AMD on the road to recovery.

humbug · 10 Dec 2019 at 18:19

4K8KW10 said:
AMD: Our Goal is to Get 10% Server Share by Q2 2020 with 2nd Gen EPYC CPUs & to Surpass Historical Levels in Both Server & Desktop Segments

"AMD acknowledges that while their current server market share is about 7%, it's their goal over time to get back to the historical market share levels of 26% that they once had with their older Opteron server processors. But before they reach that, they have to set smaller yet still significant targets. Their current goal is to get to a double-digit (10%) server market share by Q2 2020 and we are already a few weeks away from Q1 2020."

https://wccftech.com/amd-goal-historical-cpu-market-share-server-desktop-notebook-segments/

Why does that chart stop right on Ryzen launch?

4K8KW10 · 10 Dec 2019 at 20:21

humbug said:
Why does that chart stop right on Ryzen launch?

We have to ask the source.

4K8KW10 · 13 Dec 2019 at 20:51

"AMD: ... First time in the industry, we're going to break the laws of nature that had governed the semiconductor industry for the last 30 years, which is -- it's like the fourth wall of Physics in semiconductors, Intel has a process node advantage. We were excited 4 years ago, because we thought we're going to be at parity . We didn't dream that we would be ahead ..."
https://wccftech.com/amd-we-never-dreamed-we-would-be-ahead-of-intel/

AMD's share is above the historic record of $40.88 set on March 1, 2000.

humbug · 13 Dec 2019 at 21:02

Market cap $48bn, a few years ago AMD was valued at less than $3bn.

4K8KW10 · 17 Dec 2019 at 17:13

AMD Gets Price Target Lifted to $40 at Piper Jaffray
"AMD gets a price-target boost from Piper Jaffray as the company's competitive positioning relative to rival Intel 'appears to be incrementally improving.'"

https://www.thestreet.com/investing...per-jaffray?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

humbug · 20 Dec 2019 at 18:45

AMD hits $44 on target hike to $51.50.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/35278...ium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#email_link

DarrenM343 · 20 Dec 2019 at 19:16

Very close to the all time high and it's never sustained the current price for long in the past. Price is very high (vs current earnings) but for now at least the trend looks like it's going to continue.
Great turnaround!

Boot_Loop · 20 Dec 2019 at 19:20

humbug said:
AMD hits $44 on target hike to $51.50.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/35278...ium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#email_link

Holy mackerel. It might even hit $50 a share. I know this gets said time and again, but shame on me for not buying a couple grand or so of shares when the price was $3 a share a couple years back!

Martini1991 · 20 Dec 2019 at 21:08

At the time of the low though they were quite a risky endeavour.

They've done great to rebound the way they had, and kudos to people who invested and held off selling and held all this time etc

Zeeflyboy · 20 Dec 2019 at 21:36

Boot_Loop said:
Holy mackerel. It might even hit $50 a share. I know this gets said time and again, but shame on me for not buying a couple grand or so of shares when the price was $3 a share a couple years back!

hindsight is 2020...

I managed to buy in between 17-19 bucks. Can't believe how well it's done this year - far beyond what I expected even though I was fairly sure they were going to have a good one. Every time I think about selling and cashing in the price jumps again.... going to get burned at some point but I just enjoy the ride too much lol.

I have however rewarded them by buying a 3900X so they've had some money out of me too.

4K8KW10 · 20 Dec 2019 at 21:38

Huh, if you have bought 500,000 shares when they were $2 each, now you could sell them for only $21,000,000. People with money wouldn't bother too much, TBH. Not just yet.

Zeeflyboy · 20 Dec 2019 at 21:43

Think the maths is wrong there, it would be 11 million.

44/2 = 22

22 x 500k = 11 million.

Still, just a 10.5 million profit off 500k invested. Most disappointing....

Woodsta888 · 20 Dec 2019 at 22:26

4K8KW10 said:
Huh, if you have bought 500,000 shares when they were $2 each, now you could sell them for only $21,000,000. People with money wouldn't bother too much, TBH. Not just yet.

@Doobedoo @JediFragger @Journey @LePhuronn @tamzzy @TNA

4k8k appreciation society

TNA · 20 Dec 2019 at 23:28

Woodsta888 said:
@Doobedoo @JediFragger @Journey @LePhuronn @tamzzy @TNA

4k8k appreciation society

I am starting to get worried for him. It is like he is rapidly losing brain cells. Poor thing. We should not be so harsh on him as clearly somethinga up. Hope he gets better soon.

DarrenM343 · 21 Dec 2019 at 07:58

Zeeflyboy said:
hindsight is 2020...

I managed to buy in between 17-19 bucks. Can't believe how well it's done this year - far beyond what I expected even though I was fairly sure they were going to have a good one. Every time I think about selling and cashing in the price jumps again.... going to get burned at some point but I just enjoy the ride too much lol.

I have however rewarded them by buying a 3900X so they've had some money out of me too.

At $3 their future was uncertain. At the $10+ their recovery was really starting to show through if I remember correctly.
I'm expecting a pullback at some point but think it'll just a correction. AMD are untouchable for now (vs Intel) but the valuation is really out there! Worth keeping an eye on the £ to $ situation. May Boris have many bad Brexit related days for now

4K8KW10 · 21 Dec 2019 at 08:05

DarrenM343 said:
At $3 their future was uncertain. At the $10+ their recovery was really starting to show through if I remember correctly.

The stock began rising in value as early as autumn 2016. I guess on positive news on the Zen tape-outs. So, if you had the proper information, you would invest with relatively low risk.

DarrenM343 · 21 Dec 2019 at 08:15

4K8KW10 said:
The stock began rising in value as early as autumn 2016. I guess on positive news on the Zen tape-outs. So, if you had the proper information, you would invest with relatively low risk.

Yep, but the public are were never privy to that information I don't think. And products still have to be competitive in the market - not easy to determine at that early stage (what if Intel had suddenly done something too)
The ultimate lowest price to buy is not important and that is a mistake many make (they buy low and then chase the price lower if it drops). At $3 with too many unknowns you would invest a much lower amount than you would do when you can see a recovery, both in their product line up and shareprice etc.
I was tempted to put £3-500 in at $3 as that would have been all I was prepared to risk and I remember the general market feeling back then about AMD. I'm still happy that I didn't, I bought more at a higher price that I felt was more of a no-brainer to return a profit vs what was more of a gamble at $3.

it's good to see Nvidia fighting back too. Many were keen to write them off after the massive selloff and release of the RTX series but as some predicted, they're gaining strength again. I saw investors stating they'll buy at $40. Well, that never happened.

Intel are holding up remarkably well all things considered. They're definitely not to be written off......

4K8KW10 · 21 Dec 2019 at 09:03

DarrenM343 said:
Intel are holding up remarkably well all things considered.

They are buying the customers and paying the customers to not use AMD's products. It's illegal.

humbug · 21 Dec 2019 at 09:44

DarrenM343 said:
At $3 their future was uncertain. At the $10+ their recovery was really starting to show through if I remember correctly.
I'm expecting a pullback at some point but think it'll just a correction. AMD are untouchable for now (vs Intel) but the valuation is really out there! Worth keeping an eye on the £ to $ situation. May Boris have many bad Brexit related days for now

I don't get this will for him to fail, its done now, no one can stop him. I wish him and there-in 'US' all the best in our new adventures, it is what it is, let us at least try.

DarrenM343 · 21 Dec 2019 at 09:45

4K8KW10 said:
They are buying the customers and paying the customers to not use AMD's products. It's illegal.

That might be so, although nothing appears to have been done about it, but even still the price is near it's all time high, only trades on a fraction of a P/E ratio of AMD and it pays a 2% dividend per year (AMD pay no dividend, NV a small nominal value). It's not something I expected. Any sniff of a comeback with their products (CPU and/or GPU), the price could rocket and would still be cheaper than AMD on the price to earnings ratio.
The P/E ratio's are
AMD - 213
NV - 66
Intel - 13.5
The long term average for the sector is I think around 24.
The P/E ratio of AMD is scarily high right now but if they bang out the expected earnings numbers it would support it and lower it in time.
if Intel are using dodgy tactics, it's not stopping the AMD shareprice that;s for sure.

humbug said:
I don't get this will for him to fail, its done now, no one can stop him. I wish him and there-in 'US' all the best in our new adventures, it is what it is, let us at least try.

it was more of a tongue in cheek comment. I definitely don't want the UK to continue it's problems. A strong £ is not good for anyone holding foreign assets however but we'd all prefer to see a stronger UK. If Boris & Tories get things sorted then the £ will rise.