Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Minusorange · 7 Apr 2020 at 20:35

Ironic Namesake said:
Until we see some earnings come out ... I don't think we'll know the full effects and how much has been priced in and how much hasn't, market is very erratic and probably will be for a while

Of course, market seems to be very reactionary at the moment vs actually being priced in for anything, there's already talks of another round of stimulus packages too :eek:

platinum87 · 7 Apr 2020 at 21:05

Skeptic said:
Appreciate you offering a more detailed response!

However, if I'm to read correctly, you have been preparing since last year, meaning you have missed most of the best days in the market over that time? I.e. through trying to time, you have lost out on the later stages of the most recent bull, which was pretty damn significant.

Why do you think, if your assumption was wrong before, that it'll be correct this time? Not being pedantic here, just interested in the bear case.

I did not miss anything, if i had simply invested as before, i'd be sitting on a bigger loss.

I am not timing anything, i just learned enough to realize and adjust, i.e. get rid of US stocks, buy gold, and build up cash

And i am not wrong, quote me after 1 year.

Skeptic · 7 Apr 2020 at 21:23

platinum87 said:
I did not miss anything, if i had simply invested as before, i'd be sitting on a bigger loss.

I am not timing anything, i just learned enough to realize and adjust, i.e. get rid of US stocks, buy gold, and build up cash

And i am not wrong, quote me after 1 year.

This, by virtue, is timing. By not being 'in' you are timing your entry. Anyway, I see by your timeline of 1 year that we are on different paths here, so I wish you well.

The_Abyss · 7 Apr 2020 at 21:26

Canadian banks offering silly returns now for money - up to 180bps for 12 months. A lot of their funding from oil and gas companies has dried up as demand has fallen, so they're hugely short on liquidity.

scerbera · 7 Apr 2020 at 22:58

There is a possible head and shoulders bottom in on the indices, and we have had a false breakout on pm, there is huge potential upside on pm's as it looks today. Shares I have been in and out of over the last 3 weeks, barc, bp, currently holding psn, lloy, lgen, av, tw, 3*oil, and looking to take profits this week. I have one i'm holding for long term started buying under 1300 which is imb. not as cheap as it was but divi not going to change, hugely cash generative and it's safe imo.

I also have a huge holding in an aim stock in vast circa 3%, just about to get diamond license signed off, has lots of things going for it and should see a quick run back up to at least 0.52p.

silversurfer · 7 Apr 2020 at 23:40

Inflation writes off the debt is the ongoing strategy, it wouldn't be serviceable under any normal monetary policy. A good reason for prices to rise is when sterling loses value so have to keep track of both, thats been minor just last days.
PM having a more serious issue is of concern, Im not sure if they are being careful or actually under playing how serious it is but I know of someone who has had elevated temperature 16 days which doesnt seem right and no further (serious) symptoms :confused:

so its hard to guess

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1247344694310379520?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjc18y&refsrc=email

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inve...rket-were-not-in-the-clear-yet-104234346.html

My general take would be to expect a double peak to virus effects and cases even. Inversely a low now, a reasonable buy take profits then buy on future lows which will be a more normal flat bottom pricing vs extended factors.

2636 SP500 is just a loop, thats not clear direction either way yet. I got some AAZ and others previous which are risk on but I'd expect another chance to buy. Its not going right up because speculators borrow to buy and then sell early as they got no choice to hold it really, how we develop longer term is more boring to consider. Short stocks is long cash just as they introduce a lot more cash supply via loose money. Tons harder to be right short and some of these yields are good to pay imo.
CNA is a total wreck, is it that bad fundamentally, utilities could be the smart compromise

Richdog · 8 Apr 2020 at 05:38

So what do you think guys, has the market now fully turned and we will see no more drops?

StriderX · 8 Apr 2020 at 06:15

Richdog said:
So what do you think guys, has the market now fully turned and we will see no more drops?

No. History would presume otherwise. But then again, who knows.

Richdog · 8 Apr 2020 at 07:08

StriderX said:
No. History would presume otherwise. But then again, who knows.

Thanks. Just to clarify, I mean in the short-term during this pandemic, not no more drops ever. And regarding the "who knows", yup of course it's all just thoughts, opinions and edumacated guesses, hence why we have a nice big thread to discuss it.

Yucca · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:03

The_Abyss said:
Canadian banks offering silly returns now for money - up to 180bps for 12 months. A lot of their funding from oil and gas companies has dried up as demand has fallen, so they're hugely short on liquidity.

Can you explain what you mean by this? Genuinely interested but have no idea what your talking about lol

Yucca · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:05

scerbera said:
There is a possible head and shoulders bottom in on the indices, and we have had a false breakout on pm, there is huge potential upside on pm's as it looks today. p.

What does this mean? Serious question.

Ironic Namesake · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:24

Yucca said:
Can you explain what you mean by this? Genuinely interested but have no idea what your talking about lol

Canadian Banks are short on cash and giving 180 bps (1.8%) in return on deposits

Skeptic · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:28

Slight breather today? Might limit down when USA opens, but I'm a buyer today. Lots of positive noise out of Wuhan, if it is to be believed.

413x · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:34

Well Av have dropped their dividend

Might sell out while it's flat

scerbera · 8 Apr 2020 at 09:49

413x said:
Well Av have dropped their dividend

Might sell out while it's flat

need to be quick in this market, no room for sentiment

Yucca · 8 Apr 2020 at 12:31

413x said:
Well Av have dropped their dividend

Might sell out while it's flat

WHat do you mean by 'while its flat' ? Sorry if its a silly simple question... Trying to learn.

413x · 8 Apr 2020 at 12:43

Yucca said:
WHat do you mean by 'while its flat' ? Sorry if its a silly simple question... Trying to learn.

Sorry, just meant that it's same as price I bought it. So flat meant no profit no loss. Best not to take what I say. I'm no pro!

Minusorange · 8 Apr 2020 at 12:54

Richdog said:
So what do you think guys, has the market now fully turned and we will see no more drops?

I can't find the video but while watching yahoo finance yesterday one of the analysts they had on was saying on average 7 times out 10 the market will retest the bottom, when it falls it falls around 80% but he never gave odds on it falling to that 80% vs recovering once tested

englishpremier · 8 Apr 2020 at 14:20

I don't know if I'm allowed to ask but can anyone PM me a link to Trading212? Fancy trying them out in additional to my current broker and might as well take advantage of their invite a friend offer.

Trusty · 8 Apr 2020 at 14:24

englishpremier said:
I don't know if I'm allowed to ask but can anyone PM me a link to Trading212? Fancy trying them out in additional to my current broker and might as well take advantage of their invite a friend offer.

I would use IG personally...