Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Skeptic said:
Some dropped approx 40% from their highs! Surely that was dramatic enough? You might still get your chance though...
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They didn’t drop as much as the 08 crash. And in March when they did drop so much people hadn’t really started dying in crazy numbers yet. Unemployment had not gone crazy yet. And companies hadn’t began to go into administration.

I can only see things getting worse in the real world. That’s why I’m so shocked that the markets have recovered so much.

I mean Trump wasn’t even taking the outbreak in New York seriously until a few days ago. And it seems likely America will see a huge death toll in the coming weeks. Plus millions more unemployment.
 
Yucca said:
So are you of the opinion that the markets are likely to hold or keep going back up?
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I'm 70% confident we've now seen the bottom. Western governments have made it clear that they will support that markets at any cost. We're looking at another decade of falling living standards, but easy times for the multinational corporates that can dodge their tax obligations and suckle on the teat of free money.
 
Yucca said:
They didn’t drop as much as the 08 crash. And in March when they did drop so much people hadn’t really started dying in crazy numbers yet. Unemployment had not gone crazy yet. And companies hadn’t began to go into administration.

I can only see things getting worse in the real world. That’s why I’m so shocked that the markets have recovered so much.

I mean Trump wasn’t even taking the outbreak in New York seriously until a few days ago. And it seems likely America will see a huge death toll in the coming weeks. Plus millions more unemployment.
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It's likely the markets dropped as people panic because of the whole unknown of it all. As they say, markets hate uncertainty.

Now countries are starting to see some improvement and falls in cases/deaths, governments are printing money to keep people employed and help businesses out.

Whilst bad times are ahead, they're more a known quantity than a complete unknown.
 
Yucca said:
They didn’t drop as much as the 08 crash. And in March when they did drop so much people hadn’t really started dying in crazy numbers yet. Unemployment had not gone crazy yet. And companies hadn’t began to go into administration.

I can only see things getting worse in the real world. That’s why I’m so shocked that the markets have recovered so much.

I mean Trump wasn’t even taking the outbreak in New York seriously until a few days ago. And it seems likely America will see a huge death toll in the coming weeks. Plus millions more unemployment.
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Yes, all true! However, it’s clear that the market is not fully linked to the goings on in the world - at least not the ones we think should affect it. So, there’s two choices: accept that we don’t know what the market will do, short term, and just strap in for the ride, expecting that it will go up long term. Or don’t be in the market at all.

Either is respectable, but a mid ground between them both is risky as heck. Save the risk for the single company bets...
 
Crazy.

Aviva up 11 percent today
Glad I bought in

Not really sure why
Still seems like this is far far from over
 
FISHGUTS said:
Seeing your 70% post makes people like me think it's worth a punt.
I can afford the loss.
;)
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Hey, not a bad idea. It's just that the 'I've never bought stocks before but...' crowd that are what the the institutional investors feed off. I wouldn't be surprised to see another sharp downward correction as big boy day traders gobble up this FOMO money with shorts.
 
Everyone can afford the loss until they see a -50% swing and sell on the low. Do not take investment advice from this forum for the love of god. Make your own mind up and tell us what you will do.

Or YOLO 5k on a single share - but tell us that too:D
 
I jumped on this bandwagon the other day - got some spare money lying around doing nothing that is some profits from matched betting a while ago. Put it in a stocks and shares ISA and picked some FTSE100 ETFs. Found the whole process quite easy. Probably spent more time deciding which company to open the ISA with - went with one with no fees - some seem to charge loads, and I didn't want that.

I intend to leave it there for a year or two and see what happens. If I make a few quid, excellent. If i lose some or all of it, then so be it - i'll be a bit annoyed, but as it's not money that's come from my savings/pension etc, I can afford to lose it. In no way should what I've done be taken as any kind of advice!
 
Tweek_1984 said:
Could somebody explain to me why the market is rallying, without tongue in cheek? Seriously, what's going on? Is this FED money being pumped in?
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News from some countries is more positive. Progress being made towards a vaccine. More countries have gone through the worst so we have a more accurate model of what might happen. New ISA season so money being invested. The list is endless, but then again so is the 'bad' news. Just the market doing what it does, I suppose.
 
Tweek_1984 said:
Could somebody explain to me why the market is rallying, without tongue in cheek? Seriously, what's going on? Is this FED money being pumped in?
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I always like questions like this because it always reminds me of the fundamentals; the only thing that makes share prices go up is buy orders.

A company could post the best financials of the decade, profits out of this world, the promise of a 50% dividend, and a no-risk guarantee from their government... but if nobody bought more shares then the price wouldn't go up.

I'm sure you know that, but I always like reminding myself too, because basically the only thing that makes prices go up is people, and people can be wrong, or have absolutely no rhyme or reason to their timing. Most increases or decreases in a share price have some kind of basis (ie "oh it's because they've just announced their annual profits") but there's always the human variable.

Ditto for the other way round as well, of course.
 
Whether or not the bottom has been passed, this illustrates to me the principle of remaining rational in all circumstances and not getting too taken in with market sentiment and whatever the current news agenda is at that time.

Generally, when everyone is flapping and running around screaming, things are unlikely to be as bad as they’re expecting. When optimism is endless and people are talking up ever new highs on the FTSE, eventually it’ll run out of steam. It’s very difficult to see past the above scenarios, because often those espousing the wisdom are experienced investors or analysts (or are presented as such). Herd mentality is investing is still very strong, and probably will be while ever people are people.
 
Tweek_1984 said:
Could somebody explain to me why the market is rallying, without tongue in cheek? Seriously, what's going on? Is this FED money being pumped in?
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Quite often, the worst drops are in the early phases of a bad news event, as uncertainty is at its peak. When a situation stabilises or shows signs of stabilising, confidence begins to return. The worst may still be to come in terms of deaths, but we are expecting it, and are able to quantify it to some degree. The more information and certainty companies and the market have, the more they like it.
 
What we haven't really seen yet is the impact of this on businesses mind. The government have bailed out some businesses short term with cheap loans, but if they survive the lockdown, they're then going to be stuck trying to pay down the loans for years. Although I don't discount the possibility that the government simply writes them off if it becomes apparent that the debt is strangling a recovery.

Big cap businesses with big cash piles are probably going to come out of this very well, as their competition is either bankrupt or laden with debt. Imo this is why the major indices are up.
 

mid_gen said:
I'm 70% confident we've now seen the bottom. Western governments have made it clear that they will support that markets at any cost. We're looking at another decade of falling living standards, but easy times for the multinational corporates that can dodge their tax obligations and suckle on the teat of free money.
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How can you be so confident ? We didn't even retest the bottom


“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

― John Maynard Keynes
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Not to mention, is everyone just expecting everything to go back to normal once we get over the worst of the virus and lockdowns are lifted like flipping a switch ? Even without a cure ?

Don't get me wrong a healthy economy is a good thing, it means people aren't ****** but realistically I don't see how people aren't ****** for the next 6 months at least and then the lag of that economically

MW-GR982_colomb_20181018035201_NS.jpg


We're still in bubble territory even with the 30% crash we had in March, now we're going back up like everything is fine ? It took from May 08 to Feb 09 for the GFC to hit bottom, these things aren't done in a month or 2
 
Minusorange said:



How can you be so confident ? We didn't even retest the bottom





Not to mention, is everyone just expecting everything to go back to normal once we get over the worst of the virus and lockdowns are lifted like flipping a switch ? Even without a cure ?

Don't get me wrong a healthy economy is a good thing, it means people aren't ****** but realistically I don't see how people aren't ****** for the next 6 months at least and then the lag of that economically

MW-GR982_colomb_20181018035201_NS.jpg


We're still in bubble territory even with the 30% crash we had in March, now we're going back up like everything is fine ? It took from May 08 to Feb 09 for the GFC to hit bottom, these things aren't done in a month or 2
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So confident? Only 70% :P

What the stock markets do has little to do with the health of the economy. You have the look at the money supply, there's vast amounts of it available, for basically nothing, and no returns available anywhere else (maybe property, which I why I don't think the property market will crash).
 
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