The next Conservative Leader thread.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:48

Jono8 said:
spiked slightly at the news

What is this??? An acknowledgement of what I was commenting on in the first place....

though again a 1% move like that (though we've had a fair bit of volatility recently) isn't just regular noise... it was a reaction... and it did have an effect - the pound had fallen 0.8% in the morning then retraced that fall and more after this news.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:50

dowie said:
What is this??? An acknowledgement of what I was commenting on in the first place....

Except that isn't what you said or insinuated. Don't play coy, we know your agenda and your views.

Pound went up ever so slightly for a few hours today! Quick to the brexit threads on OCUK!

Today doesn't look any less or more dramatic than Wednesday, Thursday or Friday last week.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPEUR=X&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Mr Jack · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:51

I guess the question now is who will get the cabinet positions. Are we expecting a radical shake up or most jobs going back to their current incumbents? I expect a new chancellor at the very least.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:52

SpeedFreak said:
Random question if anyone knows, why did David Cameron not have a Deputy PM?

the position doesn't always exist, Gordon Brown didn't have one either

Cameron pretty much had to have one in the coalition to give Clegg a top job

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:55

Jono8 said:
Except that isn't what you said or insinuated. Don't play coy, we know your agenda and your views.

Pound went up ever so slightly for a few hours today! Quick to the brexit threads on OCUK!

Today doesn't look any less or more dramatic than Wednesday, Thursday or Friday last week.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GBPEUR=X&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

no you don't and that is the point and why I had to ask repeatedly what you were even arguing - as it turns out you were attacking a straw man and making various assumptions

I've actually been quite critical about people reading too much into short term moves thus the phrasing...

dowie said:
for people who seem to be interested in short term moves in financial markets - the FTSE is up today as is GBP

there is no agenda there just comment, but you've happily attacked some perceived agenda/straw man and waffled on about where the pound was on other days - all of which was utterly irrelevant to the comment being made. No one was claiming that today was particularly dramatic, there was a move in relation to the news that was relevant to the subject of this thread (again thus I mentioned it here, no mention in the trading the stock market thread or the general brexit thread where I've been quite critical of people clinging onto these various reactions in the markets)

datalol-jack · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:57

Uriel said:
For some reason I got very irritated while watching the news that there wasn't even a proper Tory leadership contest.

Take back control of an unreformed Westminster system?! Let me tell about the four-stage strategy, minister.

Well, we are where we are, as our select committee members tend to remark often these days. At least the country won't be rudderless for much longer. Such coronation does however put paid to notions of the form of direct democracy leave were so enamoured of in the referendum.

estebanrey · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:58

FTSE 100 dropped...we Remainers told you so!

FTSE100 Recover a few days later...we Remainers say you should look at the FTSE250 which is more about uk companies.

FTSE250 recovers a couple of weeks later...we Remainers say you should look at the value of the pound which is still down on where it was on June 23rd.

What will they say when the pound recovers?

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:58

But your comment at that time was wrong as i have explained.

You wont admit it though so we are just going to go round in circles whilst you keep trying to justify it.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:00

well it seems people are happy to cling any short term moves they feel somehow vindicate their position but the mere mention of short term moves that could be perceived to go against it then they're suddenly attacking points that haven't even been made

SpeedFreak · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:00

estebanrey said:
FTSE 100 dropped...we Remainers told you so!

FTSE100 Recover a few days later...we Remainers say you should look at the FTSE250 which is more about uk companies.

FTSE250 recovers a couple of weeks later...we Remainers say you should look at the value of the pound which is still down on where it was on June 23rd.

What will they say when the pound recovers?

We'll say wait until we actually exit because that is when we will really see an impact, market activity so far has been speculation.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:00

Jono8 said:
But your comment at that time was wrong as i have explained.

You wont admit it though so we are just going to go round in circles whilst you keep trying to justify it.

no it wasn't wrong, you just didn't read/understand it - yes you're going round in circles as you're making a point I've already corrected... bringing up some arbitrary and irrelevant point about where GBP was at 6am etc..

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:01

dowie said:
no it wasn't wrong, you just didn't read/understand it - yes you're going round in circles as you're making a point I've already corrected

I fully read and understood it. It was wrong

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:04

Jono8 said:
I fully read and understood it. It was wrong

yet you can't explain why... (bearing in mind it took about four posts for you to realise your % calculations were out by a few decimal places)

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:05

dowie said:
yet you can't explain why...

Im sorry you cant see why then. I have explained it thoroughly.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:11

Jono8 said:
Im sorry you cant see why then. I have explained it thoroughly.

where? Because it was at X rate at 6am?

I have already answered that but since you didn't seem to understand I'll try another example.

Suppose the FTSE opens at 6000... suppose it is a really volatile day and it rises to 6204 after lunch on the back of say non farm payroll figures... it then closes later at 6143 (maybe with further detail the figures wasn't so bullish)...

Did the FTSE finish up that day? Or if someone said the FTSE was up that day at some point in the afternoon would they be correct? Yes!

Yet according to your logic because it isn't at the highest point it has been at 6204 then it somehow isn't 'up'?

Do you not see why that is wrong? Why in the context of that trading day the FTSE is still up and it doesn't have to be at the highest point it has been at within that time period for that statement to be true but rather it just needed to be higher than where it opened.

Was GBPUSD higher at the time I made my statement than it was at the start of today - yup! Was it higher than some arbitrary time this morning picked by you for the purpose of arguing some point you're still unable to explain - nope... but so what? So far you're not sure what you're arguing and the fact you're using to make an argument with isn't really relevant nor does it contradict the post in the first place.

stewski · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:14

estebanrey said:
FTSE 100 dropped...we Remainers told you so!

FTSE100 Recover a few days later...we Remainers say you should look at the FTSE250 which is more about uk companies.

FTSE250 recovers a couple of weeks later...we Remainers say you should look at the value of the pound which is still down on where it was on June 23rd.

What will they say when the pound recovers?

When the pound recovers and the FTSE 250 is flying I'll mostly say great, the leavers were right, now when can we ditch the foodbanks and zero hour non jobs and crushing cuts to public services in my country.

Rroff · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:15

estebanrey said:
FTSE 100 dropped...we Remainers told you so!

FTSE100 Recover a few days later...we Remainers say you should look at the FTSE250 which is more about uk companies.

FTSE250 recovers a couple of weeks later...we Remainers say you should look at the value of the pound which is still down on where it was on June 23rd.

What will they say when the pound recovers?

FTSE 250 hasn't recovered aside from being 3-4% down still on a technical recovery the movement isn't a recovery (yet) there is a lot more at play.

You also have to factor in things like people seeing it as a good time to pay off debt in pounds which can provide short term offset against a trend or precipitate a trend - we need a lot more time to see the complete picture.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:18

stewski said:
When the pound recovers and the FTSE 250 is flying I'll mostly say great, the leavers were right, now when can we ditch the foodbanks and zero hour non jobs and crushing cuts to public services in my country.

when you get a competent opposition that could realistically win a general election

estebanrey · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:20

Rroff said:
FTSE 250 hasn't recovered aside from being 3-4% down still on a technical recovery the movement isn't a recovery (yet) there is a lot more at play.

You also have to factor in things like people seeing it as a good time to pay off debt in pounds which can provide short term offset against a trend or precipitate a trend - we need a lot more time to see the complete picture.

How can you not describe the current trend as a recovery?

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 23:22

dowie said:
where? Because it was at X rate at 6am?

I have already answered that but since you didn't seem to understand I'll try another example.

Suppose the FTSE opens at 6000... suppose it is a really volatile day and it rises to 6204 after lunch on the back of say non farm payroll figures... it then closes later at 6143 (maybe with further detail the figures wasn't so bullish)...

Did the FTSE finish up that day? Or if someone said the FTSE was up that day at some point in the afternoon would they be correct? Yes!

Yet according to your logic because it isn't at the highest point it has been at 6204 then it somehow isn't 'up'?

Do you not see why that is wrong? Why in the context of that trading day the FTSE is still up and it doesn't have to be at the highest point it has been at within that time period for that statement to be true but rather it just needed to be higher than where it opened.

Was GBPUSD higher at the time I made my statement than it was at the start of today - yup! Was it higher than some arbitrary time this morning picked by you for the purpose of arguing some point you're still unable to explain - nope... but so what? So far you're not sure what you're arguing and the fact you're using to make an argument with isn't really relevant nor does it contradict the post in the first place.

At the time of your post gbp to usd was about 0.15% higher than opening trading. My point about 6am was that at the time of posting it had dropped lower than it was at at one point before the announcement suggesting that leadsom pulling out had very little affect overall.

If that is "up today" in your book then great, enjoy it