Afghanistan - 20 years on

chrismscotland said:
Reports that UK Forces are worried the US could just pull out of Kabul:

Britain fears US forces may pull out of Kabul airport within days | Afghanistan | The Guardian

There's also been some reports that the US and UK are barely speaking on the ground with the US annoyed that UK troops are still going in and out of Kabul to collect people for repatriation flights.
Seems like it could be quite tense over there between the "allies"
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Well the Biden administration hasn’t exactly coordinated this all that well with their allies so far so I guess anything is possible there.
 
Minusorange said:
There's that too, if US/UK invades/defends another country who in their right mind is going to want to help them when they know they'll get hung out to dry at the end
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Not really true. If the US left South Korea or Japan they have professional well equipped militaries that can operate independently. Afghanistan just isn't full of the type of people who give a ****.
 
Roar87 said:
Not really true. If the US left South Korea or Japan they have professional well equipped militaries that can operate independently. Afghanistan just isn't full of the type of people who give a ****.
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But it is true, if we have to redeploy troops in any of Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan or potential future hotbeds like Nigeria, who of the population in their right mind is going to want to ally with the deployed troops to act as interpreters or offer intel when they see what has happened in Afghanistan
 
The way the rhetoric of Boris & chums is I'm kind of expecting the Taliban to get pretty good treatment from us. Official recognition not too far away perhaps. Can't help thinking Nick Carter was put up to that interview by his boss to try and start softening the public up for the change in tack.
chrismscotland said:
Reports that UK Forces are worried the US could just pull out of Kabul:

Britain fears US forces may pull out of Kabul airport within days | Afghanistan | The Guardian

There's also been some reports that the US and UK are barely speaking on the ground with the US annoyed that UK troops are still going in and out of Kabul to collect people for repatriation flights.
Seems like it could be quite tense over there between the "allies"
Click to expand...
Wouldn't even be that surprised if the US pulled a Bagram on us and just left the airport one night, anything seems possible at this point.

Biden would stay on holiday without even bothering to make a statement but his press secretary would let us know that the US can't be looking after us for ever now can they so of course it's up to the UK to sort its own people out. Raab would also be back on holiday, Nick Carter would go on the news and tell us that really our troops at the airport were the nasty ones as they were inherently threatening the doublegood Taliban peace force. Next day they all get arrested for trespassing by the Taliban, Boris makes a speech about how the Taliban are all about justice and freedom now, so will everyone please move on. The end.
 
Jean-F said:
You’d expect it, I’d expect it, but would whoever ordered U.K. or U.S. troops back in expect it,
or even take it into consideration?
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Yes, if there are more unfortunate attacks on UK/US soil as a result of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, what would we expect to see as retaliation? This my main concern, because the Taliban will not just change their bad ways.
 
Sarge2255 said:
Yes, if there are more unfortunate attacks on UK/US soil as a result of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, what would we expect to see as retaliation? This my main concern, because the Taliban will not just change their bad ways.
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Probably be quite awhile until anything like that happens - probably won't happen while the Taliban are still stabilising the political, administrative and military situation.

My concern is what message this sends to entities like China who might see it as a weakness and start to see how far they can push things before the US pushes back.
 
Rroff said:
Wonder how things are going to go with Panjshir - seems a lot of special forces, etc. have fled there.



Can't remember where I saw them now - will have to dig in my history.

EDIT: https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1427574768174260245
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Thanks wish these were popping up on youtube, the dude needs a camera upgrade and to stop filming the ground so much.

But yeah the taliban are been sensible, they are cooperating with the evacuation efforts. The question is, what happens after?
 
chrcoluk said:
The question is, what happens after?
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Indeed - as my post above I don't think they will allow stuff which rocks the boat as the situation stabilises but the long term is a big question and a lot will depend there on who backs them as well - the likes of Russia, etc. will see it as a proxy mechanism for putting pressure on the west.
 
Yeah they have pushed the Taliban out of a town north of Kabul - I can't remember details now - and AFAIK still hold it. Last reports were the Taliban weren't looking to contest at this point.

Hard to get any real details on numbers and capabilities, etc. but looks like they have a fair number of fighters including a rumoured 10K former Afghan special forces, etc. who've joined and even some limited air capabilities albeit probably won't be able to maintain that - probably just stuff people have fled to them in. From what I can dreg up on Twitter looks like entire brigades, albeit probably depleted in numbers, have in some cases fled to them complete with their equipment.

Can't verify but:

https://twitter.com/bactriann/status/1426937980241993733

https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1427291780295405579

EDIT: Second picture is apparently a detachment who'd already been sent there in the last few weeks.
 
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chrismscotland said:
Reports that UK Forces are worried the US could just pull out of Kabul:

Britain fears US forces may pull out of Kabul airport within days | Afghanistan | The Guardian

There's also been some reports that the US and UK are barely speaking on the ground with the US annoyed that UK troops are still going in and out of Kabul to collect people for repatriation flights.
Seems like it could be quite tense over there between the "allies"
Click to expand...

If the US do this after the cluster of the past month then Europe should no longer consider them a trusted NATO ally and things unchanged from Trump, worse even. We would absolutely need to start seriously engaging, updating, reviewing with our European partners on matters of war response, training, joint regional military exercises without US participation. We must no longer expect the US to be the backbone of any resistance, beit logistical or otherwise to serious incursions into our borders. It about time EU+UK counties started looking at their military budgets and projects with US out of the equation, some long term planning.

The west failed to predict the next "war", the 1998 UK Strategic Defence Review did us no favours for fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq. It wasn't a sophisticated cold war era enemy with jets, long range missiles, tanks, jamming etc. Ironically a lot of the stuff from that review may come handy should things kick off in Europe, with a tardy US dragging it's feet.
 
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chrcoluk said:
It is as if all the people who wanted to be a fighter joined the Taliban and the army got those who were sent there as punishment for misbehaving and those who just wanted the money.
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Plenty of capable fighters on the Afghan government side - NDS 01-3 units, etc. but the reality was as they faced the Taliban they were stretched all over the country still configured for US interests, many hadn't been resupplied or paid in months, etc. and the Taliban were able to concentrate their forces to take strategic points flanking isolated Afghan army outposts, etc. leaving them no point in fighting.

Though there were plenty of "ghost soldiers" and those who had no interest in fighting it was largely due to leadership problems from the Afghan and US government that many didn't fight when it came to it.
 
bbc.co.uk said:
US domestic airlines and civilian pilots will be allowed to fly into Kabul to conduct evacuation or relief flights, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has said.

They would need prior approval from the US Defense Department though.

Currently, they are prohibited from flying through Afghanistan airspace or into Kabul airport without permission.

A Pentagon spokesman told reporters earlier this week that the US military had assumed air traffic control at Kabul airport.

It's not clear, however, when the US will seek to use its domestic carriers for evacuation efforts.

The United States has evacuated 6,000 people since 14 August, according to the White House.
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Comparisons with Dunkirk intensify and not in a good way. But hey it was all planned this way according to Biden.
 
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