The next Conservative Leader thread.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:37

Jono8 said:
No, as I pointed out, at the time of calling you out on this, the rate was lower than it had been earlier at one point in the day BEFORE these announcments, therefore it had not "gone up today". It had fluctuated up and down a bit like always and at just after 17:00 was lower than at one point before the announcement (~6am).

That is all I am arguing and it is true.

objectively it was up today and has been up 'today' ever since I made that comment... whether it was higher or lower than some other arbitrary point you've chosen from earlier today simply isn't relevant. It doesn't counter anything I've posted thus the question of what exactly you're arguing

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:39

dowie said:
objectively it was up today

Not at the time you made your comment it was not. Before the announcement today at around 6 am it was higher.

delta0 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:42

The UK has just fast forwarded the appointment of the new prime minister. This removes a lot of uncertainty and delay. Of course the markets are going to respond positively to this! FTSE 100 is now in bull territory, the FTSE250 is getting close to 17,000 again and the pound is going back up. As things are worked through and negotiations progress this will only get better.

delta0 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:47

Moses said:
Or, you know, they're thinking that May being leader makes a Brexit, or no single market access, less likely... but if it becomes more likely again then things could get worse..?

The markets price in the most likely scenario.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:47

Jono8 said:
Not at the time you made your comment it was not. Before the announcement today at around 6 am it was higher.

Yes at the time I made my comment... half of this seems to be you not understanding the comment and ignoring my earlier questions like what is the relevance of '6am'?

Stating something is up on the day doesn't mean it is at the highest point it has ever been within that time period but simply higher than where it started.

Nate--IRL-- · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:55

Moses I'm going to disagree with you - I can't see May not invoking A50.

Nate

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:56

dowie said:
Yes at the time I made my comment... half of this seems to be you not understanding the comment and ignoring my earlier questions like what is the relevance of '6am'?

Stating something is up on the day doesn't mean it is at the highest point it has ever been within that time period but simply higher than where it started.

Now we are just arguing over what arbitrary time you want to pick today and what time I pick which is ridiculous.

I have already stated everything I wanted to. When you made your comment it was not "up" by any meaningful amount compared to the start of trading today and as I said at around 6am it was actually higher before any of this conservative leader stuff happened (remember, what this thread is about), making your point completely moot in the context of this thread.

delta0 · 11 Jul 2016 at 20:57

Moses said:
Yes, so everything went to **** when Leave won. Now a remain supporting person has come in it's slightly less likely to happen so there's a slight improvement. That's not to say we're back to pre-referendum land of milk and honey territory... or that 'this will only get better', as you laughably assert.

I'm not sure she was the most committed to the remain camp. More likely positioning herself with Cameron. However I think she has been less abrupt than Leadsom and so she is likely to get the UK into a favourable position. This the market will begin to price in. The market will look for information from negotiations with the EU and wih other countries outside the EU. They will also be looking at the new policies and actions the government will make to remove uncertainty.

The markets expect article 50.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:12

Jono8 said:
Now we are just arguing over what arbitrary time you want to pick today and what time I pick which is ridiculous.

I have already stated everything I wanted to. When you made your comment it was not "up" by any meaningful amount compared to the start of trading today and as I said at around 6am it was actually higher before any of this conservative leader stuff happened (remember, what this thread is about), making your point completely moot in the context of this thread.

no you're arguing about arbitrary times - what relevance is 6am? (I think I've asked a few times yet got no reply)

the general comment was that it was up today - that was made in relation to this news... if you want to look further then look at where it was immediately prior to the news just before lunch...

stewski · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:12

Nate--IRL-- said:
Moses I'm going to disagree with you - I can't see May not invoking A50.

Nate

I agree May will attempt to invoke article 50 (at what point in time is unclear) what's interesting is if she will need to/be able to command a majority in the house at that time.

Nate--IRL-- · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:27

Ahh I get your point now. IMO Brexit is inevitable, in the short term at least, as Single market access can only be applied for after completing leaving.

Nate

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:28

I think we might have EEA- but May seems less likely to budge as much on immigration than Boris - meaning we'd have to compromise other things if she wants to push heavily on that

she's certainly a better option than Leadsom though and it is the 'not Leadsom'/not full brexit/at least someone experienced.... news that is the positive really

stewski · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:31

dowie said:
I think we might have EEA- but May seems less likely to budge as much on immigration than Boris - meaning we'd have to compromise other things if she wants to push heavily on that

she's certainly a better option than Leadsom though and it is the 'not Leadsom'/not full brexit/at least someone experienced.... news that is the positive really

A bag of crazy cats is better than Leadsom.

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 21:58

dowie said:
no you're arguing about arbitrary times - what relevance is 6am? (I think I've asked a few times yet got no reply)

if you want to look further then look at where it was immediately prior to the news just before lunch...

*sigh*

FishFluff · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:13

dowie said:
she's certainly a better option than Leadsom though and it is the 'not Leadsom'/not full brexit/at least someone experienced.... news that is the positive really

Given May's voting record though it's like choosing between a punch in the face or a punch in the ****.

Tunney · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:21

I for one welcome our new Overlord.

Please don't look at my Google search history, please don't look at my Google search history...

Uriel · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:27

For some reason I got very irritated while watching the news that there wasn't even a proper Tory leadership contest.

dowie · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:37

Jono8 said:
*sigh*

erm immediately before the news became apparent isn't arbitrary being the point!

SpeedFreak · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:40

Random question if anyone knows, why did David Cameron not have a Deputy PM?

Jono8 · 11 Jul 2016 at 22:47

dowie said:
erm immediately before the news became apparent isn't arbitrary being the point!

Yes, the pound fluctuated like normal today and spiked slightly at the news, then returned to trading at roughly what it was trading at at the start of the day which is within the margin of what it has been trading at for most of last week.

So for today at least , this news has had very little affect, if any, on the pound.