AMD on the road to recovery.

[humbug]

They are buying the customers and paying the customers to not use AMD's products. It's illegal.

Not exactly, this time.... Intel are selling chips at full price, but with the promise of cash back later, this to keep the books looking good, like there is nothing wrong and AMD are not affecting Intel's sales, its like a Ponzi Scheme, i sell person A a CPU for £100 and put that on the books but promise to give person A £80 back later, i sell person B another CPU for £100 and promise to give them £80 back later and also put it on the books, i give person A £80 of that, i sell person C a CPU for £100................................................

AMD know this, and they know what they need to do is keep up the presure, keep forcing Intel to give their money and CPU's away, eventually that cashback debt will catch up with them, and then Intel will be in the crapper.

 

[humbug]

it was more of a tongue in cheek comment. I definitely don't want the UK to continue it's problems. A strong £ is not good for anyone holding foreign assets however but we'd all prefer to see a stronger UK. If Boris & Tories get things sorted then the £ will rise.

Ok

Edit: The market knows Intel are padding the books, they know its fake, where as AMD's books are not fake, their growth is real.

 

[humbug]

I might just add that the long term outlook for X86 looks bleak. This has an impact not just on Intel and AMD but also nVidia.

Traditional X86 customers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, China...... they are all creating their own custom ARM based chips.

Intel and AMD bread and butter is X86, for Intel its data centre, in that Nvidia are joined to Intel's hip, for AMD its Desktop, X86 based consoles and SoC outside X86, not a lot of people know this but AMD do a lot of military, medical and commercial SoC's, if you've ever flown the chances are the planes computers are powered by an AMD SoC.

While long term they all need to innovate away from their own reliance on X86 Intel and Nvidia are more vulnerable than AMD, AMD are small and efficient out of necessity to become that having to live off the X86 scraps and their SoC business, Nvidia and particularly Intel are giant whales almost entirely dependant of high margin high volume X86 to sustain themselves, Intel run MASSIVE lithography fabs, a comparable TSMC have just spend Billions on a single fab to keep ahead of the curve, even Intel do not earn that kind of money which is why they are falling behind and no they will never catch up.

 

[nomadd]

..TSMC have just spend Billions on a single fab to keep ahead of the curve, even Intel do not earn that kind of money which is why they are falling behind and no they will never catch up.

Intel makes so much money that a simple expansion to their Ireland fab costing $8 billion didn't phase them.

Intel is also in talks to build another $11 billion fab in Israel.

Edit: "Intel ups 2019 full-year revenue outlook to $71 billion" And that's in a year where, by their own admission, they have been massively supply constrained.

Be damned those pesky facts.

 

[smilingcrow]

Intel are selling chips at full price, but with the promise of cash back later, this to keep the books looking good, like there is nothing wrong and AMD are not affecting Intel's sales, its like a Ponzi Scheme, i sell person A a CPU for £100 and put that on the books but promise to give person A £80 back later, i sell person B another CPU for £100 and promise to give them £80 back later and also put it on the books, i give person A £80 of that, i sell person C a CPU for £100..

What are you basing this on?
If Intel do this and overstate earnings they will be taken to task by the Financial Authorities and shareholders and someone will end up in jail more than likely.

For it to be as bad as you imply they'd need to be losing money on CPU sales which is highly unlikely.
They still own the laptop market, have the major share of the OEM market and Enterprise.
Plus AMD don't even have the capacity to seriously impact Intel yet.
Intel can compete on the desktop up to 8C which is the bulk of the market.
HEDT they are in big trouble above £1K but much more competitive below that.
Server is their real worry but it will take time to lose sales.
As good as things are for AMD, they started from such a small base that even quadrupling their share is not a big issue for Intel.
If Zen 2 had been cheap then there would be more pressure, but AMD are extending the desktop/HEDT price range which helps Intel.

 

[KungFuSpaghetti]

They are buying the customers and paying the customers to not use AMD's products. It's illegal.

So is doing crack, not stopped you though.

How would companies make profit if they're paying customers to buy their products? Kinda defeats the purpose surely.

 

[humbug]

So is doing crack, not stopped you though.

How would companies make profit if they're paying customers to buy their products? Kinda defeats the purpose surely.

When you have a ton of money to throw away its about stopping your competition from making any.

 

[KungFuSpaghetti]

When you have a ton of money to throw away its about stopping your competition from making any.

With the way nothing is a secret in this day and age, Intel would unlikely take such a stupid risk. It's far fetched to say the least, despite past stunts.

 

[humbug]

With the way nothing is a secret in this day and age, Intel would unlikely take such a stupid risk. It's far fetched to say the least, despite past stunts.

Not now that they have reprimanded for doing it in the past, there are other ways of doing it tho, buy backs and cash backs.

 

[Steampunk]

With the way nothing is a secret in this day and age, Intel would unlikely take such a stupid risk. It's far fetched to say the least, despite past stunts.

You do know they got massively fined all over the world for this about a decade ago? Sure, they called it something else (exclusive marketing and the like), tried to hide what they were doing, but it was exactly paying companies not to sell AMD CPUs in any of their products. If there are any loophole to enable them to skirt around the laws, that's exactly what they are doing, and Intel will be lobbying for laws that let them have those loopholes.

Even when they got caught and had to pay a fine and reparations to AMD, they still made ten times more profit over the period in question, at the same time as crippling their main competitor. It was a win-win for Intel, a small investment for a big return.

 

[humbug]

You do know they got massively fined all over the world for this about a decade ago? Sure, they called it something else (exclusive marketing and the like), tried to hide what they were doing, but it was exactly paying companies not to sell AMD CPUs in any of their products. If there are any loophole to enable them to skirt around the laws, that's exactly what they are doing, and Intel will be lobbying for laws that let them have those loopholes.

Even when they got caught and had to pay a fine and reparations to AMD, they still made ten times more profit over the period in question, at the same time as crippling their main competitor. It was a win-win for Intel, a small investment for a big return.

Right, Intel paid vendors like Dell, HP.... billions not to use AMD chips, AMD offered Dell a million CPU's for free, they turned it down because their benefits from Intel far outweighed the value of a million free CPU's, that's when AMD knew and took the both to court.

AMD got something like $2.5BN, which is chump change.....

 

[smilingcrow]

Intel got away very lightly and I am not aware if anyone was jailed over this?
Although, compared to Wall Street it was like a kids picnic.

 

[DarrenM343]

Can probably blame US laws to be fair. UK(EU) laws on anti-bribery & corruption are much more strict.
To be fair, AMD offering a million free CPU's for free would likely also be badly frowned upon over here, if not resulting in the issuance of a huge fine. Free CPU's in the hope of winning business would be a fail under bribery and corruption laws I think.

Imagine you worked for Dell and an Intel exec took you to an expensive dinner. That would be breaking the law here, you'd have to pay for your meal yourself. Probably acceptable in the States.

 

[Steampunk]

Can probably blame US laws to be fair. UK(EU) laws on anti-bribery & corruption are much more strict.
To be fair, AMD offering a million free CPU's for free would likely also be badly frowned upon over here, if not resulting in the issuance of a huge fine. Free CPU's in the hope of winning business would be a fail under bribery and corruption laws I think.

You'd probably be fine if you declared it and paid some sort of tax on it.

 

[4K8KW10]

Can probably blame US laws to be fair. UK(EU) laws on anti-bribery & corruption are much more strict.
To be fair, AMD offering a million free CPU's for free would likely also be badly frowned upon over here, if not resulting in the issuance of a huge fine. Free CPU's in the hope of winning business would be a fail under bribery and corruption laws I think.

Imagine you worked for Dell and an Intel exec took you to an expensive dinner. That would be breaking the law here, you'd have to pay for your meal yourself. Probably acceptable in the States.

You'd probably be fine if you declared it and paid some sort of tax on it.

Yes, it would look like some type of charity activity.


I don't understand why an i7-8700K is £349.99, while Ryzen 7 3700X is only £289.99.
Based on intel's sheer size, they should price their products much more competitively. Their production is multiple times larger than AMD's and the economy of scale might be used.

AMD's way forward is non-stop product innovation. They had to offer double the performance of i7-8700K for the same amount of money.

 

[kalvindeane]

$200+ by q4 2023.

Calling it.

 

[4K8KW10]

$200+ by q4 2023.

Calling it.

It would be good but not only because of the CPUs, let's hope the GPU division becomes much more competitive than it is today, too.

AMD Stock Isn’t a Great Buy Just Yet, but Next Year Will Be Different
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-stock-isn-t-great-145255159.html

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Yes, it would look like some type of charity activity.


I don't understand why an i7-8700K is £349.99, while Ryzen 7 3700X is only £289.99.
Based on intel's sheer size, they should price their products much more competitively. Their production is multiple times larger than AMD's and the economy of scale might be used.

AMD's way forward is non-stop product innovation. They had to offer double the performance of i7-8700K for the same amount of money.

Intels fabs are maxed and demand is still high.

 

[humbug]

Intels fabs are maxed and demand is still high.

Yeah, they have been for the past 3 years, TSMC have had the same problem this past year, they built a brand new fab to expand 7nm capacity, its coming online early next year. They have plans to expand even more. TSMC are confident enough about long term demand from their fabs to invest.

Intel have been doing a lot of talking, but not actually doing much. Not having enough capacity is a good situation to be in, sure. But their action's suggest they don't think it will last.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Yeah, they have been for the past 3 years, TSMC have had the same problem this past year, they built a brand new fab to expand 7nm capacity, its coming online early next year. They have plans to expand even more. TSMC are confident enough about long term demand from their fabs to invest.

Intel have been doing a lot of talking, but not actually doing much. Not having enough capacity is a good situation to be in, sure. But their action's suggest they don't think it will last.

The 10nm bomb has hamstrung them. If the process was on time they would have expanded production and built new fabs as usual and AMD's revival wouldn't be quite proverbial phoenix.
But at this point they're better off focusing on their 7nm process for 2023.

Us enthusiasts/desktop/gamer crew are a small group in relative terms. Fab space is precious, and the bean counters have probably concluded that it doesn't make sense for intel to sell the 8700k for 3600 prices when they have gargantuan OEM's breathing down their necks to fulfill orders.