shots here?
I understand they do check the aircraft over before flight, do they have final say?
Edit: What do you do?
each of the historical eruptions had subglacial eruptions, however in 1955 and 1999 there was no explosive eruption, the question is why is that?
even going back to 1177 there was explosive eruption all way through to 1918, could the last eruption in 1918 caused something in the crater who knows.
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They can choose to not take an aircraft but If it's for something we consider servicable and we can provide evidence and documentation to back up why it's servicable and they still won't take it they can expect a 'chat'.
It's well known that at Ryanair you won't have a contract for long if you do this too often.
Too many pilots when they are getting close to the cut off for their hours will try to stall so they can then say, I'm not flying I'm out of hours.
found this
found this
The Katla caldera is located under the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap and is one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Iceland due to major jökulhlaups that accompany eruptions. Subglacial geothermal activity is manifested in several 10-50 m deep depressions (ice cauldrons) within and at the caldera rim and the total geothermal heat output is of the order of a few hundred megawatts. A shortlived but powerful pulse in geothermal heat output took place in 1999, probably including a minor subglacial eruption, when new ice cauldrons formed in three places and an unexpected jökulhlaup occurred. Following these events, a comprehensive monitoring program was set up for Katla, including ice surface elevation profiling from aircraft, to monitor variations in geothermal heat and detect signs of subglacial water accumulation. A radar altimeter coupled with a kinematic GPS is used, achieving an absolute elevation accuracy of 3 m and internal consistency of 1-2 m. Profiles across the caldera are flown twice a year. An annual accumulation-ablation cycle in surface elevation with amplitude of 5-10 m is observed. By removing this cycle from the data, changes due to subglacial geothermal activity are obtained. After the events in 1999, a decline in geothermal activity was observed. In 2001-03 some ice cauldrons expanded and deepened by 10-15 m, indicating renewed increase in geothermal activity. This trend is also apparent for 2003-05. The increase in geothermal poweramounts to a few tens of megawatts. It is likely that the increased thermal output is related to increased seismicity and caused by magma inflow.
found this
The Katla caldera is located under the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap and is one of the most hazardous volcanoes in Iceland due to major jökulhlaups that accompany eruptions. Subglacial geothermal activity is manifested in several 10-50 m deep depressions (ice cauldrons) within and at the caldera rim and the total geothermal heat output is of the order of a few hundred megawatts. A shortlived but powerful pulse in geothermal heat output took place in 1999, probably including a minor subglacial eruption, when new ice cauldrons formed in three places and an unexpected jökulhlaup occurred. Following these events, a comprehensive monitoring program was set up for Katla, including ice surface elevation profiling from aircraft, to monitor variations in geothermal heat and detect signs of subglacial water accumulation. A radar altimeter coupled with a kinematic GPS is used, achieving an absolute elevation accuracy of 3 m and internal consistency of 1-2 m. Profiles across the caldera are flown twice a year. An annual accumulation-ablation cycle in surface elevation with amplitude of 5-10 m is observed. By removing this cycle from the data, changes due to subglacial geothermal activity are obtained. After the events in 1999, a decline in geothermal activity was observed. In 2001-03 some ice cauldrons expanded and deepened by 10-15 m, indicating renewed increase in geothermal activity. This trend is also apparent for 2003-05. The increase in geothermal poweramounts to a few tens of megawatts. It is likely that the increased thermal output is related to increased seismicity and caused by magma inflow.
1918 12th October 24 days
1860 8th May 20 days 58 years to next eruption
1823 26th June 28 days 37 years to next eruption
1755 17th October ~120 days 68 years to next eruption
1721 11th May ~100 days 35 years to next eruption
1660 3rd November ~60 days 61 years to next eruption
1625 2nd September 13 days 35 years to next eruption
also notice the trend that it erupts between 30 - 60 years in the months between may - october this could be where surface heating causes the glacier to melt, making the possibility for magma to push through
1860 8th May 20 days 58 years to next eruption
1823 26th June 28 days 37 years to next eruption
1755 17th October ~120 days 68 years to next eruption
1721 11th May ~100 days 35 years to next eruption
1660 3rd November ~60 days 61 years to next eruption
1625 2nd September 13 days 35 years to next eruption
also notice the trend that it erupts between 30 - 60 years in the months between may - october this could be where surface heating causes the glacier to melt, making the possibility for magma to push through
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well done dave, i hope your right sort of, if you know what i mean.
but i dont want it to happen !