The next Conservative Leader thread.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:44

Freakbro said:
This seems a correlation not causation argument?

If it fluctuated the same way on a daily basis last week then it's hard to attribute the same 'minor' fluctuations today on TMs announcement

sometimes it is dubious to attribute market moves to news stories, it doesn't seem to be the case in this instance - it had dropped 0.8% over the course of the morning then spiked upwards when the rumours started about Leadsom dropping out before lunch

significant move in the context of a longer time frame? Nope... but that wasn't what was claimed... despite one poster seemingly trying to create a straw man out of that

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:46

n111ck said:
I see the £ is up following today's news.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:49

dowie said:
sometimes it is dubious to attribute market moves to news stories, it doesn't seem to be the case in this instance - it had dropped 0.8% over the course of the morning then spiked upwards when the rumours started about Leadsom dropping out before lunch

significant move in the context of a longer time frame? Nope... but that wasn't what was claimed... despite one poster seemingly trying to create a straw man out of that

Correlation =/= causation. You will see the same "spike" on most other days, even without noteworthy news.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W

The actual increase from the highest point at around 6am this morning (before any of this was announced) is 0.002%...

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:51

Jono8 said:
Correlation =/= causation. You will see the same "spike" on most other days, even without noteworthy news.

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1W

I'm not seeing an upwards spike like that anywhere else in the last week on that chart... and actually moves like that aren't really every day things but do tend to be news related... post brexit there is clearly a bit more volatility

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:57

dowie said:
I'm not seeing an upwards spike like that anywhere else in the last week on that chart...

What? Or are you now going to argue how long it has to take to go up a bit to constitute a "spike". It has been up and down in one day last week more than it has today.

and again the actual increase from the highest point at around 6am this morning (before any of this was announced) is 0.002%...rather insignificant.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:57

Jono8 said:
The actual increase from the highest point at around 6am this morning (before any of this was announced) is 0.002%...

what does '6am' have to do with anything? The comment was merely commenting that it was up 'today' and if you're interested in the move you ought to look at where it was immediately before that news came out

Again I have to ask what exactly are you arguing against? I did ask previously but you ignored the question.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 19:58

Jono8 said:
What? Or are you now going to argue how long it has to take to go up a bit to constitute a "spike". It has been up and down in one day last week more than it has today last week.

and again

no I'm just saying I've not seen a upward move like that on the chart you've presented... :confused:

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:01

dowie said:
no I'm just saying I've not seen a upward move like that on the chart you've presented...

6th July?

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPUSD=X&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

It takes a bit longer granted but that is an even bigger upward trend. I am not going to get in an argument over the semantics of how many minutes or hours it has to "spike" in your view though as that is stupid.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:03

not exactly semantics though is it

though I'll ask for a third time:

dowie said:
Again I have to ask what exactly are you arguing against? I did ask previously but you ignored the question.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:06

dowie said:
not exactly semantics though is it

though I'll ask for a third time:

You know full well. You rather disingenuously claimed that the pound is "up". If up means in the realms of 0.0XX or even 0.00X percent then fine, wonderful, but I don't see what that had to do with the thread, especially when as pointed out correlation =/= causation. I admit you never actually attributed it to the tory leadership race originally but that was assumed seen as you are posting it in the thread about the conservative leader - If you weren't trying to insinuate TM become PM was the reason, why were you even posting that in here?

You also never clarified in your original post what you were comparing it to. Saying "up today" doesn't mean "up compared to 10am" it could just as well mean "up today compared to last week". As I said, "up" is a comparative term so perhaps you should have clarified it better. What you meant to say is "the pound went up a little bit at one point today, possibly because of this - it is now however only ever so slightly above what it was in the early hours of the morning though"

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:11

Jono8 said:
You know full well.

I don't for sure so I'm asking you to clarify what you're arguing against? If you can't even clarify that then you're a waste of time.

You rather disingenuously claimed that the pound is "up".

it is - that is simple fact - currently up by 0.37% - I also mentioned that the FTSE is up

If up means in the realms of 0.0XX or even 0.00X percent then fine, wonderful, but I don't see what that had to do with the thread, especially when as pointed out correlation =/= causation ( although I admit you never actually attributed it to the tory leadership race originally but that was assumed seen as you are posting it in the thread about the conservative leader)

again I pointed out previously that you'd got your figures out, you're again referring to 0.00X percent but you're out by a rather large order of magnitude!

we're talking about a move of greater than 1% from prior to the news release (retracing a 0.8% fall in the morning) or currently 0.37% on the day as of the time of this post...

according to you a move like that happens on most days... in reality it major currencies don't tend to move by >1% in such a short time period for no apparent reason

are you going to clarify what exactly you're arguing against?

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:15

dowie said:
are you going to clarify what exactly you're arguing against?

I already have. Talking about today only ( as that is what you want to talk about and is apparently all you were talking about) the pound against the dollar is now only 0.002% higher than the previous highest point TODAY before the news.

That is all I need to say and all there is to say.

If that is "up" to you and worth posting about then good for you I guess.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:17

Jono8 said:
I already have. Talking about today only ( as that is what you want to talk about and is apparently all you were talking about) the pound against the dollar is now only 0.002% higher than the previous highest point TODAY before the news.

Perhaps innumeracy is the issue here - I've corrected this a few times... (for the third time - check your decimal place!)

And yet you still haven't clarified what you're arguing about - other than posting dodgy percentages.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:18

dowie said:
Perhaps innumeracy is the issue here - I've corrected this a few times...

And yet you still haven't clarified what you're arguing about - other than posting dodgy percentages.

I am comparing the highest point today BEFORE Leadsom stepped down (~1.29751 early hours of the morning) and the point it is at now (~1.3 though it was less when you made your comment - I'm being generous

). I am not measuring the spike as that is meaningless.

Edit yes sorry, ~0.2% so slight numeracy issues

. - still negligible

In fact though, when you made your comment, the GBP to USD rate was actually LOWER than the highest point earlier in the day before the announcements.

Amp34 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:21

Well it looks like the country just took another lurch to the right wing Authoritarian side.

I guess it's the better of the two, at least it didn't lurch to the far right.

Makes me wonder now if UK citizens outside the country will also have to queue up to get their microchips implanted, so the government knows what we are thinking and doing at all times.

Amp34 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:26

Robbo said:
May seems surprisingly keen to get us out of the EU, I thought she liked it...

Don't go, Dave.

Annoyed Dave has essentially had a hissy fit because he lost, he shouldn't have campaigned so vigorously in the first place.

She never liked it. It got in the way of all her authoritarian beliefs.

She sided with remain for political reasons, which is one of the reasons she was basically invisible during the campaign. She didn't want to campaign because she didn't actually believe in it.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:26

Jono8 said:
They aren't dodgy. I am comparing the highest point today BEFORE Leadsom stepped down (~1.29751 early hours of the morning) and the point it is at now (~1.3 though it was less when you made your comment, I'm being generous ). I am not measuring the spike as that is meaningless.

again - you're highlighting your own innumeracy as you don't seem to be able to calculate percentages(I seem to have pointed it out several times but you're out by a couple of decimal places!)... still again - what is the point you're trying to make, what are you arguing against?

GBP and the FTSE is up on the day was the comment made... and in terms of the reaction we're looking at, that spike upwards, then it is the price immediately before the news that would be relevant... GBP dropped all morning and after the news it retraced that drop in a short period of time and ended up higher on the day - the comment was that it was up on the day... your argument seems to be that it is up a bit compared to some other point this morning - though I'm still no clearer on what you're arguing against?

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:29

dowie said:
again - you're highlighting your own innumeracy as you don't seem to be able to calculate percentages(I seem to have pointed it out several times but you're out by a couple of decimal places!)... still again - what is the point you're trying to make, what are you arguing against?

GBP and the FTSE is up on the day was the comment made... and in terms of the reaction we're looking at then it is the price immediately before the news that would be relevant

Yes I realise I was naffing up the percentages. It has been hard to keep track of what I am calculating because it is going up again since you made the comment

Regardless, when you made the comment and I called you out on it, both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR were LOWER than the highest point earlier in the day before these announcements.

That was my problem with what you said, if you want to use today as your only comparison.

What would have been true, is that the pound spiked up a bit in the few hours following these announcements but then went back to the levels it has been averaging out for the last week or so.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:33

so you're not really arguing anything you just want to quibble about some arbitrary point this morning or emphasize that the move was no big deal in a wider context (neither arguments being relevant to my comment)... your first few posts were just waffle about where it was last week - my comment was simply in relation to the news(thus posted in this thread in the first place not the brexit thread or the trading the stock market thread!)... you know the spike we had, the fact it is up today as a result of this news (in spite of the further fall this morning)...

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:34

dowie said:
so you're not really arguing anything... your first few posts were just waffle about where it was last week - my comment was in relation to the news... you know the spike we had, the fact it is up today as a result of this news (in spite of the further fall this morning)...

No, as I pointed out, at the time of calling you out on this, the rate was lower than it had been earlier at one point in the day BEFORE these announcments, therefore it had not "gone up today". It had fluctuated up and down a bit like always and at just after 17:00 was lower than at one point before the announcement (~6am).

That is all I am arguing and it is true.

I don't really have anything more to say other than when you made the comment I took objection to you saying the gbp was "up today", because it wasn't. "it went up a bit at one point earlier in the day" might have been more accurate