Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

It's a game. buy back in now and cash out next collapse.

Here we go yeeehaw.....

If I can win as much as last time I'll be able to outright buy a property here in a month or 2....
 
mid_gen said:
What the stock markets do has little to do with the health of the economy. You have the look at the money supply, there's vast amounts of it available, for basically nothing, and no returns available anywhere else (maybe property, which I why I don't think the property market will crash).
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Most of this free money is in the form of loans though, eventually it will have to be paid back

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/c...tock-600m-loan-government-peak-102614308.html

Up 25% because it has taken on £1.1 billion in new debt whilst all flights are grounded, in what normal world would that make sense ?

EasyJet’s stock was also buoyed by continued optimism that the global COVID-19 pandemic may have reached its peak. Spain, Italy and France all reported sustained dips in death rates overnight. The news helped stocks rise for second day in a row.
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This is incredibly short sighted thinking especially with the risk of 2nd waves and no cure yet in sight, so the lockdowns get lifted for a few weeks/months and infections start to spread again and we have to lockdown again ? How is that a positive future ? Peoples spending habits are going to be very very different for 6 months to a year until we're all safe and even then there's no guarantee people will be the same as they become more concerned of something happening again so they turn to saving money in order to be protected in the future, that's without factoring in potential recession/depression and governments piling up the national debt
 
Pointless trying to rationalise it at this point. All the theory about why it should be down, and yet today looks to be another storming day.

Could have bought in Sunday night and be sitting on +10% by this point. Shame to have missed this rally! Yes it defies logic - probably we will come crashing down - but maybe we won't.

America flying again just now!
 
Skeptic said:
Pointless trying to rationalise it at this point. All the theory about why it should be down, and yet today looks to be another storming day.

Could have bought in Sunday night and be sitting on +10% by this point. Shame to have missed this rally! Yes it defies logic - probably we will come crashing down - but maybe we won't.

America flying again just now!
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Not trying to rationalise the short term rises, it's more rationalising why these rises are potentially dangerous to get swept up in, FOMO is a helluva drug, I'd imagine the positivity is going to continue for at least a week/few weeks until reality sets in and people realise that everything isn't fine and things aren't quickly going back to as it was before the virus became a problem
 
Perhaps! Let’s say it goes on for 2 weeks, and another +10% is added. Those who bought in when things were really bad (-35%) would need to see another catastrophic drop for them to end up losing money. I can’t see how the news can get much worse. If us nobodies on some random computer forum can see that ‘earnings will be bad’, then surely the market can too, and thus it is anticipated...

Just my 2p. I could well be wrong and if so, so bet it! I just think these last few weeks have cemented the thesis that none of us know what’s really happening, so trying to predict is foolish.
 
Skeptic said:
Perhaps! Let’s say it goes on for 2 weeks, and another +10% is added. Those who bought in when things were really bad (-35%) would need to see another catastrophic drop for them to end up losing money. I can’t see how the news can get much worse. If us nobodies on some random computer forum can see that ‘earnings will be bad’, then surely the market can too, and thus it is anticipated...

Just my 2p. I could well be wrong and if so, so bet it! I just think these last few weeks have cemented the thesis that none of us know what’s really happening, so trying to predict is foolish.
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The bit in bold is your mistake.
 
It's surprising that it broke that resistance area tbh, i still think it needs to retest the lows again.

The 1929 depression, there was a large rally just like this and then it slowly just bled down to new lows, taking about 80% off the stock market.
The 1987 crash, it tested the low and bounced off it and didnt go lower.

Either way, it's gonna go lower again i think.

I put one trade on last night at about 12 @22,600k...had a tight stop, minimal risk trade. Annoying, but would have had massive upside. Not fussed. See how the rest of the week unfolds.

I'm thinking 25k on the DOW for the next shorting area, that would complete the bear flag
 
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Skeptic said:
If us nobodies on some random computer forum can see that ‘earnings will be bad’, then surely the market can too, and thus it is anticipated...
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There's plenty of market movers saying that lows will be retested and we're already in recession, this isn't an overnight or week or month long crisis this is going to last a long time and we'll likely see quite a few ups & downs
 
A few questions please for those of you who have some experiance:

1) I have a HL account and opened a 20k ISA prior to the Sunday deadline. But iv now noticed that HL have charges for ISA's (0.45%?) and also quite expensive charges for buying and selling shares. As I wish to pound cost average over the coming weeks, making many small buys, I assume its better for me to move my money to a free company that does not charge for buying/selling and holding my ISA?

Who should I move to? Trading 212 is free right?

2) Iv been looking at share price, divi yeald, p/e ratio, buy/sell volume etc on several companies. Some FTSE100, some US stocks. Is there a way I can see all this info in one place rather than googling each individual stock? Ie can I build my own customised dashboard where I can see all the info and latest news on the companies im intersted in next to one another?

3) My 'strategy' was to buy and hold long term good divi payers. Rather than googling each one, is there a way I can see each companies divi LIKELYHOOD of paying (ie divi security/history) in one place?
 
Yucca said:
A few questions please for those of you who have some experiance:

1) I have a HL account and opened a 20k ISA prior to the Sunday deadline. But iv now noticed that HL have charges for ISA's (0.45%?) and also quite expensive charges for buying and selling shares. As I wish to pound cost average over the coming weeks, making many small buys, I assume its better for me to move my money to a free company that does not charge for buying/selling and holding my ISA?

Who should I move to? Trading 212 is free right?

2) Iv been looking at share price, divi yeald, p/e ratio, buy/sell volume etc on several companies. Some FTSE100, some US stocks. Is there a way I can see all this info in one place rather than googling each individual stock? Ie can I build my own customised dashboard where I can see all the info and latest news on the companies im intersted in next to one another?

3) My 'strategy' was to buy and hold long term good divi payers. Rather than googling each one, is there a way I can see each companies divi LIKELYHOOD of paying (ie divi security/history) in one place?
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As long as the HL ISA was opened last tax year (so on or before Sunday 5 April) then you will be able to open another ISA in this new tax year with someone else. I opened one with Trading 212, and there are no fees. I've not withdrawn any money from them yet, as I plan to leave it there for a while, but at present there don't seem to be charges for that either.
 
Skeptic said:
Solid DD and rebuttal. Good luck on your investment journey!
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I cannot explain my view, as you have access to all the information i do, and if you have reached your conclusion from that same information, then that's the end of it.

I was preparing for a bear market and a crash since last year, the virus caught me off guard, because i did not expect it to be much of a problem, but i absolutely did not expect lock-downs.

Now all the problems will come to the surface, but it will take time, whats priced in now is loss of earnings, your right. Need to price in a hell of a lot more, but it will only price itself in after it happens, slowly over the next few months.
 
platinum87 said:
I cannot explain my view, as you have access to all the information i do, and if you have reached your conclusion from that same information, then that's the end of it.

I was preparing for a bear market and a crash since last year, the virus caught me off guard, because i did not expect it to be much of a problem, but i absolutely did not expect lock-downs.

Now all the problems will come to the surface, but it will take time, whats priced in now is loss of earnings, your right. Need to price in a hell of a lot more, but it will only price itself in after it happens, slowly over the next few months.
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Appreciate you offering a more detailed response!

However, if I'm to read correctly, you have been preparing since last year, meaning you have missed most of the best days in the market over that time? I.e. through trying to time, you have lost out on the later stages of the most recent bull, which was pretty damn significant.

Why do you think, if your assumption was wrong before, that it'll be correct this time? Not being pedantic here, just interested in the bear case.
 
Skeptic said:
We'll get your short on then! All in, I'd expect!? :D
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Look at the gains of today, almost wiped out now gone from almost 1,000 points to just 170 at the moment, day traders will be loving this volatility but it's going to be awfully hard to predict anything

The market is just stupid at the moment, there's no reason for it to jump 5% on open to fall to only 0.6% an hour from closing as the news is no different today than it was yesterday, I don't think anything is properly priced in at the moment because the only bad news that happened from open is the increase in deaths for UK & US & Spain up from yesterday where people were falsely hoping that things were beginning to peak
 
Minusorange said:
Look at the gains of today, almost wiped out now gone from almost 1,000 points to just 170 at the moment, day traders will be loving this volatility but it's going to be awfully hard to predict anything

The market is just stupid at the moment, there's no reason for it to jump 5% on open to fall to only 0.6% an hour from closing as the news is no different today than it was yesterday, I don't think anything is properly priced in at the moment because the only bad news that happened from open is the increase in deaths for UK & US & Spain up from yesterday where people were falsely hoping that things were beginning to peak
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Until we see some earnings come out ... I don't think we'll know the full effects and how much has been priced in and how much hasn't, market is very erratic and probably will be for a while.

Doubled down on my SPY $263 short @ $271 out of hours .. just about break even now. I still think we have further to go down before recovering.
 
Ironic Namesake said:
Until we see some earnings come out ... I don't think we'll know the full effects and how much has been priced in and how much hasn't, market is very erratic and probably will be for a while
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Of course, market seems to be very reactionary at the moment vs actually being priced in for anything, there's already talks of another round of stimulus packages too :eek:
 
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